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Warrnambool Brierly Day Tips: Mitch Ellis’ jumps preview and best bets

Mitch Ellis breaks down the jumps action on Brierly Day at Warrnambool, highlighting his best bet, value play and key chances across the hurdles and steeplechase features.

Mitch Ellis by Mitch Ellis
May 5, 2026
in Tips
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Track overview:

Last jumps meeting at the Bool the track played really well. No bias and was even throughout.

Showers forecast throughout the week but a warm weekend means we’ll start with a pretty good surface.

The track is headed into the heavy range after rain on Sunday, with more forecast into Monday.

 

READ: Mitch’s mega guide to the May Carnival here

 

Race 1 – 11:20am – Maiden Hurdle | 3200m

(5) ONGATITI Good on debut, just looks the obvious for me. Was a nice clean jumper, had been good on the flat and in his trials, Pateman back on is a big tick. Looks a bet.

(7) SHAMARKAND Looks a nice jumping prospect, stable are quite happy with him. Trials have been nice and he’ll be fit for racing. He’s a bit one paced but will stick on well.

(6) ROCKET LAD Looks the best of the rest. Not the cleanest jumper I’ve seen but neither are the rest. He’s got enough flat ability and if he can scramble through a couple he might place at big odds.

Suggested Bet: ONGATITI (Win) – $2.45 at Fatbet

 

Race 2 – 12:00pm – Maiden Hurdle | 3200m

(1) ANDY WIN Will be fit from recent racing. Competitive on the flat and has four nice jumps trials leading in, including beating Maiden Hurdle winner Karburan. Jumps well and excels in wet ground. Home track advantage helps.

(5) PALENTINO HEIGHTS Followed this horse through the early part of the season. Huge first up flashing home for second at $31. Trialled like a rocket winning by 25 lengths last week. Looks a great each way play.

(8) TRUE TEST Has been very consistent on the flat as of late. Trialling nicely over the jumps, beating home Enchanted Elle and Mr Waterville on 19/03. Could surprise at odds.

Suggested Bet: ANDY WIN (Win) $3.80 and PALENTINO HEIGHTS (Each Way) $13/$3.40

 

Race 3 – 12:40pm – Maiden Hurdle | 3200m

(1) ARDAKAN Looks the obvious. Solid on debut but tired late, a small mistake at the last potentially costing him the race. With improvement in fitness and Pateman sticking, he’ll be hard to beat.

(8) THE CLAIMANT Going super on the flat before a couple of hurdle trials, including splitting The Storyteller and Shamarkand. Jumps well and is rock hard fit. Home track advantage.

(10) HIGH HEELED Stuck on well at Hamilton narrowly going down to a couple of smart ones. Any improvement off that sees him closer to the finish. Good price to find out.

Suggested Bet: ARDAKAN (Win) $2.15

Race 6 – 2:20pm – Brierly Steeplechase | 3450m

(3) THE MIGHTY SPAR Gets better every race. Gave Leaderboard windburn first-up carrying 75kg and then ran a brave second to Stern Idol at Terang. Race shape suits and he should get the right run with a big weight swing.

(1) STERN IDOL The best horse in the race. 75kg is a huge ask and has already stopped good horses this season. His 2024 Brierly win came under pressure with 73kg. Hard to knock but tough to take at the price.

For those who want to back the champ Stern Idol, Fatbet are boosting the current $1.65 to $3. Click here to bet. 

(6) INSTIGATOR Returned in great form winning at Terang. Trialled nicely behind Stern Idol prior. Likely building toward Thursday but was only 0.4L off Stern Idol in 2024. Watch late.

Suggested Bet: THE MIGHTY SPAR (Win) $7

 

Bet Summary Table

Race Horse Bet Type
Race 1 Ongatiti Win
Race 2 Andy Win Win
Race 2 Palentino Heights Each Way
Race 3 Ardakan Win
Race 6 The Mighty Spar Win

Odds provided by Fatbet (correct as at May 4, 1645). 

Tags: Brierly DayBrierly Steeplechasehorse racing tips Australiajumps racingMay CarnivalMitch EllisWarrnamboolWarrnambool Tips
Mitch Ellis

Mitch Ellis

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