Turf Talk:
- Rail back to the true
- Showers forecast Thursday, Friday and Saturday morning – depending how much falls we could be dealing with anything from a Soft 6 to a Heavy 8-9.
- South-westerly winds are forecast, they favour horses on speed in circle races (1400m +) – this is definitely one to watch through the day.
- Done the form for a fair track. Played beautifully this day last year. But just keep an eye on any impact those winds might have.
Key stats:
- The Patrick Payne stable has been flying all winter but hit a speed hump at Sandown on Wednesday when a range of horses in the market ran poorly (Signed By A Kiss, Off Their Perch, Eleanor Dumont, Forever With Ned).
- Luke Cartwright has sever key rides and will be keen to find the winner’s circle, having booted home three winners from his past 100 rides (-72.6% PoT).
- Alexander Rae has had 15 winners from his past 50 runners, going at 30% SR for a PoT of 79.8%. Low flying.
Race 1
(3) One Day At A Time was narrowly beaten home by Streisand when third on debut this track over 1000m. Was just fair in two Queensland runs when sent on a Magic Millions path but has jumped-out nicely leading into this. The two queries are a wet track and the end of 1200m, especially first up.
(1) Vivid Storm was in the inferior ground on debut at Caulfield before being ridden quieter and winning dominantly last time out. Fit and handles the sting out – so ticks plenty off boxes.
(4) Stars Of Dom is looking for 1200m and gets Willo and a tongue tie. Finished alongside Aston at Sandown last time out, who ran very well at Caulfield in a stronger race last weekend. Step to 1200m will absolutely suit this filly.
(7) Resolutely ran into a handy one named Guest House on debut at Cranbourne, beating the rest comfortably. Interesting she resumes at 1200m here, having debuted at 1000m and racing on speed. That said, she’s been ridden quietly in jump-outs leading in. If she runs up to her debut then she’s going to prove awfully hard to beat.
Suggested bet: Little interest.
Race 2
Not convinced Star Of Macedon was comfortable inside horses in the key 1420m lead up won by (1) Fontein Jewel, but he ran super nonetheless. He has done a great job in his first campaign and any rain-affected track won’t pose a concern. He will relish the 1600m. Gets a 4kg weight swing on Fontein Jewel.
Fontein Jewel draws for a soft run and he will be I this a long way. Mile no issue, wet track not a problem.
(2) Marwooba won an absolute sit-sprint at Rosehill last start. They ran farcically slow time for the 1400m and I reckon he ahs to be some risk here at a mile. That said, on an upward trajectory and gets a soft run for Willo.
Suggested bet: (3) Star Of Macedon the best of the day.
Race 3
(6) Stylish ran third in this race last year and again comes into it in terrific form. Good win over key rivals last time out and now gets Ben Allen back in the saddle, who knows her well. She does give some weight to a horse like (5) Miss Aria, but she’s probably got fitness improvement to come.
Jabez Johnstone has been dominating with his 3kg claim, btu this is a rare winter weekend where he won’t get to utilise that weight edge. That said, he’s still riding well enough to hold his own, and he will give (4) Duchess Zou every chance up on speed.
(9) Barbie’sdreamworld can improve quickly off her first up run at Swan Hill. She was a touch plain there but it was 1200m, only had one jump-out leading in and she’s coming back from injury. Has trialled very well between runs, maps ideally and gets back down in the weights, which is where she’s done her best work. Mile probably suits her even better, but she can be most competitive.
Wouldn’t be a shock to see (2) Lady Jones in the finish at a huge price. She gets the blinkers on for the first time. She was in clearly the inferior ground at Caulfield last time out having only wilted the last 100m the start prior over a mile here at Flemington (1400m suits her better).
Race doesn’t end there.
Suggested bet: Small plays on two roughies: Barbie’sdreamworld/Lady Jones in what is a typically wide-open mares race.
Race 4
Willo takes over from Jabez Johnstone on (1) Decalogue who was dominant over 2000m in a key lead-up. Rises notably in weight and now draws out in gate 18, which isn’t ideal from the 2500m start as it’s a short run into the first bend.
(14) Kings Reflection will eat up 2500m. Was strong on the line (best last 200m of the entire meeting!) behind Decalogue over 2000m last start and now gets a good weight swing in his favour. Deep into his first campaign, so hopefully he has enough one in him, but on last start is a huge chance.
(10) Simply Gold was unlucky not to finish closer to Decalogue when they clashed over 2000m last time out. This bloke is still learning what it’s all about, but he has a great turn of foot for a stayer and the 2500m appears ideal. He’s going to get a long way back from the wide draw, but tempo should be strong, which will enable him to get into the race late.
(12) Thunderbolt Way will stay all day and will give a sight on speed.
