Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R6 (1) Streetcar Fury
Next Best: R4 (9) Gold Spirit
Best Value: R8 (3) From The Block
Turf Talk
- Expecting a Soft 5 track for race day given the conditions during the week, but with clear weather race day the track should be turned out in good condition.
- The rail will be in the True position. The track already has a wide and long straight but will likely be at its most even today.
- Generally, runners with cover in the run get the advantage and runners will likely look to come away from the rails in the straight. Expecting all runners to get their chance if good enough.
Stats that matter
- Grant Kluske brings three strong chances to this meeting and his stable has been successful of late with 11 winners from his last 100 starters, producing a handy POT of +29.5%.
- Tala Hutchinson and Alysha Warren are apprentices making good use of their claim at this time of the year and both have been profitable to follow recently. In their last 100 rides, Hutchinson has ridden 19 winners for a POT return of +32.1%, while Warren has ridden 13 winners to return a POT of +20.9%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(4) Isuspectjeu has been contesting stronger races in her last few starts and drops sharply back down in level to a benchmark grade race so expect she can be capable of sharp improvement. She has won at this distance before and has a light weight after a claim so she should be strong late. (3) Burning Bright also drops in grade, feel she is better suited back to the 2000m trip and the key for her may be the race map here, there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed which could see her find the lead and could prove tough to catch. (5) Peta’s Heart was an impressive winner last start and looks suited rising in distance off the back of that performance, she should be suited in the expected conditions. (2) Maracourt is tough to catch but his best form would prove strong enough to win a race of this level, he has a super record at this track so expect he can go close to finding his best form.
Selections:
(4) Isuspectjeu
(3) Burning Bright
(5) Peta’s Heart
(2) Maracourt
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(6) Torpedoes was well in the market last start and was put under pressure from a long way out before fading quickly. He maps for a softer time here today and may be better suited to get back to the 1200m trip so happy to forgive the last start run and expect he can bounce back. (13) Word Game made a good impression when she finished 4th on debut in a strongly rated maiden, she has been given more time and looked good in a recent trial so potentially comes back here as an improved product. (4) Platino has been scratched from a few races this week clearly looking for the right race and looks likely to line up here. He made a good impression on debut at Horsham despite racing greenly so he should be better for that experience and suited at this track. (3) Arcturus Star has run into the placings in his last 3 and is in consistent form, wont need much improvement to again be a strong winning chance.
Selections:
(6) Torpedoes
(13) Word Game
(4) Platino
(3) Arcturus Star
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(5) Tobikko resumes having showed good talent in his debut prep and going to the paddock as a winner. He has had 2 nice trials leading up to this run so looks in good order, not concerned with the wide barrier from the chute start and he likely goes back anyway. (3) Like A Drifter rises in grade today having won 2 in a row now, hard to knock winning form and he appears to set up well with a soft race map and inform apprentice taking weight off his back. (6) Beyond Mysti dropped back to benchmark grade in her last start and was strongly supported to go on and win, this appears no harder and she sets up well in the conditions. (1) Banknote Hustler won well at Pakenham when resuming and this race doesn’t appear too much harder, if he can handle the conditions and find a level of improvement he could prove hard to beat.
Selections:
(5) Tobikko
(3) Like A Drifter
(6) Beyond Mysti
(1) Banknote Hustler
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(9) Gold Spirit & (8) I Am Velvet went to the line together in their last start and fought out a close finish. Feeling (9) Gold Spirit gets the ideal set up today to be able to turn the tables on the result. He gets an advantage with a weight swing so goes around lighter in the weights but also gets to this Murray Bridge track where he has had good success over previously, so conditions are expected to suit. (8) I Am Velvet may get the softer run of the two up on speed so if (9) Gold Spirit is made to work out wide it may be to the advantage of (8) I Am Velvet. (7) Dobbinair won at Morphettville last start in very easy fashion, this doesn’t appear a great deal harder and he has a good record at this track. (5) Wiggum’s best form rates highly and he comes into this race fresh where he usually performs well. He would prefer a dry track though so potentially the conditions could be against him if they get much worse come race time.
