Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 2 No.1 Rue De Royale
- Next Best: Race 1 Backing No.1 Harry Met Sally and No.8 Ladhar
- Two-bet play: Race 7 Backing No.5 Birdman and No.7 Air Assault
Turf Talk
- Rail out 2m having been True at the last meeting. I don’t expect it to play anything other than perfect. A bit of rainfall throughout the week will really help.
- Light southeasterly winds may give those on speed an easy time, especially from 1400m and straight races.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Like (8) Ladhar. She had no luck in one run last campaign so I’d put a pen through that. Has trialled up very nicely for this return. Anthony and Sam Freedman are airborne and she has the services of Damian Lane. Additionally, she has a turn-of-foot which is a great aid in straight racing. In an even 2yo contest, have her marked favourite.
(1) Harry Met Sally looks a huge price at $26. Liked her trials this time in and think she wins with even luck at Pakenham last time out. There’s not a big leap from Maiden grade to these city 2yo races and she will make her presence felt.
(6) Gin Twist jumped-out nicely down the straight alongside the speedy Le Astro Chat between runs. She’s in the mix.
(4) The Troubleshooter has shown good speed in jump-outs. Recent was a dominant victory but time was just fair.
Fan of (5) Jacaranda. Not sure about dropping back to 1000m now after two runs at 1100m and being set for a Blue Diamond at 1200m. That said, she’s got the requisite talent and race experience.
Selections:
(8) Ladhar
(1) Harry Met Sally
(5) Jacaranda
(6) The Troubleshooter
Suggested Bet: Backing Ladhar and Harry Met Sally. Like the race.
Race 2
Reckon Jamie Melham went too slow on (1) Rue De Royale last time out, leaving him a sitting duck for Ndola. He was left in front and went 6.2L below standard to the 800m mark, leaving the race a sit-sprint, which isn’t so much his go. More speed here with (5) Regal Tycoon to chase is a positive. Good claim for Jackson Radley.
(7) Behaviour was strong to the line behind Rue De Royale last start but has to give that galloper 2.5kg and think Rue De Royale is more advantaged with a stronger tempo likely here.
(2) Dirty Grin was good down the straight two back but never went a yard at Caulfield last time out. Jamie Mott recommended the blinkers come off, but he has instead been back to the trials and went OK at Flemington. Rhys McLeod jumps back in the saddle and knows him well.
(11) Legacy Bay has been up a long time. Doubt there’s any improvement to come. Racing well without winning but maybe dropping in weight getting up to a BM78 can aid. Not convinced the drop back to 1200m (from 1400m) is ideal.
Selections:
(1) Rue De Royale
(7) Behaviour
(2) Dirty Grin
(11) Legacy Bay
Suggested Bet: Rue De Royale was heavily backed last time out and just think the race shape beat him – this looks the week to chime in.
Race 3
Speed comes from (1) Great Maximus, (5) Bons To Riches and maybe (8) Maisy.
(5) Bons To Riches should lead this at an even tempo, which will give him every chance. He trialled nicely leading into this campaign and has been flying throughout the prep, winning three from five and suffering a last stride defeat last start. His recent ratings are superior to his rivals and with a soft lead it combines to make him very hard to beat.
(1) Great Maximus will get a terrific run right on speed and should be in it a long way. Just didn’t have the toe to sprint with them in a slowly run 1200m race last time out – that’s not really his go.
(8) Maisy has trialled nicely leading into the campaign. Gets a soft run with the light weight – she can run well.
Selections:
(5) Bons To Riches
(8) Maisy
(1) Great Maximus
Suggested Bet: Could have a small play on Bons To Riches
Race 4
Strange old run from (9) Ahha Ahha at Caulfield last time out. She came off the bit a long way from home and looked like she was going to drop right out, but she got going again and was strong on the line. That was her first go at 1600m and she was five weeks between runs. Draws well, capable of settling closer than she did last start.
(8) Astral Flame is the sole leader in the race and that gives her a terrific hope. She went out 7L above standard at Cranbourne last time out and was posted three wide outside the speed, so did a good job to hang on and win given she was first-up. Gets complete control here and will give them plenty to catch.
(2) Alder resumes off a long spell but he has trialled up nicely and could run a race fresh.
