Turf Talk:
- Rail 4m.
- Guessing game with this track, but last time it was wet the inside five lanes were slow. The next 10 lanes seemed the best, while outside that was slower again.
- Feel they will leave the inside again, but no doubt they will overdo it at some stage and one will win on the inside.
Stats that matter:
- Rachel King is flying. 11 wins from her last 50 rides and ROI +69.7%. How she only has three rides on this G1 day is absolutely ridiculous.
- Look out, look out, Bjorn is about. He loves the Qld sun and has 9 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +34.1%.
Summary of Best Bets:
- Race 3 (7) Bella Montagna
- Race 6 (8) She’s Got Pizzazz e/w
Race 1
This (2) Yellow Jersey looks a beauty if it brings its best. Won three on the trot overseas before a placing at G2 level over 2200m. Won a Sunny Coast trial over 1000m and just a matter of if they have him ready to go fresh or if they have a target in mind after this race?
Can’t knock (1) Welwal, who was a good winner two back and 4th to War Eternal last time out. Likes the cut out of the track and a chance if the fave is off its game.
(3) Tavi Time is ready to win and was better than it reads on paper last start. Berry sticks, handles all ground and can sit a little closer.
(4) War Eternal has won two on the bounce and was strong late when challenged last week. Quick back up is a good sign and Rachel King is flying!
Selections:
(2) Yellow Jersey
(4) War Eternal
(1) Welwal
(3) Tavi Time
Suggested Bet: First Four – 2 // 1,3,4 // 1,3,4,5 // 1,3,4,5
Race 2
The two faves come out of the race at the Coast. (1) Maffiano and (10) Say You Will were nearly identical runs. If that is the A-grade formline they can fight this out. Just hard to line all this different form up against each other and be overly confident.
(5) Hard To Exceed was dominant on debut and tipped straight out. Trials have been excellent and looks a good one. This is harder and a horrible draw is the negative. Nash might just push the button and lead.
(2) Portico looks a little value at double figures. Has improved at every career run to date and was a nice winner last start to break maiden status. Berry going on is a nice upgrade here.
(8) Pearl Of Dubai has shown good potential but I didn’t love the last run. Can respect if any money comes for her.
(11) Lady Catalina may be the next best but can be a little weak late.
Selections:
(2) Portico
(5) Hard To Exceed
(10) Say You Will
(1) Maffiano
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3
I have loved the prep of (7) Bella Montagna. Set to peak 4th up, King is riding as good as anyone and meets (1) Alacance 3kg better off here. Wet track would be a positive and just looks timed to the minute by Waterhouse/Bott.
Stablemate (1) Alacance beat her last start but has the big weight over 3200m here. Will be on speed for a long way and this stable will have her as fit as any horse here all day. The jock may be the best front-running rider in the country too.
Very hard to think anything else out of that race could turn the tables.
(9) Thebudgiesmugla is the lightly raced one who could run a race with a light weight. Bit plain at his latest but had been good before that.
Selections:
(7) Bella Montagna
(1) Alacance
(9) Thebudgiesmugla
(3) Athabascan
(10) Wealdstone
Suggested Bet: Win (7) Bella Montagna
Race 4
They got the tactics wrong on (1) Sixties last start and expecting McDonald to go forward here and follow Skyhook across. He is the best horse but I feel 1600m really sees him out. Needs it all to pan out.
(2) Skyhook is classy and can lead these for a long way. A little question at the end of 1600m as well but if he gets it soft up front, he can be hard to get past.
(10) Within The Law was the eye catcher and strongest through the line in the Fred Best. Best L200m in both runs this prep and to 1600m suits her more than the top two. Can see why the market is keen on her.
The value might well be (11) Tupakara, especially if there is rain around. She is clearly a better horse on wet ground and the 2nd in the Qld Guineas was excellent. She was the 2nd best L400m and 200m of that race. Recent trial was poor but might have just been a tick over and not too worried about that. Williams going on is a big positive.
Selections:
(11) Tupakara
(10) Within The Law
(2) Skyhook
(1) Sixties
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (11) Tupakara
Race 5
This looks tough!
(4) Pereille is a frustrating animal. Always flashing late but always excuses why he doesn’t win. Showed a turn of foot again last start but found one better again. Can JMac be the difference here?
(18) Arabian Rose put in a career best fresh and King is in fantastic form. Will get back but will launch late with just 53kg. Has won or placed in 8 of 13 and can improve on that here. She hasn’t reached her ceiling yet.
(14) Band Of Brothers has been outstanding since joining the Dunn camp. Won or placed in all six starts for the stable. Won a recent trial to be ready for this assignment.
(13) Golden Straand is a good one in the making but does look rock-bottom odds. The two wins were BM78 races this prep and then 3rd at Listed level. Right in this but just too short for me.
(6) Barber didn’t get the clearest path fresh and is a consistent type. Clark goes on and as long as it’s not heavy, he can threaten them.
I’ve given up on (1) Payline but this is a big drop in grade from a G1 back to Listed. Finished alongside horses like Another Wil and Warnie last start. Off that alone he has to be better than the $10 price says.
At his best (2) Anamoe can be a threat. Recent form is very good but 1200m is about as short as he wants.
