Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 6 – (5) Polyglot
- Next Best: Race 9 – (4) Midnight Dynamite
- Best Value: Race 3 – (14) Kotor
- Best Roughie: Race 5 – (8) Attractiveness
Track Talk
The past two meetings (27/6 +6m and 13/6 +3m) heavily favoured runners that found the rail in transit. However, go back to the (30/5 – True) meeting when the rail was in the True position and the track played very evenly, with winners coming both on and away from the rail. With the rail in the +1m position this week, I expect the track to play very fairly, with lanes 2–6 in the straight proving the place to be.
Stats That Matter
Hot
- Bjorn Baker is striking at 28.8% from his last 80 runners, returning an impressive +40.7% POT.
- Tim Clark is riding well, operating at a 26.3% strike rate and +24.9% POT from his past 76 rides.
Not
- Annabel & Rob Archibald have slumped to a concerning 14% strike rate from their past 93 runners at a -19% POT.
- Braith Nock is struggling at the moment, striking at 12.5% with a -74.8% POT.
Race 1
Island Dec goes on top in the Midway to kick off proceedings here at Rosehill. Impressive last-start winner coming off a sneaky good effort the start prior. Maps ideally and can settle a touch closer today.
Zounaka is the danger. Smart use of the 3kg claim and comes off back-to-back smart efforts. Both Nullarbor Jane and Against The Law bring similar profiles into this event. Consistent types who get in light with the claims. Both lack a killer punch but are in the mix.
Selections
(5) Island Dec
(6) Zounaka
(12) Nullarbor Jane
(13) Against The Law
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Tricky Highway this week with plenty of mixed wet and dry form around the ground. I’ll lean the way of Extrio at odds. Dominant fresh winner backed up with a game effort in town, handles the wet and maps a treat here for a red-hot Pepper camp.
Indi Springs would have gone on top if it wasn’t for the poor draw. Her career peak came last time out on a Heavy 9 over the 1200m, which reads well for this event.
She Within maps much better here. She settled back and wide last start and was never in the picture. I expect Hyeronimus to put this galloper into the race from the draw.
Neeson overdid it last start, fading badly late over the 1200m at Randwick. With a more economical run here, he’ll be back in the frame.
Selections
(20) Extrio
(13) Indi Springs
(22) She Within
(2) Neeson
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Cracking 2yo race which may give us a glimpse of some nice spring 3yos to come. I can’t go past the smart debut winner Omolong. Yes, the time and ratings weren’t “insane”, but forecasting improvement, along with knowing how Chris prepares his horses, he looks perfectly set up to improve sharply second-up.
Kotor is the immediate threat after back-to-back eye-catching trials in very fast time. The other positive is her tactical speed. She’ll land on speed and give a massive sight.
Intrigued to see what Joint Venture can do on debut. His first and third trials suggested there’s an engine under the bonnet. Satin Summer is the bomb-proof map horse. Right stable and right jockey booked. Good race.
Selections
(1) Omolong
(14) Kotor
(6) Joint Venture
(3) Satin Summer
Suggested Bet: Omolong + Kotor WIN
Race 4
One of, if not the best-placed horse in the country this weekend is the Joseph Pride-trained Big Red Tequila. He’s been great in two runs back and looks masterfully placed back in grade from an ideal draw. Yes, $1.55 is short, but he’ll more than likely start even shorter.
The Chris Waller duo of Jellicious and Useapin look the only real dangers on paper. Both map well, with Jellicious the pick of the pair thanks to race fitness.
She Within is next best but needs to improve.
Selections
(1) Big Red Tequila
(2) Jellicious
(5) Useapin
(10) She Within
Suggested Bet: Big Red Tequila WIN
Race 5
Good race this. Key to note the lack of speed expected up front. This suits Attractiveness down to the ground. Dominant fresh winner in soft conditions and can only improve off that effort. Maps to find the one-one and has to start shorter.
I respect the progressive Hello Captain, but at $1.80 he looks too short. Having a cracking prep and maps well with the 2kg claim.
