Summary of Best Bets:
Race 7 (13) Golden Eyes
Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 11m
- Drying conditions
- Rail out this far is never ideal.
- Assuming on speed is an advantage.
- Inside gate a huge help from 1110-1200m starting points.
- Confidence not high here.
Stats that matter:
- Ryan Maloney has 9 winners from his last 50 rides and ROI +44.2%. A few good rides without being on faves here.
- Toby Edmonds has the hot fave race 5 and he’s trained 10 winners from his last 50 runners with a ROI +27.4%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Only the two runs for (3) Dominator and he was a lot better with blinkers on at run two. Has been a bit soft late in races but feel they will be on speed and suited.
On the other hand, (4) Extreme Taste had the two runs over 200 days away and was strong late in races. Does get back though and could be disadvantaged by that pattern.
Pass mark for (6) Listen Jani on debut at the coast. Was $4.80 out to $7 there. Can use the inside to box seat and get her chance.
Selections:
(3) Dominator
(4) Extreme Taste
(6) Listen Jani
(8) Our Girl Scarlett
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
(4) Hopeful Cause has only had the three runs and all on very wet ground. Bit of a one pacer but last start was ok and set to show best now he is rock hard fit.
(7) Secret Fenkel is banging down the door to win one but just can’t get it done. 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd in the four runs this prep. Can use the gate to get the right run and should be no excuses here.
(1) Benzino is an on speed horse which will help but is a 12 start maiden. Likes to race on speed and will look the winner on the corner. Lack of class might hurt.
Selections:
(7) Secret Fenkel
(4) Hopeful Cause
(1) Benzino
(3) Future hero
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
(3) Powder Man has had decent CL3 form in Sydney for Highway races which is alright for this. Is a get back horse and that is the little concern here. If they have made ground the first two races, he can win.
(1) Braveheart has been all around it for Gollan. Is tactically versatile and expect the apprentice to use gate 1 to her advantage here. Will get his chance to win.
Everything says (5) Artful Persuasion will need the run and further. Has changed stables though and I liked the recent trial at the coast. I would not be surprised if he runs well.
(2) Winchman has always had ability but was only 2 from 18 before the last start win. Might be an improver this time in and can be around the money again.
(6) Extreme Diamond mixed form horribly last preparation. I just feel he is a better horse than what we have seen so far and expecting to see more this time in work. Money will be the best guide for this fella first up.
(8) Throw It Back has been good at Toowoomba the last two runs but always a little tricky lining that up with the city form.
Selections:
.(1) Braveheart
(2) Winchman
(3) Powder Man
(6) Extreme Diamond
(5) Artful Persuasion
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(2) Nepravda has improved each run since she has joined Heathcote and was a last start winner at this track. Best L200m of the race and should be able to use the gate to get the run of the race here.
I reckon this (3) Galpin is a bloody handy one but she is impossible to be confident with. Just mixes form and you don’t know what you are going to get. Dominant winner in the bush last start, but who knows.
(5) Hurricane Lu has been good without being great this prep. Not the clearest path last start though and feel she can improve 3rd up.
(6) Odessa has good form in Adelaide to start the prep but was weak late at the sunny coast. Will get the right run on speed and in the McEvoy camp. Has to improve off that run, but she has the ability to.
(8) Esprit Du Jour is limited but is a consistent horse for Gollan. Will be somewhere on the speed for Thompson and a chance for exotic players.
Selections:
(2) Nepravda
(5) Hurricane Lu
(3) Galpin
(6) Odessa
(8) Esprit Du Jour
Suggested Bet: No
Race 5:
This simply HAS to be the day for (7) Crash The Party. She is a better horse than these and might be the best maiden in Qld. Well beaten last start after being wide in a Listed race but narrowly beaten by Sylph the start before. Even luck and she should win.
(10) Love Rebel was strong last start. Just peaked on run and might strip fitter here. Lightly raced with some upside for a good stable.
(3) October Manifesto has been good at the last couple of runs and ready to win. Just don’t like that this looks a little harder than last start at the coast.
(12) Yattazou has been plain in Sydney but Waller brings her north and should find it a bit easier up here.
(8) Enterprise Giselle mixes form but still lightly raced and some decent late spits her last couple.
Selections:
(7) Crash The Party
(10) Love Rebel
(12) Yattazou
(8) Enterprise Giselle
Suggested Bet: (7) Crash The Party if anywhere near $2
Race 6:
Yuck, lots of queries here.
(6) Dracena is a good one but is 310 days between runs. Has trialled twice for this and well beaten in both. May need the run.
(7) Holy Flash is limited but is one that can be up on speed and advantaged. Has run well at double figures the last two starts. Du Plessis rides and will look the winner for a long way.
(8) Bollinger Miss looked as though she’d be above average but she doesn’t have a great record (20:2:2:1). 2.2L off Glass Of Rose who’d go close here last start and some hope.
If (2) Man Of The Town brought his best form fresh he can win. Has changed stables and no official trials. If the money comes for him, you have to respect and he was a winner fresh last preparation.
Selections:
(7) Holy Flash
(2) Man Of The Town
(6) Dracena
(8) Bollinger Miss
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (7) Holy Flash is e/w odds.
Race 7:
(6) Riez Souvant was beaten fair and square but still good last time out. Lightly raced for Waller and looks to have more upside than these. Gate just takes a little confidence out.
Like what I see with (13) Golden Eyes. Thought it was a best bet last week and they scratched from that race. This looks harder than that but there is good upside left in this one.
(3) Captain Eagle is one who can be on speed and advantaged. Started the prep well but has been a bit weak late in races. Blinkers back on could help.
(2) Kundabung is ready to show best 4th up and is with Waller. Limited but might sit closer from a good gate and be a chance.
Selections:
(13) Golden Eyes
(6) Riez Souvant
(2) Kundabung
(3) Captain Eagle
Suggested Bet: Win (13) Golden Eyes
Race 8:
Had (1) Automne Tree as a good thing at the coast a month ago and they scratched there. Then run him on a bottomless track fresh where he got a stitch. Worried that might have ripped the guts out of him. If not, he is better than CL1 grade up here.
(7) Rough Cause was a big winner on debut and that is always a sign of a decent one. Led them and still run the best L200m of the race.
(10) Better Not Slip comes out of a Listed race where not much went right. Has the ability to be positive and feel this is a good option for it. Leading chance.
(11) Opetaia and (8) Swag chances but they might spot them a start.
Selections:
.(1) Automne Tree
(7) Rough Cause
(11) Opetaia
(10) Better Not Slip
Suggested Bets: No
