Observer will attempt to join King’s High, Mahogany and, most recently, Hitotsu as three-year-olds to have achieved the coveted VRC Derby, Australian Guineas double.
The Guineas itself has, once again, been compromised by its Randwick equivalent, leaving a field of ten without depth. The market reflects as much. Removing the bookmaker’s margin, Observer, Sixties and Planet Red collectively make up 83.3% of the true winning probability, leaving just 16.7% to be divided among the remaining seven runners.
All ten runners emerge from either the CS Hayes Stakes or the Autumn Stakes; there are no alternative form lines to introduce uncertainty.
The Derby winner was well fancied to make a successful return in the Autumn Stakes over seven furlongs, and he justified such confidence, winning emphatically. Rolling straight to the lead, he orchestrated a searching pace, galloping his lesser opposition into submission.
Importantly, Victorious Spirit and Planet Red, who filled the placings, settled last and second last respectively, while Davida, Top Conti and Cyber Link, runners who were prominent to the pace, faded poorly to fill the last three positions.
Observer’s stride frequency indicates that his optimal distance lies somewhere between a mile and a mile and a quarter. An even-to-strong gallop from the outset appears likely, a scenario that will draw the majority beyond what is comfortable.
Sixties, who vies for favouritism alongside Observer, was excellent in the CS Hayes Stakes, enduring a torrid run, settling midfield, racing wide and without cover throughout. Performance ratings would suggest that there is little between the pair, which will be well-versed by pundits on Saturday. Sixties stride however, suggests he may ultimately eventuate into a sprinter as an older horse. As such, I believe that a mile is beyond his outer limit. Ethan Brown and Ciaron Maher are astute. They will recognise such vulnerability, and that their most effective tactic will be to ensure a searching gallop, neutralising Sixties’ dynamic sprint.
From a tactical perspective, Sixties’ wide draw complicates matters.
Damian Lane and Chris Waller must decide whether to ride him aggressively from the gates at the cost of potentially being caught wide, or restrain and concede a crucial positional advantage to Observer. Neither option is perfect. While the market elects Sixties as the decisive threat to beat the Derby winner, I am inclined to believe that Planet Red is similarly positioned to do so.
Planet Red has twice held Observer’s measure, on debut and again in the Caulfield Guineas. He was beaten when the pair met at Caulfield, sustaining a long run from the rear of the field to finish second in the Autumn Stakes. There are two ways to interpret his run at Caulfield. It may be that settling last flattered him slightly, allowing him to pass tiring horses once the race was effectively decided. Conversely, Flemington’s expansive straight is far more accommodating to horses without early speed, and it is undeniably easier to produce a sustained finish there than it is around Caulfield’s tighter circuit. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle
All told, I assess Observer as an even-money chance and a tremendous prospect to complete the Derby-Guineas double. He is unequivocally the leading horse in this field and is significantly advantaged by the anticipated race scenario. I am prepared to risk Sixties on the basis that the mile is beyond him, and while I remain trepidatious of Planet Red, he appeals as the more plausible threat at his current price, one I have priced nearer 9/2 and perhaps save on accordingly.
Elsewhere, Alpha Sofie makes considerable appeal in the Inglis Sprint.
She returned in the Peter Le Grand Stakes and was dominant, comprehensively accounting for a quality group of fillies in strong overall time.
Interestingly, over the past twelve months, Peter Moody’s stable has quite significantly underperformed market expectation with first-up runners, striking at 11.8% and returning 0.83 wins versus expected.
Second-up, however, Moody’s horses improve markedly: a 17.9% strike rate and 1.22 wins versus expected. Thus, we can infer that his horses are typically prepared to improve with racing, and the market has not yet accounted for the immense progression his horses are undertaking from their first to second run.
The figure Alpha Sofie produced at Caulfield is superior to any rating previously recorded by her opposition in this field. It is more than reasonable to suggest that Alpha Sofie will dramatically improve, with her second run of this preparation. With mostly limited and reasonably exposed opposition, and with her high probability to improve, I make her a 5/4 chance to account for this field.
Simultaneously, Layla, who dismantled her maiden field by five lengths in fast time, has been aggressively placed, taking her place in this field at just her third start. She is an extremely talented filly, and is capable of measuring up against a field of this quality.
Suggested bets:
Australian Guineas: Observer
Inglis Sprint: Alpha Sofie & Layla
