Summary of Best Bets:
Race 7 #2 Climactic – Very good fresh off a long break. Has good ability and only has to overcome the potential flat 2nd up run that can happen off those breaks.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 5m
- Weather looks OK
- Rail in a decent spot
- Looks a decent set up and just have to get our maps right.
Stats that matter:
- There are not many flying at present.
- Kelly Schweida has trained 10 of his last 50 to win and that’s about as good as anyone at the moment.
- Nat McCall has got 4 winners from her last 19 runners. Just a smaller type team and doing a good job.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(4) Lofty Macsporran was only runner up at Grafton but made good late ground there over the 1100m. Best L400m and 200m of the race and can improve off that run.
(9) Woodrow has the good on speed style and that is suitable here. Beaten fair and square last start but the effort was good and can be in this for a long way.
(8) The Aviator had to go back to last in that Woodrow race and was no hope with the tempo. Can get a better run in transit here and I do believe there is ability there.
(12) Chantilly joins Gollan and has trialled OK. Keep safe and see what the money says race day.
Selections:
(9) Woodrow
(4) Lofty Macsporran
(8) The Aviator
(12) Chantilly
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
What a horrible race. No real leaders and could be a battle of tactics. Well, it should be but not many jocks make a daring decision these days.
(6) Nightcapped was a leader last start and winner over the 1350m. Didn’t beat much at Ipswich but does map to be hard to beat again.
(1) Yoshino is in good form and peaks fitness wise. Just the 60kg is some query for me when the sprint goes on.
(2) Ocean Zar is the best horse in the race when she is at her best but she was beaten a long way last time out and doesn’t win out of turn. Good record 2nd up (4:2:0:1) and could improve.
(4) Smart As Smart trialled well and (3) La Cometa has talent but may need the run and further.
Selections:
(6) Nightcapped
(1) Yoshino
(2) Ocean Zar
(4) Smart Is Smart
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 3:
Still can’t believe (1) I Am Louie didn’t win last start. Was home for all money and just got nailed on the line. An in form Thompson stays on top, track and trip suit, as does gate 1. Gets his chance again.
(3) Our Mate Locky is way better than last start. Had a poor recovery so just put a line through that. Should be rock hard fit now and only start over this trip he was one of the best late splits in the race.
(7) Paradise As Usual has run well in better races but has nothing to show for it. Any of the most recent runs would win this but the get back pattern is not suitable over this trip. Like the fact Du Plessis takes over the steering.
Selections:
(7) Paradise As Usual
(1) I Am Louie
(3) Our Mate Locky
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (7) Paradise As Usual
Race 4:
(9) Fashionable has a bit of class and lightly raced. Won an 1800m Maiden before running 4th in a G2 Wakeful. This is just kicking off the prep but has upside and the class to win.
(10) Thebarberofseville gets a feather weight and has been racing in slightly better races. Has the get back pattern but with any luck, can be strong late here.
(3) Smart Action gobbled them up and went right over the top late. Meets (2) Silent Call worse at the weights but hard to see it turning the tables.
(4) Wild Gypsy was just nosed out in a CL5 last start and that sets up well for a race like this. Big stride and she can run well again.
(6) He’sgotthesay is lightly raced and can keep improving. Was a solid winner in an easier race fresh and Thornton stays on top.
(1) Moon Sweeper was just a run fresh but can be improved off that run. His best is good enough but may need another run.
Selections:
(4) Wild Gypsy
(9) Fashionable
(3) Smart Action
(6) He’sgotthesay
Suggested Bet: Quinella 3,4,9
Race 5:
(4) Hot Majesty has promised so much but not delivered. Gollan made a good thing of him in an easy race at the coast last start and he could get some confidence out of that win.
(2) Delrico has been OK this prep but probably needed the racing. Well held last start but the winner put a gap on them. Peaks here and can go close.
(6) Rock The Sunrise is a bit one paced but is fitter now and maybe out to this trip is what he is after. Limited type.
(9) Galway Flyer is with Waller and has been getting back and attacking the line. Blinkers go on and feel this looks a nice target for a bloke like him in form.
Very hard to win a Maiden and jump to this grade over a trip and win again. (14) Koolibah did look very good winning a fortnight ago. Won by nearly 4L and looks a genuine stayer. Thompson rides for Waller and will be strong late again.
Selections:
(9) Galway Flyer
(4) Hot Majesty
(14) Koolibah
(2) Delrico
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (9) Galway Flyer
Race 6:
(12) Saint Aldwyn doesn’t have the best gate but with not much speed should be able to find a decent spot in the first four. Led last start, gave a kick and proved too good. Loses Rodd for Graham but live chance again.
Market the best guide on (13) Scrumptious. Joins the new stable and should find racing up here a bit easier than down south. Can be on speed for a long way and one of the main chances.
(14) Take Achance On Me let down well to win last start. Not an overly strong race but winning form is good form and in the Waller camp.
(10) Araletta trial was OK and could be the next best.
Selections:
(12) Saint Aldwyn
(13) Scrumptious
(14) Take Achance On Me
(10) Araletta
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 7:
(2) Climactic was excellent fresh. 560 days off and was highly competitive. Always the chance of being flat 2nd up but if he actually improves off it he is the one to beat. Takes a 3kg claim and draws gate 1 which is worth plenty.
(5) Vanessi is only 1 from 17 and that’s an issue. Will find this easier than BM74 grade in Sydney and is tactically versatile. Wide draw makes it tough.
Bad gate for (9) Dismantle is the issue for her. She does have some speed and will try to cross. If she gets over she can be cheeky. (1) Braveheart is the stablemate, just plain last start and barrier an issue here.
Selections:
(2) Climactic
(9) Dismantle
(5) Vanessi
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Climactic
