Summary of Best Bets:
Value: Race 2 #7 Moonhaven $12 – Don’t reckon it was fit last start and can improve.
Value: Race 8 #14 Katdeel e/w $16 – In good form, lightweight and likes the wet.
Roughie: Race 9 #4 Chakra Boy $41 (if we get to heavy this price is a play)
Turf Talk:
- Rail 4m
- Buckle up, as much as 150mm predicted leading into this meeting.
- EF is about the best track in Qld for wet weather so I expect we are OK and will get to the races.
- Stats that matter:
- Like a couple of Currie stable horses and he has trained 10 winners from last 50 runners with a positive ROI 5%.
- Vlad Duric has 5 winners from 27 rides since he has been back and riding in good form. Surprised he only has two rides here.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Always like race experience against those on debut. Wet track for unraced 2 year olds is a nightmare for punters.
(1) Swift Dragon is in the Birchley yard and there is no better 2 year old trainer in Qld. Was a big winner on debut at Rocky and been freshened since. Just a 9L trial win to top him off.
(8) Pembrey trialled like a bomb through the week. In the Gollan camp and looks a ready made horse. Might be one right out of the box.
They are the only winning chances.
Selections:
(8) Pembrey
(1) Swift Dragon
Suggested Bet: Follow the money. Quinella 1,8.
Race 2:
I was all over (7) Moonhaven first-up for Currie. There were a few scratched but it was about $23 to $4 and was plain late. One of two options, the horse was simply underdone or it’s not as good as I thought. We find out here 2nd up in a winnable race.
(8) Larado is a very promising horse and is working its way through the grades. Just feel this is a jump up and the $1.80 is under the right odds. Clearly the one to beat but happy to back Moonhaven.
(6) Royal Commodore is lightly raced and was a dominant winner at Grafton at first start for the Dunn stable. Should be right on speed and has won 2 of 3 on soft ground.
Selections:
(7) Moonhaven
(8) Larado
(6) Royal Commodore
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) Moonhaven
Race 3:
Best bet of the day has come out here.
(3) Rezone doesn’t have great wet track form but seems a better horse with Currie. Have to be forgiving of the old form? Market watch a must.
(2) Diamond Epic is in career best form and fair to say the 1800m is just perfect for it. Has won 2 of last 3 and will be one diving late.
(6) Éclair Awesome has been consistent but is a much better horse on soft ground. Can be the improver here and some value in exotics.
(7) Luton Hoo is in very good form but can’t help but feel she would like a firmer track.
Selections:
(2) Diamond Epic
(6) Éclair Awesome
(3) Rezone
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Struggling to find genuine wet trackers here.
(6) Cheval Chic was hopless last start but was stated to be too firm of a track. She is one who will appreciate rain and it brings her right into this race now.
Maybe (4) Blue Spinel might be the next best but afraid of how many might scratch here if we get the rain.
(12) Savagery Vibe is a hope but the $2.50 off the last effort seems crazy. Not for me, happy to stay out.
Selections:
(6) Cheval Chic
(4) Blue Spinel
(12) Savagery Vibe
Suggested Bet: No
Race 5:
The toppy was on top but her coming out makes this a lottery.
Maybe the Matt Dunn horses are the main danger. (8) Mrs Goldberg was $15-$21 last start and simply too good for Fabulantes who has since come out and franked that form. Looks to have upside and races on speed with 52kg.
Stablemate (6) Brutal Miss was $4.80-$3.20 in the same race and was beaten 6L. Also meets it 2.5kg worse off at the weights. Seems impossible to turn the tables but could be a very good wet tracker.
(2) Blitzburg and (3) Dragonne Rouge have good old form but haven’t been great lately.
Selections:
(6) Brutal Miss
(8) Mrs Goldberg
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Some of the form in this is nearly unbelievable. Horses getting belted in Maidens then running well in town and plenty of other weird formlines too.
(1) Giapponese was $41 out to $81 last start and beat a handful of these over 1600m on this track. It was a dominant win and looks to have good upside. Has been OK without being great on wet ground.
(2) North Pole was well held by the winner but gets a 4.5kg swing at the weights and does handle wet ground. Feel he is a better horse at 1400m so the jump to 1800m is a concern.
(11) Madame Cody is the half to Pope Cody who is doing good things in HK. He loved the wet tracks and feel this one could well be strong through the soft ground. May need this prep but feel she could be an improver.
