Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R1 (10) Tennessee Spirit
Next Best: R4 (10) Loveyamore
Race 1
(10) Tennessee Spirit is a new addition to the Toby Lake stable, having formerly been with Luke Fernie. She has started odds-on twice from two starts and looks the one they all have to beat, particularly given how well she has trialled for her new trainer, who does a great job and exceeds market expectation.
(7) Goodello has been well supported. She was good in two starts before a spell and resumes over five furlongs here. She has speed and should be competitive, although I could not justify having her ahead of Tennessee Spirit in the market.
(11) Farmelia makes her debut against older horses after winning two jump-outs. She missed the start in the latest of them, which is a concern in a race with plenty of speed, though she clearly has ability.
(1) Big Boy Bowie has also jumped out as if he has some talent.
Selections:
(10) Tennessee Spirit
(7) Goodello
(11) Farmelia
(1) Big Boy Bowie
Suggested Bet: (10) Tennessee Spirit – Win
Race 2
(2) Just For Kicks should get the run of the race and is the most likely winner, though I think the current price is too short.
(5) Duntulm Lass lacks early speed and often finds herself in difficult positions. She finished strongly behind Just For Kicks last start and can win if things unfold more favourably.
(6) Goodness can improve after a debut run that was run at a frantic pace. She may not have been ready for that sort of test, and the market support suggested someone had a decent opinion of her ability.
(3) Obon can press forward and is not without a chance.
Selections:
(2) Just For Kicks
(5) Duntulm Lass
(6) Goodness
(3) Obon
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(7) Blue Cowboy returns quickly after a luckless run at this track and trip. Fourth-up now, he is ready to settle handy and run to his best form.
(1) Glenfinnan was similarly unlucky, perhaps even more so, but with the weight swing, the map and the price, I lean toward Blue Cowboy.
(6) Albanian I Am finished with the fastest last 200 metres of the meeting at Ballarat last start. He is third-up and can improve.
(10) Olatunde has to prove he stays nine furlongs for the first time, but if he can hold his level of form, he is a definite chance.
Selections:
(7) Blue Cowboy
(1) Glenfinnan
(6) Albanian I Am
(10) Olatunde
Suggested Bet: (7) Blue Cowboy – Win
Race 4
Excellent race this. There are plenty of progressive, lightly raced runners here who may well go on to better things than this, though (10) Loveyamore, who was excellent on debut, has been largely ignored in early markets. Sectional times have become oversaturated, especially in early markets, but potentially not in this case. He was outstanding winning at Sale and ran sensational closing time, which suggests he is much better than a 17/1 chance.
(1) Prestar has been gelded since his last racetrack appearance and clearly has the best form to date. He started 5/1 in a Listed race won by Grafterburners in December and deserves his place as favourite.
(3) Golden Magnate won narrowly on debut with an excellent figure, finishing eight lengths clear of third. He can win again.
(12) Afterberna demolished a weak field at Pakenham first-up and has to be considered.
Selections:
(10) Loveyamore
(1) Prestar
(3) Golden Magnate
(12) Afterberna
Suggested Bet: (10) Loveyamore – Each-way
Race 5
(3) Beautifully gets blinkers for the first time after a plain run at Warrnambool. He is talented and can roll forward from the wide draw.
(9) Perfect Ten resumed with a peak figure and looked as though she has more to give this preparation. The engagement of Craig Williams only strengthens her claims.
(7) Charming Deel was excellent for the new stable at Warrnambool. That was as good as he can go, whether because of the testing surface or the stable change, but either way the current price looks too big.
(11) Street Lark is trending in the right direction.
Selections:
(3) Beautifully
(9) Perfect Ten
(7) Charming Deel
(11) Street Lark
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(13e) Tolpuddle has been beaten for speed in two runs this campaign, but he is much better suited at 1500 metres and can improve sharply. He has won twice from three starts at this track, and with a short break and a jump-out between runs, this looks very intentional. Mark Zahra taking the ride is another plus.
(5) Dark Simba is probably the best horse in the race and has already run to form that would be more than good enough to win this, though he is first-up.
(1) Yam returned well at Bendigo and should appreciate a soft run.
(14e) Harbour Town won well on debut.
Selections:
(13e) Tolpuddle
(5) Dark Simba
(1) Yam
(14e) Harbour Town
Suggested Bet: (13e) Tolpuddle – Each-way
Race 7
(8) Killiana had not raced for close to a year before resuming at Sale and was narrowly beaten. She has trialled between runs and should improve significantly with Mark Zahra aboard. I could not confidently back her inside 3/1, but nor could I find much to oppose her with.
(9) Lavandula has trialled well for her new trainer, Greg Eurell. She will need to be at her best to win, but that is not out of the realm of possibility.
(1) Call To Glory has plenty of speed and has already shown form good enough to win this race. The change from Craig Williams to Chris Pang is a slight negative, though.
(11) Hustle In Heels has trialled well leading in, and her two best performances have both come first-up.
Selections:
(8) Killiana
(9) Lavandula
(1) Call To Glory
(11) Hustle In Heels
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(16e) Royal Flare is unlikely to get a run as the fourth emergency, but she is highly talented and well suited over six furlongs.
(11) Legacy Bay was too far back last start and ran on strongly. She has shown enough form to win a race of this quality on several occasions.
(9) Persian Caviar was disappointing last start but can improve quickly and is well suited here.
(13e) National Code showed plenty of ability in her first two campaigns and has trialled well leading in.
Selections:
(16e) Royal Flare
(11) Legacy Bay
(9) Persian Caviar
(13e) National Code
Suggested Bet: No bet
