Shaun Beirne is preparing to take a stand again, this time at Rosehill Gardens, where he believes market confidence around a couple of well-backed runners may be slightly overstated.
With the rail out 7m and the pattern likely to favour those up on speed and near the inside, Beirne understands the logic behind the support for certain runners. Although he’s not convinced the current prices accurately reflect their true odds.
Pictor – Rosehill R9
The rail placement throws the inside draw into sharp focus, and Beirne says that’s a key driver behind Pictor’s position in the market.
“With the rail out 7 metres, it should suit horses up on speed and near the fence. Pictor from barrier one maps to get exactly that run,” Beirne said.
“Add in Mamushka rolling forward and likely controlling the tempo, and you can see why the top two in betting are attracting attention.”
Even so, he isn’t entirely comfortable with the favourite at the price.
“I thought the recent trial was okay without being outstanding.”
More crucially, his numbers aren’t quite stacking up.
“My figures can’t quite get Pictor to the current market expectation. That said, there’s often exponential improvement first-up in a second preparation, so you can’t completely dismiss that scenario.”
From a bookmaking perspective, he’s anticipating Pictor to be easy to back.
“I’d expect a bit of a drift late. Mamushka could easily tighten and start much closer to Pictor by jump time.”
Double Vision – Rosehill R3
Earlier on the card, Beirne is taking a similar view with Double Vision, despite the horse’s obvious early speed.
“He’s a fast beginner, but there’s no certainty he crosses cleanly, and either way he’s likely to have pressure,” he said.
“If he does find the rail in front cheaply, then sure, he might take running down. But looking at the race shape, I’d rather be with
something settling off speed.”
Beirne believes the anticipated tempo hasn’t been fully factored into the market.
“There looks to be enough pressure engaged to make it uncomfortable. In those scenarios, leaders need to be very well rated or clearly superior, and I’m not convinced that’s the case here.”
Ultimately, it comes back to price versus performance.
“My ratings don’t support his price. He needs to find another length, at least +1L, to justify his place in the market.”
“When the map looks a little trickier than the price suggests and the ratings aren’t quite there, that’s when we’re happy to take a stand.”
Head over to betlegends.com.au to get top odds about either of these runners, or cop the tips from Beirne and bet around the favourites!
