Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne has identified three runners he is keen to oppose on Saturday, believing the market has overestimated their winning chances across Eagle Farm, Flemington and Randwick.
At Eagle Farm, Beirne is taking on King Zephyr in Race 7, who has been a bookies’ pal in his last four starts, turned over at short odds at each start.
While acknowledging the gelding possesses significant closing speed, Beirne believes the map presents a major challenge.
“He maps to settle last in what looks only a moderate tempo,” Beirne said.
“He’s got big sectional power, but he’ll need every bit of it from there.”
Beirne believes the current market underestimates the difficulty of the task to come from last and is happy to oppose the favourite.
“On ratings and map position he looks under the odds. I’m more than happy to take him on.”
Instead, he sees value in a pair of rivals.
“Sun God and Cranky Harry are the two at bigger odds that I’ll be cheering home for the book.”
Bet Legends is also offering a special market on the race, with King Zephyr to win by 1 length or more at $6 (price subject to change).
At Flemington, Beirne believes Race 5 shapes as a two-horse contest but has a clear top selection.
“I think it’s likely a match race, but I’ve got First Chorus well on top on ratings.”
First Chorus is on the quick back-up from Caulfield last week and she’s an absolute mudlark.
He is less convinced by the profile of well-backed rival Duchess Zou, suggesting her most recent victory may have been enhanced by race conditions.
“Duchess Zou was flattered by her Sandown win when suited by conditions.”
“First Chorus has a much bigger bank of winning ratings, whereas Duchess Zou’s profile is more limited and exaggerated by that last-start performance.”
The final lay comes in Randwick’s last race where Beirne is prepared to risk both Nitro and Glorious Moments.
“Nitro in particular looks too short. He’s got upside, but he needs another significant step and I’m betting against that happening.”
While Glorious Moments is rated closer to his current quote, Beirne believes there is little room for improvement.
“Glorious Moments is probably about the right price, but I think his upside is fairly limited as well.”
Beirne will be taking on both runners to round out the day.
