In The Lab: 2025 Run To The Rose

Racelab’s Matt Collum analyses Saturday’s Run To The Rose form all angles.

Matt has broken down the speed map, likely track patterns and key stats, as well as providing the likely rating required to win Saturday’s race and finally identified the ‘value’ vs his market.

Capacity field of sixteen runners plus emergencies certainly makes the race very competitive.

The track: Rosehill unique features of the course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Rail +6m, Heavy 10, Thursday
• Inside barriers 1-3 for on-speed runners are most advantaged but show a loss of -1% POT
• Lanes 1 and 2 are showing a 18% POT and 2.7% POT respectively for all rail positions
• With more rain forecast on Thursday we could see horses getting away from the fence

Speed map & tempo:

They should run along at a decent clip here. Plenty of speed runners drawn wide with North England, King Of Pop and Nashville Jack all searching for positive positions. The favourite Raging Force may take up the running or sit handy with some cover if pressured.

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Peter Snowden has a winning strike rate of 23% and POT of 5.6% for last 100 runners
• Tempted has a trainer change to Ciaron Maher from James Cummings and Ethan Brown is riding for the first time
• Dylan Gibbons is exceeding market expectations with a win strike rate of 19% and POT of 56.6% from his last 100 rides

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Run To The Rose. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried. Rothfire and Anamoe rated the highest in recent times because they were carrying 58.5kg. In Secret is the only filly to ever win this race since the event started in 2003.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Run To The Rose:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the SW+P scale to win Saturday’s Run To The Rose.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below. This is the rating the Racelab team predict each runner can achieve in Saturday’s Run To The Rose.

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price (i.e. Wodeton).

The verdict and betting strategy:

The San Domenico Stakes appears to be the strongest formline leading in. They ran quick time that day with a good margin spread back through the field. Raging Force was solid winning but he did have a cosy run throughout and goes up a couple of kilos for the win. I think he will cop more pressure up front here as well. Wodeton had no luck copping a horrible check with 100m to go when finishing behind Raging Force and is ideally suited under set weight and penalty conditions with 55kg. He’s probably the best horse on the minimum here. Beiwacht sat wide without cover in the same race and boxed for a solid 3rd. He gets a lovely map here and can run a big race at double figures.

Suggested Bet:

Wodeton (full stake win)

Beiwacht (half stake win)

Legend: