Summary of Best Bets:
Next best: Race 1 No.2 Bubbles Up
Next best: Race 1 No.8 Spice Prawn
Best bet: Race 7 No.5 Pictor
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Cracking betting race to kick off proceedings here – with the rail out +7m it looks a day you want to be up and in. Keen to side with the Waterhouse & Bott trained (2) Bubbles Up, well-bred filly who has shown above-average ability at the trials. She has lovely gate speed and is suited over the 1200m fresh, she will get out in trip in time and is worth a spec at $51 in the Oaks. (8) Spice Prawn has the race fitness edge and comes through a hot maiden last start behind Hay Street and Journeyman. She gets the right run from gate 6 and is the horse to beat. (4) Helluva Kiss will need a touch of luck from the gate, smart debut when doing her best work late. (7) Sphere peaks fourth up but may find this slightly harder, a move back to the home deck helps.
Selections:
(2) Bubbles Up
(8) Spice Prawn
(4) Helluva Kiss
(7) Sphere
Suggested Bet: (2) Bubbles Up + (8) Spice Prawn WIN
Race 2:
Good speed expected up front here over the 1200m. (3) Hay Street looks the horse to beat on paper, surprised this gelding is still a maiden. He comes through a strong rating last start effort and importantly will land up on speed here. (6) Peleus was heavily backed late last start and was a good thing beaten when strung up at a key stage in the straight. Maps to find leaders back here and has come up big odds. (1) Wan Lost should lead this field up, full of fitness now, in the mix. (4) Maidoff is another who has the right on-speed pattern to be effective here, peak fitness and finds an in-form Nash Rawiller in the saddle.
Selections:
(3) Hay Street
(6) Peleus
(1) Wan Lost
(4) Maidoff
Suggested Bet: (3) Hay Street WIN
Race 3:
Good speed expected up front here over the 1500m. (2) Double Vision rose quickly to 1400m last time out and just felt the fitness punch late, she’s had another 21 days between runs and should be full of fitness now third up. (1) Decalogue gets a lovely run in behind the speed, he’s first up and has been gelded into this prep. Back-to-back solid trials and shouldn’t be underrated. (9) Fireball Miss was sneaky good on debut, she strips fitter and goes 1200m to 1500m with 21 days between runs. (6) Willie Or Wong He rounds out the numbers after a career-best last start effort.
Selections:
(2) Double Vision
(1) Decalogue
(9) Fireball Miss
(6) Willie Or Wong He
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4:
It’s hard to go past the last start winner in (2) Centenario, eye-catching fresh effort before appreciating the extra distance second up. He moves to 2400m now and can take control from gate 1. (3) Stylebender races in the quick back-up here off a strong last start win, he’s ticked the 2400m box before and is another who will land on speed. (5) Lunar Lover brings consistent recent form to this event, another who has ticked the distance box and should find the rails in run from a good draw. (4) Liberty Park brought through last start with the rise in trip, the extra 200m here bodes well for his chances.
Selections:
(2) Centenario
(3) Stylebender
(5) Lunar Lover
(4) Liberty Park
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5:
Cracking contest here, race of the day. I couldn’t have been more impressed by the fresh win of (2) Banjora, push-button style galloper who had 2–3 gears up his sleeve. He maps a treat here and can only improve second up. (1) Caesar should find the 1-1 from gate 4, he had to overcome a map issue fresh but showed off an explosive turn of foot to do so. Intriguing to see James McDonald booked aboard (4) Astronomix, he’s ridden both of the horses mentioned above. Key weight drop here and another who lands on speed. (7) Fierce is right in this too, blew them away first up but may have a map issue early with the wide gate.
Selections:
(2) Banjora
(1) Caesar
(4) Astronomix
(7) Fierce
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6:
Another competitive race. (6) Little Iris brings back-to-back above-average ratings to this event, the form around Decorum last start stacks right up. The cherry on top is the peak fitness and on-speed pattern. (4) Aisle Two was huge from back in the field last start, the form around Caesar will look a lot clearer after race 4. Maps to get the run of the race in behind this speed. (7) Soverato was dominant first up at Canterbury, James McDonald takes over from a lovely gate but the drop back in trip looks to be a negative. Not sure what to do with (3) Samarelle here, if they are running on she looks big odds. Smart fresh SP behind the subsequent city winner Signor Tortoni.
Selections:
(6) Little Iris
(4) Aisle Two
(7) Soverato
(3) Samarelle
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7:
Keen to round out the day with the progressive (5) Pictor, he’s nominated for the Inglis Sprint this weekend too – solid push that. He’s trialled up super and is suited over the 1400m here fresh. (4) Mamushka would have been on top of this at 1200–1300m. Four weeks between runs sticking to 1400m might see this galloper vulnerable late, class horse. (1) Clancy was run off his feet last start before copping a bump in the straight, solid gate here and can bounce back swiftly. (10) My Phar Lady peaks fourth up coming off some consistent form, another who will appreciate some tempo.
Selections:
(5) Pictor
(4) Mamushka
(1) Clancy
(10) My Phar Lady
Suggested Bet: (5) Pictor WIN