Selections:
(9) Ahha Ahha
(8) Astral Flame
(2) Alder
(3) Sneaky Sunrise
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch.
Race 5
Not many 1000m horses engaged….
Ben Melham is two-from-two on (1) Bridal Waltz and she has trialled up well for this return. Ideally prefer her over further than 1000m and not mad on gate one, but she’s a very good straight track horse.
Not enamoured with the bar plates going on (3) Celui but he’s a 1000m horse in a race devoid of 1000m horses. He ran slick time winning up in Sydney first-up; Richard and Will Freedman have really got the best out of this bloke.
(2) Midwest won this race last year. He can bounce back from Caulfield last time out.
(4) McGaw has trialled up just fairly but he has upside. Don’t think 1000m is his best trip and think he had his birthday in the Danehill when beating My Gladiola and Tentyris (talk about form!). He’s short enough.
Selections:
(3) Celui
(1) Bridal Waltz
(2) Midwest
(4) McGaw
Suggested Bet: There are better betting races on the card.
Race 6
Lot of the speed is drawn down low. (10) Headbanger in gate four, (8) Gwen’s Girl in gate five, (7) Befuddle in two and (6) Educated in one. (4) Wintery in three won’t be far away, either.
Ciaron Maher holds the key to the race with (1) Bel Merci and (6) Educated heading the market.
(1) Bel Merci was very good from the tail first-up for the Maher stable in the Kevin Hayes. Stays at 1100m when I wonder if she’s looking for a touch further, but suspect her racing style will be suited down the straight. The likely strong tempo will suit her down to the ground.
(6) Educated could be a very smart filly. She hasn’t been let off the bridle in either of her wins at Tatura and Cranbourne, posting good time in her most recent win. There has also been some good form to come out of that Cranbourne victory. She’s very balanced in her action, she gets low to the ground and moves like a smart horse. Test here is stretching that out to 1100m against stronger company from a poor draw (gate one) with plenty of pressure in the race. A real test of her talent.
Think (5) La Roux can improve with the blinkers going on. Was dynamic first-up coming from an impossible position to win at Moe and then may have raced a bit flat or resented being in amongst horses at Pakenham last start (she also failed at Morphettville last campaign when copping a bump/racing in amongst the pack). Has a lethal turn of foot. Think the straight track will suit her.
(2) Thanks Gorgeous produced a good rating winning this track and trip two back. Can run well.
Selections:
(1) Bel Merci
(5) La Roux
(6) Educated
(2) Thanks Gorgeous
Suggested Bet: Something small on Bel Merci/La Roux
Race 7
A race plagued by a lack of speed. Surely they roll forward on (7) Air Assault. Hard to see much speed outside of that.
Liked (5) Birdman first-up at Flemington and with even luck he goes close to winning that Elms Handicap. Swaps gate two for gate six, which is a plus, and he has the turn-of-foot that could assist if it descends into a sit-sprint. Second-up last campaign he was a length off Ceolwulf in a Chelmsford before winning a Kingston Town and I suspect he’s come back even better this time around. With even luck, he’s the horse to beat.
Think (7) Air Assault is the key danger. Map vital. He’s going better than the formguide suggests and Damian Lane could get total control of this race.
(2) Apulia has come up the early favourite which looks the wrong price. He has trialled up just fairly between runs after winning the Perth Cup at his last start. He was able to win first-up at 1500m in the spring but that was off a long spell and with three trials under his belt – I wonder if he will have the freshness in his legs coming off a 7-week break after stretching to 2400k. He’s also drawn to need luck from gate two.
(3) Onesmoothoperator has trialled up nicely for Tim Fitzsimmons. His fresh record reads well (7-3-1-1) but that is a bit misleading as they’ve generally been over staying trips and he’s never won below 2000m. Would be some training effort to get him to win fresh at a mile, but think he’s going well.
Selections:
(5) Birdman
(7) Air Assault
(8) Enxuto
(6) Holymanz
Suggested Bet: Birdman going for a decent result, Air Assault going for a small profit – think one of the two wins.
Race 8
Speed is interesting. (3) West of Swindon has led them up in a Stutt Stakes and Caulfield Guineas so suspect he rolls forward from gate three. (1) Observer comes across and sits outside. There’s a couple of Moody runners in (8) Victorious Spirit and (5) Bingi who went back from wide draws first-up over short trips, but both have better gates up in trip and both raced on speed last campaign.
