The Flemington Cup is steeped in history, tracing its roots back to 1849, and now carries the name of the great Deane Lester. It is a fitting tribute. This year’s renewal looks like a good edition, with four of the ten runners emerging from the Banjo Patterson Series Final. Grand National Hurdle winner Highland Blaze was dominant on the day, tearing down his rivals on the flat, though the race did not rate especially well, making an alternate form line overly compelling.
Black Run presents that differing option to punters, representing Sydney’s premier staying form through King Pedro and Thebudgiesmugla.
He’d been respected in both races, sent away $7.50 and $10, respectively. His latest run, when comprehensively beaten by King Pedro, can be ignored. The pace was blisteringly fast, and he was in the heat of it. Once the race was gone, he was eased down and left the bare result a poor reflection of the form.
In that context, the most useful assessment is to measure him against the level the market expected of him. On that reading, he emerges as an intriguing runner to price. One that can be given far more credence than the current market is giving him.
He strung together three wins last campaign, including two wins at Caulfield that produced figures strong enough to beat this field. He’s not a horse that possesses a turn of speed, so a searching 2800 metres may play into his strengths, while others not quite so much.
Perhaps optimistically, I’ve marked him $2.60 on the basis of the level he was expected to run to last start, and I’m inclined to oppose Highland Blaze as I’ve taken a dislike to his credentials of replicating the standard of performance he produced last time.
The staying contest for the two-year-olds, the Byerley Handicap, has attracted only five runners, which is a disappointing result. Where are all the Derby and Oaks hopefuls?
Still, every winner pays the same. The favourite, Ko Phangan, is the logical starting point after his Taj Rossi Final run, where he travelled well and looked the winner before failing to see out the mile. That remains a concern, no matter how slowly this race may be run.
Notified is the intriguing one. She only broke her maiden at Ballarat Synthetic last start, but this is a modest race, and she measures up well against this grade of opposition. She raced without cover over 1500 metres and beat older horses, albeit they were not of a high standard. Even so, she rates highly and looks well suited to 1800 metres. I marked her $2.40 and essentially had her and Ko Phangan swapped as favourites.
Madiyya is the rightful favourite in the Rising Stars Series Final.
She is still winless this campaign, but she has hardly run a bad race, excluding last start when she had evident excuses. Blinkers go on for the first time, and I expect the plan will be to press forward and take up the lead. I made her $3.50, and am hopeful to see $4.00 available on race day.
Will’s suggested bets:
R1 Notified
R3 Madiyya
R6 Black Run
