Deano’s Rosehill Preview: Preview, tips and best bets

Summary of best bets:

Best Bet: R10 (12) Jarrito

Next Best: R7 (8) Tarzing WIN

Best Value: R8 (2) Run Harry Run

Best Roughie: R5 (8) Velaris

Turf Talk

• Expecting a Good 4 to Soft 5 surface.
• The rail is out 7m from the 800m to the winning post and 6m for the remainder, which should allow the track to play fairly.
• Expect a slight advantage to runners able to utilise the inside lanes before peeling into the better ground wider in the straight.

Stats That Matter (Metro, last 90 days up to $10 SP)

Hot

• Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes are striking at 26.9% from their past 31 metropolitan runners under $10, returning an outstanding +31.8% POT.
• Nash Rawiller continues his excellent form, riding at 26.8% with a +18.4% POT from his past 71 qualifying rides.

Not

• Nacim Dilmi has managed just an 11.1% strike rate from the past 18 runners, producing a -30.5% POT.
• Braith Nock has found things difficult recently, striking at just 8.2% with a -53.9% POT.

Race 1

It looks a two-horse race to kick off proceedings here in this week’s Midway. Happy to back Attractiveness and Hellova Nature, both look much better suited here on top of the ground and map wise. 1400m is their sweet spot and both get in very well at the weights. Koios recorded a career peak last time out, Lloyd booked in the saddle and is another who maps well. Krasina loses Lloyd but gains a good gate here, another who brings smart last start figures to this event.

Selections

(9) Attractiveness
(1) Hellova Nature
(6) Koios
(12) Krasina

Suggested Bet: Attractiveness WIN

Race 2

One of the more intriguing Highways you’ll find. All the talk and money has been for Sobek, a progressive youngster who tackles 1200m for the first time. With plenty of pressure speed map wise, I dare say Izzy Neale will look to take a slight sit off the speed but still be in the first six in running. At his best, he’s the one to beat. Wayburn will look to find a spot on speed but may have trouble from gate 11, the Dunn x Nash combination is always a positive in these Highways. Somerton Smart finally found form last time out, 2kg claim here with Grima aboard and maps to eat up this speed. She Within rounds out the numbers off a solid last start placing.

Selections

(7) Sobek
(3) Wayburn
(8) Somerton Smart
(4) She Within

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 3

Keen to side with the Les Bridge-trained Columbus. Dominant first-up win this prep, albeit copping a snail pace up front and some traffic issues at a key stage. Up 100m and should enjoy a stronger tempo here now second up, the other big tick is James McDonald takes over. Keen. Barking Mad is the danger, back-to-back high-rating wins down in Melbourne, goes up to 1500m which is the query but should get the run of the race from barrier 4. Funshow was solid last time out when winning at Hawkesbury. 1500m is a slight query, as is barrier 8. Sponars is rock hard fit after plenty of racing, harder here but racing well.

Selections

(2) Columbus
(3) Barking Mad
(4) Funshow
(7) Sponars

Suggested Bet: Columbus WIN

Race 4

Surprised to see Gatwick so long here. Since coming to Sydney he has found 2-3 lengths. Solid win before a Heavy 9 third-up run saw him regress. Back to a dry deck and stays at 1200m with Lloyd sticking, all reads well. Andrea has been well backed in early markets, smart last start placing with a huge gap back to third. Stakeholder comes here second up off a solid fresh win. Natural improvement, but this does look harder. Kwirky Smile and Crown The King both go in the numbers. A win wouldn’t shock.

Selections

(4) Gatwick
(8) Andrea
(7) Stakeholder
(10) Kwirky Smile
(2) Crown The King

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 5

The staying event on the program, tricky race overall with plenty of horses having winning claims. Velaris dropped back to midweek grade last time and saluted in smart fashion. I doubt this is any harder class wise, albeit on a Saturday, and the rise back to 2000m is a positive. Cheval De Bois peaks now and gets in well at the weights with the claim. Sticky map early, but the small field helps. Mo Chroi was plain second up. Third up now I dare say the work has been poured into him. Gate 1 with Clark in the saddle reads well. Horizons rounds out the numbers on the quick back-up.

Selections

(8) Velaris
(9) Cheval De Bois
(3) Mo Chroi
(10) Horizons

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 6

Little to no tempo up front here over the 1400m, tactical contest with a few progressive types. Enviable goes on top, dominant fresh display when eased down 100m to go. Stays at 1400m and can land on speed from the draw. I respect the last start SP of Aye Aye Captain, the move from a Heavy 9 to Good 4 is key also, proper danger. Ticklebelly did a good job on speed last time out in the testing conditions, another galloper who will enjoy the firmer track. Perata’s Gem is next best after an encouraging fresh run.

Selections

(3) Enviable
(5) Aye Aye Captain
(2) Ticklebelly
(9) Perata’s Gem

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 7

Big field and plenty of tempo up front to go with it. Tarzing is the best horse in the race but does come up with a sticky gate. Dominant last start win, five weeks off and again impressed in a lovely tick-over trial. The stablemate United Kingdom is the danger. Lovely recent trials and looks well placed on top of the ground over 1400m fresh. Puntin can improve here. Doubt he liked the wet track last time out. He looked a lot better in a recent tick-over trial and comes here licking his lips at the Good 4 surface. The on-speed type Steel Strike has been saved for this contest and goes in the mix.

Selections

(8) Tarzing
(12) United Kingdom
(6) Puntin
(11) Steel Strike

Suggested Bet: Tarzing WIN

Race 8

Not a whole lot of speed to report up front here. Run Harry Run goes on top purely on the speed map here. Solid fresh win where the sectionals suggest 1500m now second up is suitable. Stick to a dry deck and finds Nash. I was desperate to find Democracy Manifest off a very sharp recent trial. He flies fresh and finds McDonald but will likely settle last with it all to do. The positive is the small field. I expect Lloyd to be on his game here with It’s A Knockout and roll forward. Deep into the prep and with a race that lacks speed, 500m until the first turn looks a logical plan. Narbold was solid again last time out, maps sticky but goes in the mix.

Selections

(2) Run Harry Run
(4) Democracy Manifest
(10) It’s A Knockout
(12) Narbold

Suggested Bet: Run Harry Run WIN

Race 9

Solid enough speed expected up front over the 1300m here. It looks to be a tactical event with a couple of the key chances drawn to land off speed. Happy to side with Altoff who gets a lovely set-up here fresh, 2kg claim and looked very strong in a recent trial where the blinkers stayed on. Fire Star had to do it tough at Grafton when posted three-wide the trip. Up to 1300m won’t bother him and the map reads very well on paper. Intrigued to see what the money does late with both Cigar Flick and World Alliance, both have been specked in early markets and look to get their chance. Tricky race.

Selections

(12) Altoff
(2) Fire Star
(1) Cigar Flick
(15) World Alliance

Suggested Bet: No Bet

Race 10

Speed on speed expected from the 1100m chute start here in the last. The Bjorn Baker trained Jarrito looks the key player on paper. From the important starting point Jarrito goes on top with that cosy barrier. Dominant last start display when getting back on top of the ground and gets a similar setup here and is the horse to beat. Polyglot’s last start win had merit when closing off back towards the clearly inferior inside going. Love the gate and love the speed up front for him to pounce on. Interesting booking with McDonald taking the reins on Zouripper, a horse in form but will need to be at his best to offset that negative racing pattern. Harder here for Huon but does love racing over this trip.

Selections

(12) Jarrito
(5) Polyglot
(10) Zouripper
(7) Huon

Suggested Bet: Jarrito WIN