A late shift from tight-turning Mornington to the wide expanses of Sandown Hillside has shaped Shaun Beirne’s thinking on the card, setting up a clear lay early and a race in two late.
Race 5
Currently dominating betting at $2.50, Brandjam maps nicely, but Beirne isn’t buying what the market is selling.
“Brandjam maps well, but there has to be a query over where he’s really at. He’s third-up, so sure, he could improve, but he’s now had four ratings in a row that sit well below market expectation.”
That’s the sticking point.
“None of his last four runs are good enough for this. To justify the price, he needs to get back within about 1.5 lengths of his personal best, and that’s a big bounce-back.”
The map might look friendly, but Beirne’s view is clear. The ratings say the favourite has plenty to prove, and he’s happy to take him on.
Race 8
The finale is far more straightforward.
“Savamoon and Vivacissimo are basically a pick’em. My ratings are close, but they suggest a margin of around 0.8 lengths to Vivacissimo,” says Beirne.
Consistency tips the scales.
“Last start at Flemington she sat three-wide working and still ran a rating within a length of her personal best. She’s been performing very consistently.”
Savamoon, on the other hand, comes with more questions.
“She was big two starts ago at Kyneton, but then regressed by about two lengths last start. She’s got some older figures that are stronger, but she hasn’t found those numbers for eight runs now.”
And the track switch matters.
“Savamoon likely leads and would’ve been more advantaged at Mornington before the transfer. With the move to Sandown Hillside, my interpretation is she’s less advantaged.”
“That said, I think one of the two will win.”
The Bet Legends plan of attack
Taking on Brandjam in Race 5, then cuddling the two favourites in the last and happy to lay everything else.
Be sure to head over to betlegends.com.au and sign up today.
