Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 8 #8 Shadhavar
Next Best: Race 4 #4 Signature Scent
Value Bet: Race 7 #5 Talisay
Best Roughie: Race 9 #1 Freedom Flame
Turf Talk
- Clear conditions are forecast for race day with little rain expected in the lead-up, so expecting a Good 4 track.
- The rail pushes out slightly from the previous meeting here on the course proper and will be +6m the entire circuit.
- Expecting a fair track as usual here on the course proper, with the track likely to play slightly off the rails in the straight.
Stats that matter
- Andrew Gluyas is one of the larger stables here in SA and will have six runners at this meeting. For a big stable, his team has been profitable, producing 18 winners from 100 starters at a POT of +9.4%.
- Jacob Opperman is finding form at the right time of year here in SA, riding 22 winners from his previous 100 rides at a POT of +14.3%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Bootlegger looks the standout in this race having won at Listed level in his last start. His query last time was the 1600m trip, but he ticked that box easily, so expecting another strong showing here in a potentially easier race.
(3) Mostly For Show was hitting the line strongly last start and may be better suited in a smaller field if he does not get as far back this time.
(2) Matahga can have a level of improvement today now that he is fitter second-up and rising to the 1600m trip.
(5) Flying Brant won his maiden well last time and can be the leader in this. He may get a soft run of it out in front, which will suit in a small field.
Selections:
(1) Bootlegger
(3) Mostly For Show
(2) Matahga
(5) Flying Brant
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(1) A Samurai Mind is on the quick back-up having run into the placings last week, only getting run down late. This is a step back in level which will suit, and he maps for a positive run again, so the 1600m trip should prove no issue.
(5) Cash is another runner on the quick back-up having run a close third last week. He has to step up in distance and grade today but has talent when at his best and can peak in fitness now third-up.
(4) Star Sirius was strong late last time when running over the top of the field at Murray Bridge to win. He looks suited rising in distance to the 1600m for the first time off the back of that run.
(6) Brown Nose Day Gal is in super form having won three of her last five starts. She maps to settle on speed and, after an apprentice claim, will be very light in the weights here. She may prove hard to catch.
Selections:
(1) A Samurai Mind
(5) Cash
(4) Star Sirius
(6) Brown Nose Day Gal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
We have not seen (12) Tiptop Tori at the races for nearly 12 months, but she went into the break having run a close third in a Group 3. If fit enough off the long break, she could have too much class for this field.
(7) Whiskey Tumbler was tough on debut to only get run down late. He may have improvement off that performance second-up in this and maps for a softer lead early from a low barrier.
(5) Golden Cloud was an eye-catcher late on debut when hitting the line strongly. He looks ideally suited stepping up to the 1200m off the back of that performance.
(4) Brave Fortune makes his debut in this. His trial form has been strong enough to suggest he can put in a big performance fresh.
Selections:
(12) Tiptop Tori
(7) Whiskey Tumbler
(5) Golden Cloud
(4) Brave Fortune
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(4) Signature Scent has kicked off this prep in two much stronger races, including a Group 3 first-up where she was strongly supported in the market. This is a much easier race for her and she looks ready to peak third-up now. She maps well and should be prominent in the run.
(8) Shocap was good when running second behind the in-form Mathematician first-up. That is a good form reference for a race like this and she should have some improvement to give fitter second-up.
(5) Virtual Illusion resumes today. He was a winner first-up last prep so can fire fresh. Expect him to be back in the run and hitting the line strongly.
(1) Aleppo Pine resumes down in grade from where he ended last prep. He has won first-up previously and recent trial form has been solid.
Selections:
(4) Signature Scent
(8) Shocap
(5) Virtual Illusion
(1) Aleppo Pine
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(1) Never Ordinary has made a strong start to her career, running a close second on debut at Listed level before easily winning next start in fast time. She maps well here and looks hard to beat based on her recent form.
(2) Almost An Angel comes into this race fresh having gone through a Blue Diamond campaign in Victoria. She should find this a much easier race than her most recent runs in Group company.
(5) Verzain ran well on debut at Murray Bridge to finish a close second despite pulling up with a small issue. She comes into this race fresh and looks back in good order after a recent trial win.
(6) Churchill Rose ran well on debut before going out for a spell. Her resuming run was moderate, but she clearly has improvement in her and looks a big price here for a runner who appears to have solid talent and the scope to improve.
