Racing’s ownership affordability issues start at the top

John Messara is right to bring attention back to the economics of ownership. His view that only around 10 percent of owners are breaking even highlights a genuine issue. The cost of participation has escalated to a point where, for most, the numbers simply do not stack up.

But before racing reaches for solutions, it needs to be clear on the starting point.

Since 2014, the average yearling price in Australia has risen by more than 100 percent, while inflation has tracked at roughly a third of that rate. In real terms, the cost of entry has expanded at around three times inflation. That is not sustainable and, at some point, it has to reset.

Bottomless pockets, ego and self-interest often take over in the sales ring, with prices skyrocketing in an instant beyond any logical valuation. But it is not the industry’s responsibility to guarantee a positive return when the price paid for the asset defies common sense.

When the cost of the asset is so clearly disconnected from its realistic earning potential, the issue is not prizemoney. It is that the inputs at the very top of the system have become inflated beyond reason.

That inflation begins well before a yearling enters the sale ring. Stallion fees have surged, broodmare prices have followed, and the entire breeding market has shifted upwards. The top 10 stallion fees in 2014-15 averaged $83,050, in 2024-25 that figure has jumped to $180,050. By the time these horses are offered, the economics are already stretched, and competitive bidding pushes them further beyond any logical valuation.

This is not happening in isolation. It is being driven by the very participants now pointing to ownership losses as a systemic problem. That is their prerogative, but it does not follow that the rest of the ecosystem should be structured to accommodate it.

The proposed solution inevitably circles back to prizemoney, either more of it or a redistribution of it. Messara is right to suggest the current distribution can be improved, but that alone will not solve the problem. Racing still needs marquee races and headline prizemoney moments to drive interest and relevance. Strip that back too far and you risk diminishing the very product that attracts the audience in the first place.

More importantly, it does not address the core issue, which is the long-term sustainability of funding.

READ: Messara sounds Alarm: ‘only 10% of winners break even’

Prizemoney is funded by wagering. It is the punter who underwrites the system, and that funding source is under increasing pressure. Cost of living is biting, competition from other betting products is intense, and attention is harder to hold.

If racing wants to grow sustainably, it has to invest in punters as part of its core strategy. Taxation relief, innovation in bet types and improved data are all starting points, but so too is investment in track infrastructure and transparency. These are practical, high-impact levers the industry controls right now to improve the punter experience, and there are many other punter-focused initiatives that can support long-term demand.

Yes, redirecting funding away from prizemoney may slow its growth in the short term, but that is the trade-off required to grow the overall pie. A larger and more engaged audience drives greater turnover, and turnover ultimately funds stronger prizemoney. The sequence matters.

Training costs sit within this equation as well. The cost of training a horse has increased around 8 percent since 2023, driven by genuine pressures such as labour, transport and vet costs. But it is also clear that baseline training fees have lifted alongside broader industry growth. As more money flows into the system, costs tend to follow, and simply adding more prizemoney risks reinforcing that cycle rather than fixing it.

If the industry is able to grow revenue, one of the most effective levers available is to ease the cost burden on those who feel it most. Smaller owners and trainers are the ones most exposed to affordability pressures, and targeted initiatives such as training fee subsidies or structural cost offsets are both achievable and far more direct than blanket prizemoney increases. A stronger wagering ecosystem gives the industry the capacity to fund those measures over time.

None of this diminishes Messara’s point. Ownership sustainability matters. But there is an uncomfortable tension in the argument, because the top of the funnel remains a major driver of the problem. If that remains unchecked, no redistribution of prizemoney will solve it.

I have seen this tension firsthand. During my time at Racing Victoria, looking at the gap between prizemoney distribution and revenue I quickly formed the view that we were spending beyond our means. The logical response was to curb prizemoney growth and focus more heavily on initiatives that would drive revenue. That position put me at odds with a number of powerful stakeholders and, from that point on, I was effectively on the outer.

But I stand by that view, because it was never about the next 12 months. It was about setting the industry up for the next generation of owners, trainers and breeders.

That is what leadership requires. Not protecting the present, but building something sustainable for the future.

This is a moment that calls for long-term thinking rather than short-term optics. The industry cannot continue to make decisions based on the next annual report or respond solely to the loudest stakeholders pushing for prizemoney growth. Self-interest has to be put aside in favour of a strategy that ensures the health of the sport over the next 25 to 50 years.

Because the reality is this: we cannot keep inflating costs at the top of the system and expecting punters to carry more of the load at the bottom.

Yearling prices need to reset, and long-term growth will only come from expanding the audience rather than stretching the same dollar further.

One final point. While ownership returns are important, for the vast majority it remains a discretionary spend, a form of entertainment. The rise of micro-share models such as MyRacehorse, which now has more than 60,000 owners, shows there is strong demand for more accessible entry points. Whether someone owns 100 percent or a small share, they still have skin in the game and have chosen racing. That is a powerful signal about where the future of participation lies.

Everything else flows from that.