Turf talk:
- Rail goes out 3m after being true at the last meeting
- Light winds should only help those on speed.
- No rain forecast for the rest of the week, so suspect we get to a Soft 6, or even a Soft 5.
- Not banking on any particular pattern, think we can attack the meeting with confidence.
Key stats:
- Jabez Johnstone continues his winter domination, going at 23% his last 100 rides (PoT 25.4%).
- Fellow Tasmanian Jackson Radley has ridden ten winners his past 50 (45% PoT).
Race 1
Disappointing turnout for the 1800m Byereley, but the winner is there to be found.
I have (2) Notified marked favourite, so can’t believe the gap between her and (1) Ko Phangan. Get it – she’s coming off a synthetic maiden – but she won with good authority and looks all over a progressive stayer. Gotta bet at the $3.60 on offer.
Ko Phangan has a good hope, no doubt. Cleary had the measure of (3) Achy Breaky Heart and Stunning Kitty last start but does go up 5kg on that effort. Willo is chasing a premiership, so he will be aggressive here off gate one. Just can’t get him as short as the market.
Strange things can happen in small field, tactical races, but would be surprised if any of the other three can win.
(2) Notified
(1) Ko Phangan
(3) Achy Breaky Heart
(4) Delahra
Suggested bet: Backing (2) Notified (NEXT BEST)
Race 2
Cracking race. A few very talented 2yo’s in the line up.
Excited for the return of (1) Hard Kick who put down one of the best 2yo wins of the season on debut in the Talindert. Belted Zambales, who was unlucky in a Diamond subsequent to that. And the form out of the race was super strong. He has trialled up nicely for this return and the straight-track experience will stand him in good stead.
(9) Panchenko put down a monstrous performance when winning on debut at Bendigo. Reeled off the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting and ran much quicker time than the BM66 later on the card, despite the track being upgraded between. Not as important at 1000m as it is over longer trips, but she does get a good weight pull on Hard Kick.
They don’t trial much better than (7) Riverina Lulu who makes here debut for the Begg stable. She covers the ground very well and looks ton have a good turn of foot.
(9) Pocketfullofccash has also trialled nicely and can run well.
(1) Hard Kick
(9) Panchenko
(7) Riverina Lulu
(6) Pocketfullofcash
Suggested bet: Can’t bet. But think we will see three very nice horses here in 1,7,9.
Race 3
Even race, as these mares’ racings races can be. Not huge speed on paper but these apprentice only races can often be run at a strong tempo.
Give (2) Barbie’sdreamworld a good hope. She was well backed in the Leilani Series Final last start but ended up drifting a fair way back in a moderately run race, and ‘sit-sprinting’ isn’t her go. Third-up now off a long spell is the right time to press the button and push forward. Think the mile is her best distance. In this up to her ears.
(3) Changing Colours ran very well at her debut for Lucy Yeomans. Draws a good gate, but she does struggle to hold a position early – would love to see them ride a bit more aggressively the first 200m to try and hold a spot. Luke Cartwright has had a sit on her which is a positive in this apprentices only race. Think an improving track would only be in her favour.
(5) Madiyya gets the blinkers on for the first time. She was bloody plain last start at Caulfield but she did pull up lame, so excuse there. Goes well at HQ and Jackson Radley is riding well.
Step to 1600m will suit (10) Marine Empress down to the ground. First up run was better than it looked and can roll forward with 51kg on her back.
(3) Changing Colours
(2) Barbie’sdreamworld
(5) Madiyya
(10) Marine Empress
Suggested bet: Small bets Changing Colours/Barbie’sdreamworld.
Race 4
(3) Davida settled rearward after being a touch slow at Caulfield last week – suspect they will ride her aggressively and look to lead. (14) Laura Eliza right up there. Will be interesting to see how they ride (9) Off Their Perch after she knocked up badly last start – I suspect quieter.
Laura Eliza looks a real talent. Sat deep, no cover on debut and was game to the line in a strong maiden. Relished the step in trip to 1400m last start and belted her rivals, with big gaps right through the field. Willo takes over and maps for a good run on speed.
Think (11) Salizou is a big chance if she backs up here. She beat a pretty handy horse in Endless Summer last Sunday and the step to 1400m suits.
(2) Cherish Me has a bit of class and gets Jabez’ valuable 3kg claim. Was a touch plain last start at Rosehill but there was a significant pattern and she wasn’t in the best going.
Jabez is also booked on (8) Misapprehend, so suspect she goes to Seymour? If she’s here, she has a hope.
(14) Laura Eliza
(11) Salizou
(2) Cherish Me
(8) Misapprehend
Suggested bet: Backing Laura Eliza/Salizou – keen on the race.
Race 5
(10) Mr Avery really interests. He has a bad habit of missing the kick, which isn’t ideal, but he’s a stayer of real promise. Won from a near-impossible position three back, spotted a handy horse a mammoth start two back before bolting in under double wraps last start. Form around is only fair, but he will relish the big Flemington straight.
