Betsy’s Set: Doomben Wednesday

The Plan of Attack:

Turf Talk

Rail 9.5m is a rail that will favour those on speed. Also expecting a hot day and it might just be a leader’s paradise as it dries out and gets faster through the day.

Stats That Matter

• Cejay Graham rode the first three winners on Saturday at this track and might be finding her mojo.
• Gollan doing Gollan things: 12 winners from last 50 runners and +5.4% ROI.

Race 1

(3) Obstructionist (scr) just got past (4) Argerich last start but there’s nothing between them. Feel Argerich can be up on speed and this track will suit it better. (7) Perhaps Perhaps was good through the line over 1700m last start. Up in trip may help. (8) Stoicism was alright at the coast last start but it was a weak race. I do like the 3kg claim here which looks a big help. Pretty average race, to be honest.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 2

(10) Shadwell Lane is the horse with the runs on the board. Narrowly beaten by a couple of handy ones and has to be the one to beat here. The gate is not ideal and just needs a good ride early to get cover. (7) Tszyuya may be able to push forward but can be a little weak late; more for exotics. (8) Power Reece and (9) Regal Rina both trialled well recently — respect any race-day money. (3) Nanterre can be some value in exotics, made ground late last start.

Suggested Bet: Win bet (10) Shadwell Lane if $2+

Race 3

(9) Wootten Hyde was beaten last start but the effort was great. Winner might be handy and there were gaps all through the field after that. Looks well placed here to get a win on the board. (3) Now Is The Hour is a well bred gelding now with Gollan. Both trials up here have been impressive and he’s likely the one they all have to run down late. (8) Wily Jack can be a better horse second prep and always respect this stable. (7) Valedictorian has been good and some hope again.

Suggested Bet: Win bet (9) Wootten Hyde

Race 4

(4) Lonesome Soul comes through the best races. The form from that last race is stronger than what these have faced recently. With a really smart claim for Lang, carries just 53kg and is very well placed. (3) Busker has mixed form but is in a good stable and was a nice winner last time. Harder here but has some upside. (1) Loch Awe is a bit of a non-winner but is consistent. Good stable and can map alright. This is harder for (2) Let’s Do It Again but he might lead and have a little advantage.

Suggested Bet: Win bet (4) Lonesome Soul if $2.50+

Race 5

Don’t like this race and don’t trust many to be honest. (8) Merchant Lady is no star but might be able to use the gate to map well. Rock-hard fit and gets her chance. (5) Pareto isn’t really one of mine but set to peak third-up; might need a drop of rain to be at best. (1) Tonneofgrit was going well this prep but plain last start — if you’re forgiving, easy to make a case. (3) Defiant Spirit, (4) Laydownlily and (2) Xpresso all have winning hopes in a race I don’t want to be a part of.

Suggested Bet: 1w x 3p  (1) Tonneofgrit

Race 6

Another hard race to work out. (12) Zoufani has a good on-speed style and is lightly raced for Gollan. Lacks some class but they haven’t reached the ceiling yet. (2) Facundo has been consistent and the recent trial was okay. The gate is the main issue but with any luck in running, he can win for sure. (7) Rhuvaal and (10) Little Jeanie are easy to make a case for but the negative is both likely map in the second half of the field.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 7

(3) Simply Excels was nice and consistent last prep, including a win on this track. Loved the recent trials — ready to return and just needs a good ride early from Maloney to be right in the finish. I think (12) Kilman might be a decent colt on the way through for Waller. Went around in group races last prep and the recent trial was good. Big watch on the market and might need luck from the gate. (9) Adranos has shown ability for Gollan but just the one win from half a dozen starts. Fitter for two runs back and always respect the leading stable. (11) Meldubious didn’t do everything right last start but it was a dominant win and he could be lengths better for that experience.

Suggested Bet: Split Win bets — (3) Simply Excels and (12) Kilman

Race 8

(5) Creativity Miss is a lightly raced mare with upside. Ran last when resuming but had a poor recovery (elevated heart rate) and I’m happy to forgive that. Needs to hold a spot near the lead from the good gate. (7) Moscow Circus showed good ability last prep, takes a 3kg claim and can map on speed — could be better this prep. (13) Mehretu has been great in recent trials. In the leading yard but can mix form; off the trials I’d expect her to go close. (14) Ivy Dexstress is a good one, has had a year off though and market best guide with her.

Suggested Bet: Quinella 5–7–13