Betsy’s Set: Canterbury Wednesday

Betsy’s Best:

Turf Talk:

•  +4m – expect a slight advantage to find the rails in run and land forward of midfield.
• A genuine tempo is needed to run on from the rear.

The Stats that Matter:

• Over the past 90 days Josh Parr is striking at a dynamic 28.6% with a positive POT of +38.6%.
• Peter Snowden is the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP. He is striking at 20.6% with an impressive POT of +8.6% and is effective with runners first and second up.

Race 1 (12:50pm)
I expect (3) Golden Century to give James McDonald and Chris Waller a winning start to the midweek Canterbury meeting. The lightly raced 4YO gelding is one of the best maiden gallopers going around, with group form glittered on his page. The rise to 1900m should see him dominate – the price is the only query. (4) The Big Blue peaks fourth up after a trio of recent placings, and the rise to 1900m suits. (6) Hammoon Heroine didn’t quite get to the superior outside lanes last start but still hit the line well and is in the mix here.

(3) Golden Century
(4) The Big Blue
(6) Hammoon Heroine
(1) Extra Power

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 2 (1:25pm)
There looks to be absolutely no speed engaged up front here over the 1550m, which gives the two Waterhouse & Bott-trained gallopers, (7) Sigma and (3) Koibito, a tactical advantage. (3) Koibito is the pick of the two – smart debut effort in a strong rating race before a less-than-ideal setup second up on a heavy 10. Ready to win now third up. (6) Officiate did a terrific job fresh, making up sharp ground late to only be collared by the smart Seriously Hot. (7) Sigma goes in the mix too with peak fitness and improvement back to dry ground. Outside of them, (5) Precise Star looks ready to do something.

(3) Koibito
(6) Officiate
(7) Sigma
(5) Precise Star

Suggested Bet – Koibito WIN (small)

Race 3 (2:00pm)
A fascinating maiden contest with plenty of winning chances. With the race fitness edge, I’ll lean the way of (5) Extractor second up. He didn’t quite handle Gosford fresh but was sharp late, running the meeting’s best L200m. (6) Night Agent draws a lovely gate for his debut run – the booking of James McDonald is significant, and he has a sharp turn of foot as shown in his trials. Intrigued to see what the Ross McConville-trained (1) C’mon Flyer can do on debut. One very sneaky trial, about the best $51 chance I’ve seen in a while. Outside of that, (9) Condone, (8) Prince Charge, and (2) Nordic Viking bring genuine winning claims off their respective trials.

(5) Extractor
(6) Night Agent
(1) C’mon Flyer
(9) Condone

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 4 (2:35pm)
A clear race in two. (8) Luskaire goes firmly on top bringing back-to-back career peak efforts. He has already ticked the 1800m box and looks well suited up in trip again. The booking of McDonald is the cherry on top. (3) Fioprospero is the main danger, resuming off a 4-week freshen after a smart 2400m effort. From the inside draw, Collett will need to be positive early to hold a spot just off the speed. (2) Monarchs Brae could be an improver back on firmer ground – he didn’t handle consecutive heavy tracks but gets in light at the weights today. The in-form (1) The Years rounds out the numbers.

(8) Luskaire
(3) Fioprospero
(2) Monarchs Brae
(1) The Years

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 5 (3:10pm)
Another intriguing contest with multiple formlines converging. The progressive (11) Central Coast returns off two nice trials. He looks very short in the market ($2.60) but maps to land in the one-one. The horse over the odds is (10) Golden Straand – he strung together two smart efforts last prep before failing on a heavy deck. Freshened and looked sharp in a recent trial, beating Generosity (5th in the G2 Concorde on Saturday). (7) Theblade is another strong chance, ticking the dry track box last start in Queensland behind Spywire. He comes to Sydney now and draws a lovely gate. (5) Silentsar rounds out the numbers.

(11) Central Coast
(10) Golden Straand
(7) Theblade
(5) Silentsar

Suggested Bet – Golden Straand EW

Race 6 (3:45pm)
Easily the race of the day – one of the more progressive BM72 midweek clashes you’ll see. Plenty of speed expected up front. At the better price ($4.80), I’m happy to side with (3) Mergelia. She’s been scratched multiple times recently from wide gates but finally draws well enough and gets her preferred dry ground. She’ll still need a good ride but has come up backable odds. (6) Akaysha was withdrawn from last Saturday’s G2 Furious Stakes and instead saved for this. With her tactical speed, gate 1 suits perfectly. The big watch is (10) Girijaala, who resumes off a 24-week spell. She looked sharp in her recent 900m trial when beating Central Coast. She maps a treat and can only run well. Of the rest, (2) Modella will likely get back first up and look to run over the top late.

(3) Mergelia
(6) Akaysha
(10) Girijaala
(2) Modella

Suggested Bet – Mergelia WIN

Race 7 (4:20pm)
An even end to the day. (4) United Kingdom did a terrific job first up when giving away race fitness on what was a bottomless track. He’s been given 3 weeks between runs and a tick-over trial, and looks suited second up rising in distance. (2) Captain Maverick maps well from barrier 7, coming off a string of placings. Back to a dry deck with the use of the claim suits. Both (3) The Replicant and (7) Agita bring consistent formlines, but of the two, (3) The Replicant is the map horse from barrier 3.

(4) United Kingdom
(2) Captain Maverick
(3) The Replicant
(7) Agita

Suggested Bet – No Bet