A cracking jumps meeting awaits on Sunday, headlined by two feature races: the $250,000 Grand National Hurdle and the Crisp Steeplechase, which is the main lead-up to the Grand National Steeplechase in two weeks’ time.
The track was rated a Heavy 10 as of 9am Friday. With temperatures of 14, 16 and 18 degrees forecast across the next three days and no rain expected, the track should dry out considerably. Expect it to be in the Soft 7 to Heavy 8 range by Sunday.
Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 2 – Ongatiti
Value Plays:
Race 1 – Gripping
Race 4 – Sing For Peace
Early Quaddie: 1,2,5 / 2,3 / 1,4,5 / 1,2
Race 1 – BM120 Hurdle (12:20pm)
Golden Crusader (2) has been racing well without winning. It took Ongatiti and Andy Win to run him down late two starts back before he produced another nice run at Casterton last start. He gets back onto a big track in a weaker race and should be hard to run down.
Split (1) returned with a hard-fought victory last start, more than a year after his previous jumps appearance. He can definitely build on that performance and has the turn of foot to finish strongly in tough conditions.
Gripping (5) keeps putting himself into races, although there is a slight query over his turn of foot at the end of these extended trips. He should be right in the contest approaching the 600-metre mark and the bigger track suits.
Zinovation (3) has made a great start to his jumping career. He will need to improve again to win this, but he is capable of finishing in the placings.
Selections
(2) Golden Crusader
(1) Split
(5) Gripping
(3) Zinovation
Suggested Bet: Something small on Golden Crusader.
Race 2 – Grand National Hurdle, 4200m (1:00pm)
Ongatiti (2) has been consistent throughout the season. He has met Andy Win twice previously, with the score sitting at one win apiece. The one time they met at this track, Ongatiti beat Andy Win fair and square. He was an easy chase winner last start and can win again here.
Gambu (3) was set for this race last year but never made it to the starting line. His recent form suggests he may struggle to win, but he continues to run honest races and has been strong through the line. He handled the 5500 metres of the Grand Annual without any issue, so the 4200 metres will suit. He is fit enough and worth something small at a price.
Andy Win (1) ran into a superstar last start but fought hard to finish second. His chase trial since was satisfactory. The 4200 metres is the query, but his stable and willingness to fight cannot be questioned.
Ardakan (4) continues to cost himself races with his jumping. The longer trip may suit, but the form suggests the leading chances probably have his measure at this stage.
Selections
(2) Ongatiti
(3) Gambu
(1) Andy Win
(4) Ardakan
Suggested Bet: Win bet on Ongatiti and a small each-way play on Gambu.
Race 4 – Crisp Steeplechase, 4200m (2:20pm)
Stern Idol (1) is hard to go past. He gets into this favourably with 71kg, while his latest flat run was solid. He can finish his career with another victory.
Sing For Peace (2) is the obvious danger. He defeated Stern Idol last time, albeit with an 11.5kg weight advantage. A 10-length margin while pulling away was decisive, however, and the 4200 metres gives him a genuine chance of winning again.
Mr Lincoln (5) has been crying out for a longer trip all season and finally gets it here. Forgive his last-start performance when the track was beyond bottomless. He continues to race honestly and can produce another bold showing on his way towards the Grand National Steeplechase.
Hit The Road Jack (4) was excellent during the May Racing Carnival, finishing second in both the Brierly and the Grand Annual. He has been given plenty of time since and has completed two recent maintenance trials. He can run well here.
Selections
(1) Stern Idol
(2) Sing For Peace
(5) Mr Lincoln
(4) Hit The Road Jack
Suggested Bet: Sing For Peace is the value play.
