The Flemington Carnival may have come to an end, but Saturday’s racing at Sandown reminds us that racing indeed does not sleep.
C.F. Orr Stakes:
While it is mostly uninteresting to me from a wagering point of view, the C.F. Orr is an amalgamation of some of the country’s premier seven-furlong horses. Beiwacht, Jimmysstar, Angel Capital and Pericles, who are synonymous with races similar to Saturday’s, are met by newcomer Shadhavar.
She has been nothing if not spectacular in her last two. She put three lengths between herself and Concord Connie, albeit under sympathetic circumstances, and was similarly dominant in the HKJC Stakes, winning with immense pace through each section.
She has run the hands off the clock, but did so only beating Tomato Toastie. Yes, that is a horse’s name.
So, it becomes a balancing act between time and form. Can she do what she’s been doing amongst a far superior assembly of horses?
And again, punters must consider that just three starts ago, she was beaten by The Stalker in an open handicap at Murray Bridge.
Racing is as hard as it is good, and she’s the epitome of that. It’s impossible to put a finger on a reason for her improvement, but then again, does it really matter? Probably not, but it would be nice to know.
Perhaps seven furlongs has made the difference, but that’s a whole lot of difference made by a furlong.
How do you price her? I don’t really know. I’m expecting slight regression, at the very least.
This race is very much position oriented, and the winner will be the runner with the best run.
Shadhavar will either lead or settle second, presumably to the rear of Beiwacht. Angel Capital, as we know, is devoid of early pace and will surely be last, or near to.
Pericles, who was scintillating and as good as he can be in the Russell Balding, has two options. It’s either last or wide for him. The better option is to be wide, but they won’t do that.
Beiwacht is favourite, and deservedly so. He has been behind his lofty standards in his last two runs, but he will have all the favours, which will be pivotal in a race with such fine margins.
I have no answer to this race, and you’ve read all of this for nothing.
If there were a bet, it would be Beiwacht in hope that he’d return to his best under suitable circumstances, but I make him 5/2, so there’s no value there.
Sandown Guineas:
Where there is value is in the Sandown Guineas.
Away from a select few, the exposed three-year-old milers have been poor.
Taige Weir sent Magna Sententia to Geelong last Saturday to win a maiden, and that he did. He settled outside the leader and drew clear in fast time. A standard form guide might suggest that he’s well out of his depth in this grade, but figures indicate that he’s very much capable of handling such a rise in grade.
I make him 7/2, and a great bet at 4/1.
Race 1:
Everything that I love about racing is Ichnusa. He’s grey, he’s a mile-and-a-half horse, he’s a handicapper, he’s lightly raced, and we’re going to make some coin out of him.
He last raced on the Tuesday of Cup Week, in a Benchmark 80 over ten furlongs. The race was largely dominated by the two leaders, who went on to run first and second. The pace was slightly slower than par to the 1200 metres, and was slackened between that point and 600 metres. Yauson and Mr O’Reilly, the leaders, were very well favoured.
Ichnusa, who was restrained to the rear of the field from the widest draw, unravelled a good sprint to improve eight positions over the last 400 metres and eventually finish fourth.
Ciaron Maher has hit some targets in staying races this spring, and I fancy that it might continue this Saturday.
I make Ichnusa $2.60.
Thoroughbred Club Stakes:
Natural Fling goes once more in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes. She’s won once in four runs in the spring, but has raced in the premier sprints among some of the country’s best. I don’t suggest at all that she’s come to the end of her preparation, but all the same, I don’t foresee her racing to her peak. So, she becomes vulnerable to a progressive filly peaking.
Aroused is the first of which I’ll be using to beat the favourite. She won in fast time on debut over five furlongs and was well fancied in the Crockett Stakes at her second start. She has plenty of speed and will be positioned on the pace. It’s reasonable to expect significant improvement at start three, and this race will lend itself to runners with her racing style, I believe. I make her $6.50, and a good bet to beat the favourite.
I backed Semantics in the Red Roses on Oaks Day, and am still recovering. She’s very fast and will settle toward the front end of the race. She is capable of improving again. I make her $11.
Nishioka is the best maiden in the country and will be tearing home over the last furlong if they overdo it in the lead. She’s finished the quickest in the Crockett and the Red Roses and is more than capable of putting things together in a race with more speed, which this will be.
Good Will Hunting: The bets
Race 1: Ichnusa
Sandown Guineas: Magna Sententia
Thoroughbred Club Stakes: Aroused, Semantics and Nishioka