Selections:
(9) Gold Spirit
(8) I Am Velvet
(7) Dobbinair
(5) Wiggum
Suggested Bet: (9) Gold Spirit Win
Race 5
(9) Tiptop Tori was an impressive winner of the Listed Adelaide Guineas in her last start, and she looks a progressive filly who should be hard to beat in benchmark grade. Her closing sectionals in the last start win were impressive, and she may not have found her top level yet. Victorian visitor (6) Lario is in strong form having won two in a row recently. He maps to potentially get a soft lead jumping from barrier 1 and if he can control the race tempo he could prove hard to catch. (7) Placo was a sharp winner 2 starts ago before having a freshen up and heading to Warrnambool for a run. He ran well there but potentially didn’t quite appreciate the genuinely heavy track, he can bounce back to better form in more suitable conditions. (4) I Catchem Fox is an honest runner who has had little luck with conditions and race maps in his last few starts. Jumps from barrier 2 here today and gets in well at the weights so expect he could be capable of finding improvement.
Selections:
(9) Tiptop Tori
(6) Lario
(7) Placo
(4) I Catchem Fox
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(1) Streetcar Fury rates highly and flies around this track having won 3/3 here including 2 over this track/distance. He was a good winner 1st up before putting in a big performance to run a close 5th in a Group 2. This is much easier, and he will be a short price but looks hard to beat in an ideal set up. (7) Heaven Rocks has had a freshen up since a good resuming run in March in a race that has been a strong form race. With plenty of speed likely he could get a soft run from barrier 1 and find himself in a strong position just off that hot tempo. (10) Real Deluxe was an easy winner over this track/distance set up to kick off her campaign, she will race on speed and suited over the sprint trip so can be winning again if she can replicate that last start performance. (3) Grand Host resumes, he isn’t a proven 1st up performer but may get the right set up in this race if they over do it out in front, he may be the runner hitting the line best late and has a good record at this track/distance.
Selections:
(1) Streetcar Fury
(7) Heaven Rocks
(10) Real Deluxe
(3) Grand Host
Suggested Bet: (1) Streetcar Fury Win
Race 7
(3) Joviale has finished within 1L of the winner when running 2nd in both of his last 2 starts, he is in good form and looks close to a breakthrough and likely will appreciate a drop back to the 1800m trip, gets his right set up. (1) Head Of The Herd is in super form having won two in a row coming into this. He hit the line strongly last start so looks capable of rising to the 1800m now and can continue the strong form. (14) Our Sassy Lady hasn’t had the greatest of luck in her last couple of runs but has still been running well despite to tough luk. She drops in grade which could bring on improvement but potentially needs some luck again in the early stages of the race jumping from the outside barrier. (6) Smother has been running well at this distance range despite little results in his last 2 starts, he is dropping in grade here which can bring on a level of improvement.
Selections:
(3) Joviale
(1) Head Of The Herd
(14) Our Sassy Lady
(6) Smother
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(3) From The Block loomed up to win when resuming but faded late and had to settle for 3rd. He maps for an ideal run up on speed from barrier 3 here and looks likely to control the race from out in front. He is fitter now 2nd up and should prove tougher to catch in this set up. (11) Major Rumble resumes down in grade from where he finished his last prep, he is a proven 1st up performer and has a good record at this track so should be capable of a strong 1st up performance. (7) Palm Of Jumeirah produced a career peak rating when resuming at Oakbank 2 starts ago and was well supported in her next start, but she was met with a very wet track which doesn’t suit her and she was disappointing. Happy to forgive that run and expect she could bounce back in better conditions today. (2) Pure Bliss was a good winner 2 starts back in a similar race to this and then took a step up in grade to take on a Group 3 race but she was out classed there and finished out the back. She is capable of improvement dropping back down in grade today.
Selections:
(3) From The Block
(11) Major Rumble
(7) Palm Of Jumeirah
(2) Pure Bliss
Suggested Bet: (3) From The Block Win
Race 9
(4) Big Brute ran a close 2nd when up in grade last weekend and looks well placed on the quick back up today and getting back to the 1400m trip where he has had good success through his career. He has won well here previously and looks well placed in these conditions, expect another forward run and he should be in the race for a long way. (8) Imamanzor is in form having won 2 of his last 3 starts including a win at this track/distance last start. This is a rise in grade which will be his test, but he goes well in these conditions. (12) Tropical House was well supported last start but disappointing in the run. She perhaps didn’t handle the wet track conditions so could be capable of bouncing back in better conditions here today but needs luck from the wide barrier. (10) Nicish has had little luck in her last 2, she may get a chance tom improve here today getting to the bigger track and rising to the 1400m.
Selections:
(4) Big Brute
(8) Imamanzor
(12) Tropical House
(10) Nicish
Suggested Bet: (4) Big Brute Each-way
