Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 #11 Isti Star – Forgive last start with slow recovery and recent trial was great.
Race 4 #4 Bunker Hut – Likes it up here and a bit more class than most of these.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 6.5m
- Weather looks OK
- Rail in a decent spot
- Not a meeting that excites me in any way. Don’t like meetings where I can’t find any value through the day.
Stats that matter:
- Usually try to find positive stats here but not many are lighting it up at the moment. Here are some that need to turn it around.
- Robert Heathcote – Just 2 from last 50 and ROI -83%. Too good to not turn it around and he will get a few leading into the carnival.
- D.Moor also just 2 wins from last 50 rides and ROI -74%. I actually like the way he is riding and I am sure he is going to go on a winning run shortly. He is a jock well placed in this region.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Not a great race to start. We still have a lot to learn about all of these youngsters.
The two on top runners have come out and keen to watch on instead of being involved now.
Don’t think (2) Naughty Neil beat much but I did like the way he finished the race off with an eye to the 1300m here. With the faves coming out he now goes on top.
(8) Spirit Of Torque was an improved run last start at second career run. Good through the line and that’s a good pointer for this.
Market the best guide on the first starters.
Selections:
(2) Naughty Neil
(8) Spirit Of Torque
(4) Bodmin Moor
(6) Silken Salute
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
This will be run at a decent tempo and they should all get their chance.
Feel (11) Isti Star can be the one to land on the leaders’ backs and gets a nice run in transit. Had a poor recovery last start and I’m forgetting she went around. Has trialled great since and this looks a good target.
(10) Angel Ladder doesn’t know how to run poorly and will be right on speed. Was a winner in town last start but might just have a bit more pressure on her here.
(12) La Bella Boom draws the inside gate for Gollan. Has good ability but 439 days off the scene so money our only guide on fitness.
(1) Cosmo Centaurus has good ability but the 60kg doesn’t help. Trials have been good enough.
Respect any moves for (5) Daggers.
Selections:
(11) Isti Star
(10) Angel Ladder
(1) Cosmo Centaurus
(5) Daggers
(12) La Bella Boom
Suggested Bet: e/w (11) Isti Star
Race 3:
These Qld stayers like to take it in turns and can be hard to work them out.
For that reason I like to back the new horses on the scene. (2) Placid Pearl is that mare here. Comes out of a Group 3 race where she was in the money. Good gate and Thompson also key reasons.
The toppy (1) Akkadian Emperor is a walking ATM for the owners. Just keeps running well and in the money his last four runs (including two wins). Decent weight but he is honest.
No doubt (8) Lovey Dovey deserves a Saturday win. Form has been excellent throughout this prep. Three straight runners up cheques have been frustrating but the runs have been good. Mallyon suits her and she gets her chance here.
(5) Kureder is always up to a race like this. Good jock and good gate both help.
Selections:
(2) Placid Pearl
(8) Lovey Dovey
(1) Akkadian Emperor
(5) Kureder
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Competitive little race this.
Have always been a fan of (4) Bunker Hut and the perfect horse to bring north. Two good runs to start the prep and recent trial up here was very good. 2kg claim just tops it off and very well placed by Freedman.
(1) About To Explode is a consistent type for Gollan. Usually takes a run and then just keeps improving in a prep. That was the case again this time in and a winner last start. Great record this track/trip (7:4:1:0) and the one to beat again.
(3) Restonica is very consistent and worth thoughts in exotics, just not sure he’s up to the other two.
Selections:
(4) Bunker Hut
(1) About To Explode
(3) Restonica
(6) Tribeca Star
Suggested Bet: Win (4) Bunker Hut
Race 5:
(2) Make A Call just keeps finishing off well. Rock hard fit, this trip suits and Baker takes 3kg to help. Probably ready to show very best now.
I thought (3) Absolute Sunshine was there to win last start and didn’t get it done. It was against better horses and don’t want to be too harsh. Like it off the 2000m run and just needs a good ride from the gate.
(11) La Rosetta is no star but back to the 1830m will suit and was a good effort in a handy race last time out.
Selections:
(3) Absolute Sunshine
(2) Make A Call
(11) La Rosetta
(7) Rock Ya
Suggested Bet: e/w (3) Absolute Sunshine
Race 6:
I just don’t love 1000m races. I don’t seem to find enough winners over the trip to like them.
(3) Scampi was becoming a frustrating horse but was able to get in done in style last start. Probably lands midfield, gets the claim again and always strong late.
(2) Sha Of Gomer is not a 1000m horse but the last prep was excellent. Not many improve after leaving Waller but this horse has. Trial was good and could sprint well fresh.
(1) Givemethebeatboys has very good ability but mixing it up and I’d have a hard time trusting him. Watch the market.
Selections:
(3) Scampi
(2) Sha Of Gomer
(1) Givemethebeatboys
(5) Fleetwood
Suggested Bet: No
Race 7:
(3) Free Carry, (5) Just Flying and (9) Aratiri are the leaders, not sure which one takes a sit and how hard they go early. Should be an even tempo though I’d suspect.
I did like the recent run of (5) Just Flying and he is rock hard fit off three 1800m runs. Would be the most likely one to take the box seat and might apply the pressure early to test the other leaders out.
Like the form line that (3) Free Carry comes out of. This looks slightly easier and comes here set to peak fitness wise 4th run back. The 3kg claim is a help on speed too.
(9) Aratiri is no star but, gee, she is a brave thing. Always in for the fight and any cheap sectionals for her and could be hard to catch with the light weight.
(6) Lupine has won two on the trot and hard to find a knock. Joins the Healey camp now.
Selections:
(5) Just Flying
(3) Free Carry
(9) Aratiri
(6) Lupine
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (5) Just Flying
Race 8:
Typical open BM70 and not very keen to get involved.
Can’t knock (1) Ten Deep. Got the perfect run last start but got it done. Has won 2 of 3 for Gollan but does have the apprentice this time.
(12) First Empire was every bit as good in the same race but went wide while the winner didn’t go around another horse. Does have wins in store.
Another out of the same race was (13) Golden Cross and it caught the eye late attacking the line. Has always had ability but mixed form. Gelded this prep and might have more to give.
(7) Superhero looked well placed last start but had cardiac arrythmia, just have to put a line through that and be forgiving.
(10) Starboard a chance in an open race and not much would surprise.
Selections:
(12) First Empire
(13) Golden Cross
(1) Ten Deep
(7) Superhero
Suggested Bets: No
Race 9:
Very handy 3yo race. Full field, decent tempo and some of these will target feature races over the carnival.
Too many chances to name, but let’s have a look and run down from the top.
No doubt (1) Spanish Treasure deserves the big weight. He was excellent winning a race and running well in another feature at the Millions carnival. Won or placed in 5 of 6 and has more to give.
(2) Brave Monarch was excellent last prep. The stable were doing crazy things stats wise back then but this horse was airborne. Won three on the trot including two city races to finish the prep. Recent trial was outstanding.
(3) The Wheelbarrow has been brilliant in the ‘off season’. Has won last two in style, has a stack of upside and can measure up even though this is harder.
(16) Youre Not The King is well bred and bolted in on debut. Loved the style of win that night. Big jump up but may well be a smart one.
Selections:
(1) Spanish Treasure
(16) Youre Not The King
(2) Brave Monarch
(3) The Wheelbarrow
Suggested Bets: Nope, watch on for future races.