Selections:
(1) Never Ordinary
(2) Almost An Angel
(5) Verzain
(6) Churchill Rose
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
My top three picks in this race all hit the line together in a close finish last start, and I am expecting them all to run well again, but with the finishing order flipped.
(10) Blanc Visage was hitting the line as well as any last start and now gets the lighter weight on rivals and jumps from a better barrier. She looks hard to hold out again.
(2) Declared was bold last start but had to do some work early. He may get a chance to be stronger late as he should get a softer run early from barrier one.
(3) Angel Torque was the winner of that race and is consistent. She is undefeated at this distance, so expecting another good run, but she does have a bigger weight today.
(1) Enuff Seduction is in super form having won three in a row and comes in fresh for this. Hard to knock his recent form and he is down in grade, but he will have to handle a heavy weight.
Selections:
(10) Blanc Visage
(2) Declared
(3) Angel Torque
(1) Enuff Seduction
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(5) Talisay was outclassed in a strong Listed race last start and will be much better suited well back down in grade. She is suited at this distance range having won two from two over 1500m previously and is at peak fitness third-up.
(9) Chillcuz was running through the line strongly in a similar race last start to finish a close third. He rises to the 1600m today, which looks suitable.
(8) Vaniteux has found consistent form with two wins in her last four starts. She gets a light weight here and a positive race map, so should be running on late.
(12) Anahorish gave nothing else a chance when winning last start at Murray Bridge. She needs to step up in level today but looks likely to appreciate the rise in distance.
Selections:
(5) Talisay
(9) Chillcuz
(8) Vaniteux
(12) Anahorish
Suggested Bet: (5) Talisay each-way
Race 8
Fillies and mares have had a good recent record in this race, and it looks perfectly timed for (8) Shadhavar to put in a big performance.
She was dominant when resuming at Murray Bridge but has been a runner who improves with a run or two into a prep. I like her fitter second-up into this race and with a light weight and positive race map she sets up well.
(1) Arkansaw Kid is the clear class horse of the race but will have a big weight to carry. He may prove too good but has to give weight and a likely head start to the favourite, which is the test.
(9) Thunder Shoc is another in-form mare who has been hitting the line strongly, so should be well placed with a light weight and up to the 1200m trip.
(2) Chicago Storm resumes today. He has a good record fresh and found a good level of form last prep, so could surprise in this at a big price.
Selections:
(8) Shadhavar
(1) Arkansaw Kid
(9) Thunder Shoc
(2) Chicago Storm
Suggested Bet: (8) Shadhavar win
Race 9
Looks a very open feature with a mix of local and interstate runners in form.
Giving (1) Freedom Flame a strong chance in this set-up. She is third-up and at peak fitness but, importantly, gets to the 1600m trip which should be ideal for her now. She maps well so looks likely to settle in a prominent position as well.
(2) Mating Call was competitive in strong Group-level races last prep so may be the class runner of the field. She was slightly soft first-up but looked in need of the run and can be an improver fitter today and up in trip.
(5) Stung was good when resuming at Pakenham and looks likely to appreciate the rise in trip. She gets a nice run from barrier four and, if the speed is on, may be set up to swoop over the top late.
(3) Dirty Old Town has been in consistent form, including running third last start at Listed level. This race sets up similarly so expect her to be hitting the line strongly again.
Selections:
(1) Freedom Flame
(2) Mating Call
(5) Stung
(3) Dirty Old Town
Suggested Bet: (1) Freedom Flame each-way
Race 10
Open race to finish the program. There does not look to be much speed in the race, which could see (3) Synchro get a soft run out in front. He is first-up into this and has won first-up before, so could take catching.
(1) Dobbinair ran well in a stronger race first-up. He rates highly in this field but has an awkward barrier to deal with, so may rely on luck at some stage.
(2) Gold Spirit was suited rising to the 1200m trip last time when winning. He remains in a very similar race so can figure here, but is another who needs luck from a wide barrier.
(6) Shadow Eagle had little luck when running midfield last start. If he gets a clearer run in the straight this time he should be hitting the line strongly.
Selections:
(3) Synchro
(1) Dobbinair
(2) Gold Spirit
(6) Shadow Eagle
Suggested Bet: No bet