Selections:
(18) Arabian Rose
(1) Payline
(6) Barber
(14) Band Of Brothers
(2) Anamoe
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
The Dane Ripper is always a competitive race and this might be the best race on the card. A stack of different form lines and easy to make a case for most of the field.
It wasn’t the strongest field (3) Tuileries beat at Scone, but she was exceptional. Picked them up late and spat them out. She can mix her form but a repeat of that can win it.
(5) Ahha Ahha has changed stables and was every bit as good as Tuileries in the recent trial. Tipped out after the last start G3 win and if they go hard in front, she can be strong late.
(8) She’s Got Pizzazz has been airborne. Late splits have been excellent the last couple and Zahra stays on top. Handles all conditions and genuine winning chance here.
Little distance question on (14) Soft Love but since the blinkers have gone on she is flying. Nearly won from an impossible spot last start and if she runs this out, she can win for sure.
One of the better runs in the lead-up race was (4) Niance. Good mare and should get a better run in transit this time around.
Selections:
(8) She’s Got Pizzazz
(3) Tuileries
(5) Ahha Ahha
(14) Soft Love
Suggested Bet: e/w (8) She’s Got Pizzazz
Race 7
The two faves carry the same colours so don’t mix them up.
Two ways to look at this race, do we take the Sires lead-up form or look elsewhere?
(1) Berzelius was the winner there and has always looked as though this trip would be suitable. Strong through the line and gate 5 is a help to sit a pair or so closer in a slow-run race here.
I have no doubt (5) Stormy Marco was the unlucky runner in the Sires and should nearly have won. Stopped in his tracks twice and was a horror watch. They will land in the first half of the field and I think we will see a nice horse in the making here.
The stablemate and favourite is (4) Tron Bolt. He does look like a beauty but the media comparing him to The Autumn Sun is too soon for me. He was dominant in Sydney last start but you always have to temper a Heavy 9 win. The good-track win before it over 1400m was impressive too.
(2) Martist has had a wrap all the way through and was 3rd in the Sires after being runner-up in the G2 Spirit Of Boom.
Have loved (6) Kickup Rocky since the first run. Is a get-back type but he is always amongst the best late splits. This trip looks like what he’s after.
(8) Cormier was favoured to beat Tron Bolt in Sydney but was no match late. May be a better horse on better ground and must be a winning chance off that run.
Selections:
(5) Stormy Marco
(4) Tron Bolt
(1) Berzelius
(6) Kickup Rocky
Suggested Bet: e/w (5) Stormy Marco
Race 8
Don’t think this is the best edition of the Stradbroke but it might be one of the more even betting affairs. A few key form lines and in my opinion, there is nothing better than a full-field handicap to punt into.
(16) Spicy Martini draws perfect and she is in career-best form. She has mixed her form up in the past but both runs back have been exceptional and a nice tick-over trial in between. The map gives her every possible chance.
Obviously most would have been aimed at this race, but there are a couple in particular I feel have been timed to the minute by their leading trainers, (4) Another Wil and (8) Transatlantic.
(4) Another Wil has had seven months off and a slow build towards this race. Fresh run was okay but the last-start effort was much improved. Maher is the best trainer in the land and I expect this horse to go to another level third-up. Just needs a good ride from the gate and it’s interesting Jamie Melham isn’t on top.
(8) Transatlantic has had a similar prep and similar improvement. Gollan has aimed at this race for some time and this horse loves this track/trip (6:2:1:0). Likely to go forward from the awkward barrier.
(12) Warnie draws the inside for the in-form Declan Bates. Don’t be surprised if they all leave the fence and Bates steals ground and possibly the race. Forgiving last start and the recent trial was good.
I love the prep that Pride has given (11) Estadio Mestalla. He is a great handicapper and has had two runs in Listed races with 61kg before dropping to 53.5kg here. Also has a month between runs, blinkers back on and two trials. Love every part of how he has set this up.
(3) Private Eye gets the run of the race for Nash and he’s a beauty. Just feel he may be 1-2L off where he was this time last year.
(1) Fangirl was the run of the race in the main lead-up and she is classy. I never love a mare being topweight in handicaps though.
Easy to make cases for plenty more but you can’t have them all.
(Selections may change before raceday so check back in.)
Selections:
(4) Another Wil
(16) Spicy Martini
(8) Transatlantic
(11) Estadio Mestalla
(12) Warnie
Suggested Bet: Quinella 4,8,16
Race 9
Well (1) Half Yours looks half the horse we witnessed in the spring. Out to 2200m plays into his hands and we know his best is more than good enough. This has been his target all along so I expect to see the best of him today.
(2) Vauban picked Half Yours up and went past late in the Doomben Cup. All reports are the horse is flying and this is a suitable target.
(8) Zambardo is the fresh horse on the scene. Been going well without lighting the joint on fire. Was 2nd to Via Sistina at G1 level last prep.
I’ve loved (11) She’s A Hustler all along and although well beaten last start, don’t want to sack her off that one run.
Distance queries on (10) Pride Of Jenni and (5) Militarize for me.
Selections:
(1) Half Yours
(2) Vauban
(11) She’s A Hustler
(8) Zambardo
Suggested Bet: I can give (1) Half Yours one more chance.