All horses either come through the Autumn Stakes (won by Observer) or the CS Hayes (won by Sixties). I think the former is the stronger form reference.
(1) Observer is a weapon. He should’ve won a Caulfield Guineas when desperately unlucky and he has just gone from strength to strength since. His return win at Caulfield was excellent, riding a genuine tempo before being simply too good. The kicker being he drops 2.5kg on his rivals having carried a penalty last time out. He’s the deserving faovuirte.
Would’ve loved to see a bit more tempo and a better gate for (2) Planet Red. He was excellent late behind Observer and he’s always been a horse that has shown plenty of talent. Still doing a bit wrong so has upside and Flemington will suit him much better than Caulfield. I’ve got him marked second favourite, just think the map is against him.
Think the map is sticky for (4) Sixties. He showed a ripping turn of foot ridden stone cold first-up at Rosehill then was equally as good settling just in behind the speed last start. Not sure he can give Observer a start and beat him; not sure he can beat him full stop.
Best roughie in the race is (8) Victorious Spirit. Very good from the tail first-up behind Observer. Think he rolls more forward second-up.
Selections:
(1) Observer
(2) Planet Red
(8) Victorious Spirit
(4) Sixties
Suggested Bet: Back Observer. Save Planet Red.
Race 9
A lot of the speed is drawn low. (4) La Astro Chat in gate five, (12) Toronado Queen gate two being the likely 1-2 in run.
Gee, (1) Nashville Jack was super first-up off a decent break in the Sunlight Classic on the Gold Coast. Has trialled nicely in Sydney between runs and gets an in-form Damian Lane in the saddle. Seems he’s a colt that has had feet issues across his career, wearing concussion plates and having had equicast/hoof filler at different stages of his career. That said, going better than ever – think he’s right in the game here.
(12) Toronado Queen has a good hope. He belted a handy field at Cranbourne fresh having put the writing on the wall with two strong trials prior. Like that he has had that 1200m run under his belt off a long spell given he’s going to try and stretch them here down the straight. Key for Logan Bates is not to fall into the trap of going too slow, as they so often do down the straight, this bloke has a good cruising speed so they need to use that asset.
(11) Teine Aulelei has super straight-line speed. She’s never been down the straight but think this course will suit her down to the ground. The form around her last campaign is strong: a good thing beaten at The Valley three back, only bettered by Sheza Alibi at Flemington and then dind’t have much luck in the Thoroughbred Club.
Was with (3) Alpha Sofie first-up but think this is a deeper contest so find it hard to come at the $2.60. She was good there at Caulfield, win rated well enough, probably better suited to 1200m – but still not sold on the depth of her form. She can win, for sure, but can do so without me on at the quote.
Selections:
(1) Nashville Jack
(11) Teine Aulelei
(12) Toronado Queen
(3) Alpha Sofie
Suggested Bet: Something Nashville Jack/Teine Aulelei.
Trifecta: 1,11,12 // 1,3,11,12 // 1,3,5,11,12,13
Race 10
Tricky way to finish.
Thought (11) Ambassadorial should’ve beaten (7) Fiorenot home two back at this track over 1800m when he was run off the course by Yes I Know. He has since had a ‘soft kill’ when able to do as he pleased out in front at Caulfield. Maps to sit just off (10) Xtra Rush and think he’s the horse to beat. Form since joining the McEvoy stable has been excellent and seems to be relishing dry ground.
(7) Fiorenot is airborne, but he’s been up a long time and I doubt there’s any improvement to come. Will again spot them a start but he likes wide draws as they ensure clean air. Right in the mix again.
(10) Xtra Rush has a picket fence next to his name. Trialled nicely prior to beating Single Choice (who won at Caulfield last week) on the Heath track fresh. Had pattern of the day on side and the wide open expanses of Flemington/2000m pose new challenges.
Think the best roughie in the race is (3) Regal Lion. Having a good campaign and has had a soft jump-out to keep him up to the mark.
Selections:
(11) Ambassadorial
(7) Fiorenot
(10) Xtra Rush
(3) Regal Lion
Suggested Bet: Pass, would have all four in the quaddie.
