Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 No.4 Mukhtalif
Next Best: Race 3 No.6 Thebelmontgangster
Value: Race 6 No.10 Marsept
Roughie: Race 9 No.4 Von Hauke
Turf Talk
- Track has had issues at the past two meetings with horses wanting to get well off the fence. The rail has been 9m then true.
- Rail goes to the 4m position on Saturday.
- The wind setup is perfect for on-speed horses – light southerly
- Walked the track Thursday which isn’t the best guide as 50 hours before the first race. Wouldn’t be surprised if inside gave way a bit, but winds might offset that.
- Advantaging horses forward of midfield but prepared to pivot.
Stats that matter
- Lloyd Kennewell is going at 21% form his last 100 runners, at a PoT of 21.7%.
- Jockey Beau Mertens is going at just 6% from his last 50 rides and 7% from his last 100, well below his career strike rate.
- Ben Allen is going as well as any hoop heading to the meeting: 19% from his last 100 mounts.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Good race to open the card.
(6) Figlio D’argento probably leads. (4) Mukhtalif drawn to his outside can come across and be prominent. (2) Taka Speed thereabouts up to 1800m. No doubt a couple drawn inside will make those coming across work a bit. Tempo even.
(4) Mukhtalif looked good in his most recent win at York before coming out to Australia. He raced on speed in both his wins – albeit one was a four-horse field – but suspect he can measure up. Most encouraging thing was his recent Caulfield trial, which was outstanding. Looks a good distance/race for him to kick off his Australian career.
(10) Engine Of War was good first-up on the Heath track. Better suited here at the 1800m and should get a lovely run. Question the depth of some of his better form, but ideal setup.
(7) Merchant Flyer’s two runs for Gavin Bedggood have been super. Now gets to 1800m on the quick back-up – has won on a five-day back-up previously. Will be hammering the line and is right in the game.
Selections:
(4) Mukhtalif
(10) Engine Of War
(3) Curse It
(11) Hallowed Halls
Suggested Bet: Backing Mukhtalif (WIN)
Race 2
Speed looks to come from (4) A Diva. Average tempo at best.
The toppy (1) Until Valhalla is way down in grade and gets in OK with the 3kg claim for Emily Pozman. Had no luck at all here two back and was again chopped out at a crucial stage in the Matron Stakes last start. She’s two-from-three at Caulfield with her defeat being that luckless Mannerism run (wouldn’t have won but should’ve finished closer).
(3) Terilee has shown good talent in her short career. Finished last in a clockwise jump-out at Cranbourne between runs but worked through the line fine, so not worried about that. Drawn a touch sticky and 1600m still a query, but she’s got plenty of upside.
(4) A Diva and (6) Autumn Slide resumed in the same race at Cranbourne. A Diva had a significant tactical edge there but don’t think there’s much between them.
Selections:
(1) Until Valhalla
(3) Terilee
(6) Autumn Slide
(4) A Diva
Suggested Bet: Something 1×3 Until Valhalla
Race 3
(6) Thebelmontgangster the most likely speed. Even tempo post scratchings.
Backed (6) Thebelmontgangster first-up last campaign and will be doing so again. He beat Observer in that fresh run, producing a good rating in the process, and he’s trialled up like he can do similar again here fresh. Carried 60kg first-up last campaign, not worried about the 60.5kg here, especially given it’s a 59kg minimum.
Vin Hall has done a wonderful job with (7) Dubai Watch. Will enjoy a genuine tempo and charge at them late.
Selections:
(6) Thebelmontgangster
(7) Dubai Watch
(3) Hot Digity Boom
(4) Alero
Suggested Bet: Backing Thebelmontgangster
Race 4
Speed looks (2) Xtra Rush from (4) Bergasun and even (9) Pantile Warrior. Looks like they will go at a decent clip.
(9) Pantile Warrior is on the seven day back-up from Flemington last week. Set a genuine tempo there over 2000m before tiring late. Was able to get to 2400m+ back in the UK before coming to Australia. Concern is the back-up off a genuinely run contest and the pressure here.
(2) Xtra Rush was tough on speed in the worst ground at Caulfield last time out. Think he will get 2400m no issue.
Selections:
(9) Pantile Warrior
(2) Xtra Rush
(6) The Western Front
Suggested Bet: Don’t like the race.
Race 5
Suspect (2) Ethereum Girl presses forward with (4) Morgana. Speed looks even.
(8) Just Kick comes through the same race as Classic Gem and arguably went every bit as good. Gets a soft trail here.
(3) Celibate ended up in the worst ground here last time out. Drew out that day in the VOBIS Guineas and just got too far back, can settle handier here. Was good behind Sass Appeal/Ole Dancer at Flemington two back. Gets a gun run here.
Like (6) Savitri as a filly. Concern is she can get quite keen, which could bring her undone stretching to 1700m for the first time. Maps nicely.
(5) Paltrow Miss was good at her Australian debut and the form out of the race has already been strong. Camps right behind the speed and don’t think 1700m will be an issue for her.
Selections:
(3) Celibate
(5) Paltrow Miss
(6) Savitri
(8) Just Kick
Suggested Bet: Small bets Celibate/Paltrow Miss
Race 6
They will run along. (1) Torsheen & (4) Toronado Queen the likely leaders. Plenty of others can push forward.