(8) Flying Khan was very good late when second to Clever Trevor in the Silver Bowl Final – that’s a key form reference for this with several runners coming through it. Looks like getting buried away on the fence from gate two but should appreciate what looks a strong tempo.
(6) Chowdown was first past the post at Sale last start but was rightly relegated to third on protest after shifting out badly late. Not 100% convinced on him at 1400m and he needs to tidy up his manners, but has some talent.
(15) Jimmy Beans bolted in against very moderate opposition at Sale. Gets the shades on and looks like he will stay all day. The Redwood progeny generally get better with racing and distance.
(10) Mr Avery
(8) Flying Khan
(6) Chowdown
(15) Jimmy Beans
Suggested bet: Keen E/W Mr Avery – terrific bet at $16 (BEST BET)
Race 6
Tempo-wise, a lot depends on how they ride (8) Stern Idol. He’s a free-rolling, frontrunner over the steeples, but he hasn’t had many recent flat runs. Suspect he will be up on speed along with (3) Black Run.
Not sold that Black Run is looking for 2800m. Got quite keen up on a strong tempo in Sydney last start, which is somewhat concerning stretching in trip. He was well beaten there by the other on speed horses. His three wins on end last campaign all came in moderately run 2000-2400m races, so if Stern Idol does apply the acid early he might be found wanting late. That said, he’s racing well and will be in this a long way.
Hard to knock (6) Highland Blaze. He had no luck two back and then belted his rivals in the Banjo Patterson – the key lead-up – last start. Yes he concedes a bit of weight, but if anything he’s better suited with the extra furlong and he has the blinkers going on for the first time. Deserves to be favourite, for mine.
The toppy, (1) Bold Soul also gets blinkers for the first time and he ran well behind Highland Blaze last start. Gets a 3kg swing in his favour, which should help close the gap, and any improvement in the track is only going to help his chances – he’s more a drier deck horse.
(6) Highland Blaze
(1) Bold Soul
(3) Black Run
(9) Samuel Longhorne
Suggested bet: 1,3,6 in quaddie
Race 7
Long spell for (2) Home Rule, but hoping they’ve just been waiting for wet tracks again. He’s a horse that relishes the sting out and he goes very well fresh. Liked his recent Burrumbeet jump-out, think he’s drawn well out wide on then track and he’s much better resuming at 1200m than the 1000m of last campaign. Beat home Baraqiel this track and trip in the winter of 2024….
Tipping (9) Mr Verse sprint well fresh. Won first up over 1200m last campaign when reeling off good late splits at the Sunny Coast on Cup Day. Trials have been good for the new stable. Drawn well.
(11) Barari is racing very well and she has a liking for the straight. Tackles the older horses but it’s not a strong race with a few of these racing below their best. Gets the cheat code: Jabez Johnstone’s 3kg claim.
(15) Zetheus is going well and its easy to make a case that he’s over the odds at $34 +.
(2) Home Rule
(9) Mr Verse
(11) Barari
(15) Zetheus
Suggested bet: Backing Home Rule/Mr Verse
Race 8
Thought (2) St George did a good job first up vs the pattern in the David Bourke. Step to 2000m is ideal and think a likely strong tempo suits him. With a good ride from Emily Pozman he can prove awfully hard to beat.
Had something on (5) Freedom Rally in the Winter Championship final and thought he was home for a stride or two at massive odds… He’s still a query at 2000m but he seems over the odds at $14.
(12) Think Giant seems short at $3, but a bit of Willo tax in there and he was strong late at his first Australian start. 2000m suits and drops notably in weight up in class.
(6) Glory Daze had a picnic in front winning at Rosehill last time out but he’s shown he can also do it in faster run races.
(2) St George
(5) Freedom Rally
(12) Think Giant
(6) Glory Daze
Suggested bet: All four in the quaddie.
Race 9
(11) Street Artist will take plenty of beating. He got a mile back on a day you wanted to be closer speed at Caulfield last time out. Blinkers go on for the first time and think an improving track is in his favour. He ran well behind Pallaton at his only run down the straight as a gelding and a repeat of that will see him the horse to beat here(had one run when still a 2yo colt). Like the wide draw.
(9) Landmark ran well against the pattern at Caulfield last time out. He’s got a very good turn of foot that suits straight-track racing. Another that looks well drawn out wide.
Not sure (13) Next Step Iowa relished the more moderate tempo last start – she was quite keen but still travelled into the race like she would put it away weakened badly late. Form prior was good and drop back to 1000m no issue. Gets Willo and a wide draw – both positives.
(8) Per Sempre is a marvel. She puts in every time she goes to the races and the drop back to 1000m is in her favour.
(4) Prima Bella is fit and racing well. She’s a good 1000m horse and should be in this a long way.
(11) Street Artist
(9) Landmark
(13) Next Step Iowa
(8) Per Sempre
Suggested bet: Can have something small Street Artist/Landmark.