(2) Engine Of War was strong late behind Decalogue in Sydney and now gets the synthetic hoof filler off.
Suggested bet: Backing Kings Reflection/Simply Gold
Race 5
This is a race totally devoid of speed. There are nine backmarkers….Maybe (4) Lingani takes it up. It’s an absolute raffle.
Five off these come through a key 1100m lead-up down the straight won by (2) De Bergerac. He’s a very good straight track horse and is just as well suited at 1200m. Wider draw suits.
Think (1) Losesomewinmore got a bit too wide on the track last time out. He was also five-weeks between runs, and I suspect will be open to improvement coming into his grand final.
Loved the return of (5) Samangu who rattled home late behind De Bergerac. She’s a talent on her day and her turn of foot suits straight-track racing.
De Bergerac is a very good straight track horse, loves the sting out and is drawn favourably out wide.
(3) Ndola jumped-out nicely and was a good winner this track and trip last campaign.
(7) Vestas has changed stables from Clint McDonald to Anthony and Sam Freedman and now Clayton Douglas (owing to Freedman disqualification). She’s got a lethal turn of foot but thought her jump-out was just fair and a wet deck would be a query.
Suggested bet: Could throw a blanket over the. Tough start to the quaddie.
Race 6
Stack of these come through the 2500m lead-up won by (4) Vegas Jack.
Thought (10) Highland Blaze was must unlucky last start. He was held up the final furlong and never really able to build momentum. It has been a long time since he has won on the flat but he was also very good in the Roy Higgins at his previous flat start, clearly the best of those from back/wide in a race dominated on speed/inside.
Vegas Jack was off the bit a long way out last start but just kept coming – he’s an out and out stayer who will relish the likely strong tempo. Has to give (2) The Western Front a good deal of weight on their last clash.
The toppy (1) Bold Soul ran second in the race last year and I thought he was super through the line in the key lea-up behind Vegas Jack. Looks ready now.
(8) Wuddzz was six-weeks between runs when running in Adelaide last start. Should strip fitter here and any rain will only further help his chances.
Suggested bet: Something E/W Highland Blaze.
Race 7
Key lead-up is the David Bourke which has provided the last two winners, including (1) Jimmy The Bear last year. (6) Seafall took out what was a race dominated near the speed, which didn’t suit Jimmy. Don’t think there’s much between any of them, but out of the race I favour (3) Al Duca who was seven-weeks between runs, is well weighted, and will put himself on speed doing no work.
(8) Electric Impulse wasn’t in the best ground in the Swan Hill Cup (which Seafall contested before winning the David Bourke) but ran super. She is crying out for another wet track, which it looks like she will get here. She produced a big win third-up last campaign and, if anything, I think she’s going better this time around.
Think (5) Freedom Rally can run a race at odds. He was OK in the David Bourke then didn’t have the best of luck/probably didn’t see out 2000m last week at Caulfield. Ran 4th in a Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup on a 7-day back-up in the past, and has run well each of the three times he’s backed up inside a week.
Wouldn’t surprise to see (11) See That Storm improve notable at his second Australian start, provided he gets a firmer deck.
Suggested bet: Backing Electric Impulse/Freedom Rally
Race 8
(13) Chains Of Love brings different form down form NSW and she’s going to prove awfully hard to beat. Huge win three back at Scone; form out of that race has been solid. She was again pretty dominant at Randwick in winning last start. If there’s a knock, it’s that she hasn’t seen genuinely wet ground.
(7) Falset Star may want a bit further now, but he was in the inferior ground behind (12) Barari and (2) Wise Inlaw, amongst others, down the straight last time out. Blinkers on and wider draw both a plus. Rises notably in weight but gets Billy Egan.
Wasn’t a lot between (2) Wise Inlaw and (12) Barari last time out. Barari is still in quite well at the weights and maps for a slightly superior run.
(9) Ludlum trialled well between runs and comes into this off a good first-up win at Seymour, albeit he did get to the right ground on a day you wanted to be out wide.
Suggested bet: Backing Chains Of Love/Falset Star.
Race 9
Billy Egan rode (1) Clevor Trever very confidently last time out but he didn’t put them away like the market said he would, instead winning in the tightest of photos. Strong tempo here will make this a genuinely run 1600m, which is my one query: is he really looking for a mile?
(3) Obvious was beaten under a length by Clevor Trever two back at Caulfield and I reckon the ground he was in was significantly inferior. Relished getting to a mile this track and trip last start, absolutely belting his rivals. He meets the toppy at similar weights and is no query at the trip – think he’s over the odds.
(2) Kaleo dumped the rider on the way to the gates prior to being passed fit to run before pulling up with EIPH after running midfield. Maps for a lovely run here.
Would be surprised if anything else could win, doesn’t look an overly deep race.
Suggested bet: Quinella 1,3. They really do standout.