Couldn’t have been more impressed with the recent trial of (10) Marsept. Still a maiden, but clearly stable have an opinion of her. She ran fifth in her most recent Maiden prior to a spell, just behind subsequent Carbine Club winner Panova. Suspect she will run very well fresh.
(1) Torsheen is airborne and running time. Ran well behind Point Barrow when rolling back to the inside here at Caulfield last start. This is probably a step back in grade, albeit up against some progressive types.
(15) Milos Filos is going to get the softest run you’ve seen and his win at Kyneton was excellent. May need some luck getting off the fence at a crucial stage.
Always had a bit of an opinion of (8) Extragalactic who was dominant first-up at Pakenham when producing a blistering turn of foot. Drawn out, but strong speed will help, and she will want clean air late. She was luckless in the Crockett in the spring and I’ve little doubt she’s up to this level.
(12) Bel Lupa is another I’ve always had plenty of time for. She, too, was breathtaking first-up at Pakenham. Potentially spots them a massive start form the wide draw but step to 1200m ideal.
Race doesn’t end there. This is a cracker.
Selections:
(10) Marsept
(1) Torsheen
(8) Extragalactic
(15) Milos Filos
Suggested Bet: Something EW 1×3 on Marsept at big odds.
Race 7
Really don’t like this race. Speed comes from (1) Celsius Star, (15) I Am Velvet, (5) Rue De Royale, (4) Mytemptation, amongst others. Think the tempo is genuine.
(13) Top Calibre is resuming off a long break but talent level is high. Had three trials to get ready for this and has gone well enough. Nice claim gets him in well at the weights. Maps for the sweetest run you’ve ever seen.
(8) Dancing Storm seems a huge price at $34. Best of his ratings are up to a race like this. Doesn’t win out of turn but was luckless this track and trip last start. Like the wide draw in what looks a fast-run race.
(7) Theblade is right in the game. Trialled well, two wins at the back end of last campaign were excellent. He will probably be better second-up and has a sticky map from gate one, but a winning hope.
(10) Lovelycut could’ve jumped-out a touch better but she’s a classy mare. Will get a soft run but just need some luck at a crucial stage.
Race certainly doesn’t end there. Go wide in the quaddie!
Selections:
(13) Top Calibre
(8) Dancing Storm
(7) Theblade
(10) Lovelycut
Suggested Bet: A peanut E/W Dancing Storm if they’re able to make ground in the middle of the track.
Race 8
Speed comes from (8) Quietness, (1) Bankers Choice, (10) Sea What I See, (15) Stylish Secret and (17) Ambassadorial (if he gets a run).
8yo (1) Bankers Choice ran second in this race last year and now has 5kg more. That said, think he brings better form into this year’s edition having run a bottler in the Peter Young first-up behind Birdman, when in the inferior ground. That was his best run since joining the Hayes yard and he had trialled with plenty of intent prior. Generally goes well second-up.
(5) Benagil produced a couple of big 2000m performances as a 3yo, including running second to Treasurethe Moment in the Vinery. Home 3rd best last 400/200m split of the meeting in the Sunline Stakes after simply getting too far back. Ready for 2000m.
Selections:
(1) Bankers Choice
(5) Benagil
Suggested Bet: Backing Bankers Choice
Race 9
Sheesh, they will roll along here. (7) Wrote To Arataki comes across from the carpark, (1) Here To Shock, (9) El Rocko, (11) Bossy Benita all right there.
Give (4) Von Hauke an E/W chance. He has resumed his last few campaigns over 1100m and has found it too short. But he’s a 1300m first-up winner in the past and the 1400m here fresh is ideal. He can get quite keen, so strong tempo will suit. Trial leading in was super.
(7) Wrote To Arataki is 46 days between runs but she has jumped-out nicely in that time. Going to cop some pressure up front but down to 54kg she is going to take some catching.
(2) Cafe Millenium has a sticky draw to overcome but big field should help Celine Gaudray navigate that. Bias at Flemington killed off his chances last start. Good setup here.
(14) Rumbled Again is a huge price at $91. Has jumped-out nicely. She found form at the back end of last campaign and best has her in the finish.
Selections:
(4) Von Hauke
(2) Cafe Millenium
(14) Rumbled Again
(7) Wrote To Arataki
Suggested Bet: Backing Von Hauke E/W
Race 10
Doesn’t get any easier!
(15) Moonlight Circus looks value. Trial the Sydney way of going at Cranbourne recently was excellent. She will appreciate what looks a strong tempo and form through her last campaign is strong enough to measure up here.
(2) Just Cruisin’ is over from the Apple Isle and he’s right in the game. Has been competitive in some of Tassie’s best races, including being 3L off Steparty in the Hellova Street Stakes. Went around $1.05 in a four-horse field last time out in what was essentially a paid barrier trial. He has often been narrowly beaten by Durazzo which is form that I suspect will measure up here.
(9) Gold Medallist was terrific this track and trip last start and now drops 0.5kg with Emily Pozman’s claim. Pozman knows the mare well having had three wins from four rides and I think she’s riding quite well at the moment. Deserves to be right at the top of betting.
Not mad on the gate, but (1) Give Me Space is going well. Luckless last start. In the mix with the right run.
Selections:
(15) Moonlight Circus
(2) Just Cruisin’
(9) Gold Medallist
(1) Give Me Space
Suggested Bet: Small bets Moonlight Circus/Just Cruisin’, quinella 2,9,15
