With The Championships just around the corner, Dean Watling has been putting the key runners under the microscope with his Buy, Hold, Sell lens. After another big weekend of racing, Dean has identified the horses he wants to back in, the ones he is prepared to stay with, and those he is happy to risk heading deeper into the carnival.
Here is Dean’s latest Buy, Hold, Sell.
Buy
Sir Delius (Race 5) – He was solid first-up this prep but looked to need sharp improvement second-up in the Ranvet on Saturday to win. Improve he did. The tactics were strange when he was snagged back to last, but his L600m figure of +6.2 was excellent considering the race shape. Settling closer next time, I think he can give the front pair a big scare. Ready to turn the tables third-up now.
Gringotts (Race 7) – His fresh run was full of merit and he came on again second-up, eating up the ground late on his preferred drier deck. Watch out third-up if he finds a Group 3 assignment. He recorded the sixth-best L600m of the meeting and looks bang on track.
Caffe Florian (Race 4) – Yes, she had the right run in transit second-up when finding the rails, but her late sectional splits were those of a mare ready to win third-up. She produced the ninth-best L600m of the meeting and looks close to striking.
Green Spaces (Race 6) – He might not have the class of a Sheza Alibi or an Autumn Boy, but he has the grit of a horse who can win a Group 1 Derby. Bjorn has been strong on him all prep, saying he is up to this level, and he showed on the weekend that he can outstay them in a Derby.
Hold
Briasa (Race 9) – Beaten by the draw. It was not just the barrier itself, but the lanes that barrier forced him into in the straight. We saw a lot of horses in lanes 10 and wider appear to hit a wall at the 200m. It was still a big effort fresh and he looks on track for a TJ.
Streisand (Race 8) – Outstanding effort in the Slipper. She set a strong tempo at +6.0 to the 800m and then a further +2.5 from the 800m to the 600m mark. To hold on for second after that was a phenomenal effort.
Pinito (Race 3) – A smart $2.60 starting price on the weekend. She did not have any favours from the wide draw and looked a touch flat late. Happy to trust her and look forward to a better setup next time.
Sell
Sam Hawkens (Race 2) – Eight months ago, a lot of people blamed James McDonald’s ride on this workmanlike import as the reason he was beaten. Since then, his record has been eating punters’ money faster than fuel prices.
18/10/25 – $2.30, beaten 3.7L
21/2/26 – $4.20, beaten 2.61L
8/3/26 – $3.80, beaten 3.95L
21/3/26 – $21.00, beaten 9.92L
He needs a spell and a hard look at himself.
Observer (Race 6) – Overrated in my opinion. He proved on the weekend that he is a one-dimensional galloper who needs to dictate to win. I would not be surprised if we see a new rider booked next start. Placed in the right races he can win, but I am selling him as a Group 1 star this prep.