(10) Paradise As Usual just doesn’t know how to win. Was 2nd best L400m and 200m of the race last start and that race was the main lead up for this.
(3) Barcelo was weak late last start after winning a Maiden the run before. That Sydney form is better than here and Waller trains. Still has to improve.
(4) Tacitly beat absolutely nothing last start but it was dominant and might be the one who keeps improving. Loved this trip last start and could be one of the strongest through the line.
Selections:
(1) Giapponese
(11) Madame Cody
(4) Tacitly
(2) North Pole
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Giapponese and making (11) Madame Cody a winning result too
Race 7:
Intriguing race and a few that like it wet.
No doubt the class is (1) Green Fly. Great Britan bred and in about the best stable in the land. Unlucky at Listed level last start and this is much easier. Does jump 6kg here and they opt for the senior to carry the lot.
(4) John Rambo, well it’s John Rambo. I’ve just about had enough of this bloke. Any amount of talent but always seems to have an excuse. Inside gate might not be good here either so he might have another excuse. Wet track and 55kg are suitable and he is rock hard fit. Yet another suitable race for him.
(7) Free Carry was a dominant winner first-up last prep on a Soft 7 at this track, over this trip. No official trial this time in so maybe watch the market.
One that can improve at big odds is (10) Shihab. Just a different horse in Qld and when he gets wet ground. Might be a bit rich for him but he is fitter and can improve.
Selections:
(10) Shihab
(7) Free Carry
(1) Green Fly
(4) John Rambo
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
Fair to say (6) Nails Murphy is in career best form since heading north. Has had five starts in Qld for two wins and three placings. His last win was probably his most impressive and he’s no duffer in the wet, although he’d rather drier.
I feel (14) Katdeel is limited but has some things in his favour here. The 52.5kg helps, wet track is a big positive too. Tactically versatile and will look the winner at some stage.
Think (11) That’s Molly is ready to show best but the most recent wet form is not good and has put me off.
(8) Just Flying is OK in the wet and just worried he might need one more run to bring him on and ready to win next start. Keep safe anyway.
(7) Naval Seal is consistent but not one I have much luck with. Has to go in exotics.
Selections:
(14) Katdeel
(6) Nails Murphy
(8) Just Flying
(7) Naval Seal
Suggested Bets: Could have an e/w play (14) Katdeel $16
Race 9:
Don’t like this race at all. Can make a case for nearly every horse. They will go at a decent clip as half the field want to land in the first 2-3 settling.
The toppy (1) Steady Ready can mix it up but is very good on his day. He was brave in the Millions over 1200m and back to 1000m is far better for him. Takes the claim to help.
(4) Chakra Boy is a dead set swimmer. Hasn’t been as good this prep but a genuine wet track would make the opening $41 look very inviting. Expect sharp improvement if we get to heavy.
(7) Tiger Tie is a fast horse and looking for the hat-trick of wins here. Carries the feather weight and will be hard to run down. Good strike rate for a stable who have had an unbelievable year.
(8) Power Of The Brave is airborne. Strong winner at Randwick two back and then proved too good for Yoyo Yeezy at the Sunny Coast. Handles all ground, drops 6kg off the last run and Thompson rides.
Selections:
(4) Chakra Boy
(8) Power Of The Brave
(1) Steady Ready
(7) Tiger Tie
Suggested Bets: Win (4) Chakra Boy $41 and smaller (8) Power Of The Brave
Race 10:
Very tough way to finish.
(3) Slippin’ Jimmy has won 7 of 16 and looks to have good upside. Like the claim for a good apprentice and has won a recent trial easily.
(5) Iron Man won two in a row to start the prep and then well held by a potential G1 winner last start. This is easier and feel it is a winnable race for him if he can stay off the fence.
Buggered if I can catch (6) Jonny Da Wolf but he can be on speed and his best is good enough.
What a training effort by Heathcote with (8) Press Link. First-up off 412 days and won fresh. Can only improve off that and another watch on the market.
(13) Facundo went through the grades in fine style last prep. Has won 5 of 9 and could go to another level this time in work. Gate actually looks good to me and should be right in the finish here.
Wet helps (15) Gospel Girl who looked the winner last start until the last stride when Press Link got her down. Loves this track/trip (4:2:1:1) and can add to that good record here.
I’ll be honest and say I have no idea here.
Selections:
(8) Press Link
(15) Gospel Girl
(5) Iron Man
(13) Facundo
(3) Slippin’ Jimmy
Suggested Bets: None
