Race 2 – 4:15PM Tile Importer Plate (1300 METRES)
#6 SHOMA is a ten-start maiden, which normally raises a red flag, but the ex-NZ gelding was Group 1 placed at his most recent preparation. He competed well in Maiden and Stakes company across the ditch and this looks an ideal race to kick off his Australian career on a winning note. He has had two excellent on-speed jump-outs at Cranbourne since arriving in Melbourne, and Linda Meech has partnered him in both, which is a positive. From a low draw, expect him to roll forward and either lead or settle right on speed, as he showed versatility with his racing pattern in NZ.
#11 PERFECT NIGHT has genuine claims. She has jumped out nicely ahead of her return and from gate three Michael Dee should be able to settle her up near the speed. She contested a couple of strong Maidens last campaign and the rise to 1300m on a big track looks an ideal starting point.
#5 MELIAN is in the mix. He missed the kick in jump-outs prior to his Cranbourne debut where, unsurprisingly, he missed it again. Given the start he conceded and the fact he was held up, his effort over 1200m was sound. The step up in trip and getting to a bigger circuit are positives. Drawn wide, he likely concedes them a start again.
Suggested bet:
Backing #6 SHOMA, with a small saver on #11 PERFECT NIGHT.
Race 3 – 4:50PM Sportsbet Feed Handicap (1500 METRES)
Loved the way #1 MCWOODY has trialled for his return. He has had two Cranbourne jump-outs and hit the line strongly in both. The 1500m looks a perfect kick-off point. He overcame significant traffic issues to win on debut over 1590m at his only other fresh run, albeit in a modest race. He looks a horse that will get further as the campaign progresses, but given the sharpness of his trials, the fact Willo sticks after riding him in work, and what should be a genuine tempo here, he appeals at each-way odds.
The horse to beat is #4 BEL MEZYAAN. Hard to knock and he deserves favouritism. He maps ideally and the quick back-up from a moderately run race should hold no fears. He possesses a sharp turn of foot. The only query is the jump from 1200m to a genuinely run 1500m.
#7 MUSKITO was a trial standout prior to his strong debut win at Ararat. He set a solid tempo there, so the performance may have been better than it looked, though he was tiring late. This is tougher and the back end of 1500m remains a query at this stage.
Suggested bet:
Something each-way #1 MCWOODY.