Gorgeous has become costly for punters this prep, going under at $1.20, $2.25, $5.50 and $3.20. In the mix again but needs to regain punters’ trust.
Sequista rounds out the numbers. Smart filly on her day but can drift in and out of form.
Selections
(8) Attractiveness
(4) Hello Captain
(9) Gorgeous
(5) Sequista
Suggested Bet: Attractiveness EW
Race 6
Cracking race and one of the better betting contests on the program. Polyglot is the best bet on the card and at the current $3.40 there is still plenty of juice in the price. A sectional star fresh after covering ground from an awkward position in transit. Smart second-up record and gets a much better setup here.
Keen to see what Just Too Fly can do now that he’s been gelded. The trials have been strong and the booking of Grima is another positive.
Columbia Blue has trialled particularly well leading into this preparation. The wide gate and lengthy break suggest he may need the run.
The consistent duo of Formal and Aleppo Pine round out the numbers.
Selections
(5) Polyglot
(2) Just Too Fly
(7) Columbia Blue
(9) Formal
(8) Aleppo Pine
Suggested Bet: Polyglot WIN
Race 7
Race 7 brings up the staying event of the program. A solid enough tempo is expected.
Keen to follow the lightly raced Engine Of War. Solid last-start effort when five weeks between runs. He strips fitter and maps a treat.
Nasebah has a smart SP profile but was plain last start. Back to the home track is a big plus, but the barrier isn’t. At $3.90 she looks under the odds.
Intrigued to see what the market does late with Mo Chroi. Solid fresh winner on the Kensington track, although this does look a couple of steps up in class.
Shangri La Impact rounds out the numbers, now third-up under the guidance of Charlton.
Selections
(14) Engine Of War
(12) Nasebah
(5) Mo Chroi
(6) Shangri La Impact
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
Tricky event here and there don’t appear to be any huge betting angles.
Smashing Time brings a dominant profile into this preparation and, despite getting favours in his past two wins, again looks to get every chance on speed.
Gatsby’s is a dynamic fresh horse, loves the sting out of the ground and has trialled well.
Eye Of The Fire boasts a solid second-up record, handles all conditions and stays at 1200m.
Dollar Magic is best of the rest. The rise to 1200m is the big tick, as are the wet conditions. Good roughie.
Selections
(12) Smashing Time
(6) Gatsby’s
(5) Eye Of The Fire
(10) Dollar Magic
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
Feature event of the program and it shapes as a cracker.
Keen to see what level Bjorn Baker can get Midnight Dynamite to. Dominant last-start winner and again looks suited over the 1400m. I don’t mind the wide gate as it’ll likely force McEvoy’s hand early and should see him roll forward. From there he’ll see clear air much earlier than his main rival.
Glorious Moments is the main danger after a slick last-start win from an inferior position in running. Loves the wet and gets in well at the weights.
General Salute looks suited from the inside draw. He should enjoy an economical run and peaks third-up.
Cool Jakey did beat Midnight Dynamite two starts back. Another drawn wide but should roll forward.
Selections
(4) Midnight Dynamite
(15) Glorious Moments
(1) General Salute
(5) Cool Jakey
Suggested Bet: Midnight Dynamite WIN
Race 10
This race has been flipped on its head with short-priced favourite Tarzing coming out on Friday afternoon. That puts Supermassive in the box seat after a consistent run of form and what should now be a very soft lead. Hard to beat.
Puntin is one of the harder horses to get a guide on off his trials. They’ve been okay this prep, but he is coming off back-to-back plain efforts. He’s been well backed in early markets and should roll forward from the draw.
Invader Zim has been running well. The sting out of the track is key, while the good draw is another positive.
Montpellier has caught the eye at the trials with an impressive 900m hit-out. The wet track is the only concern.
Selections
(5) Supermassive
(4) Puntin
(13) Invader Zim
(3) Montpellier
Suggested Bet: No Bet
