Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 1 No. 8 Queen’s Gamble (WIN)
- Next Best: Race 2 No. 7 Glissando (WIN)
Track Details
- Expecting a Good 4 – Soft 5 track here.
- The rail is in the true position, which normally suggests this track should play pretty fair throughout the day.
- No disadvantage to land in the first half of the field or on the rails.
Stats (Metro, last 90 days up to $10 SP)
Hot
- Richard & Will Freedman are striking at 27.8% from their last 18 runners, returning an impressive +71.9% POT.
- Tim Clark is riding well with a 28.4% strike rate and a +35.0% POT from his past 67 rides.
Not
- Joe Pride has slumped to a concerning 13.7% strike rate from his past 51 runners, returning a -23.2% POT.
- Braith Nock is struggling at the moment, striking at 4.2% with a -76.8% POT.
Race 1
Good 1200m maiden to kick off proceedings here at Canterbury. The rail is in the true position, which normally suggests this track should play pretty fair throughout the day. No disadvantage to land in the first half of the field or on the rails. Keen to find the Matt Smith-trained Queen’s Gamble, loved her trials prior to drawing poorly first up, before producing smart late sectionals behind the progressive Krasina. Maps ideally now and should improve back on top of the ground. Phantom Major was a good thing beaten first up, key jockey upgrade with James aboard and from gate 6 he should stalk Queen’s Gamble. Lava Flow is unbeaten at the trials, looks to be a speedy on-pace type who will take running down. Endeavour has been seen at the trials plenty of times, another nice type who may need the run though.
Selections
(8) Queen’s Gamble
(2) Phantom Major
(6) Lava Flow
(5) Endeavour
Suggested Bet: Queen’s Gamble WIN
Race 2
Intriguing race. Glissando looks to get away with a very cheap lead out in front here. Back to a dry deck last time out was the key to that 3.5L romp. She goes back to the midweeks now and finds McDonald in the saddle, up to 1500m which all reads well. Viva Mauricio was dominant fresh at Hawkesbury before striking a wet track second up and failing. Back to a dry deck here with the 2kg claim reads very well. Namaste will settle on speed here, third up and peels with the blinkers going on. Fresh winner Blenheim Girl strips fitter second up and gets her chance to go back-to-back.
Selections
(7) Glissando
(5) Viva Mauricio
(1) Namaste
(6) Blenheim Girl
Suggested Bet: Glissando WIN
Race 3
Wide open contest here with good speed expected up front. I’ll lean the way of Harry’s Evidence, he can mix his form but has a solid fresh record. The key to his success is dry decks and getting him to settle early in his races. Royal Air Force is going better than his record suggests. A key jockey change but does draw very sticky. The Little General gets back on top of the ground, which is a query. Plain last start but will be rock-hard fit here. Gambler is next best, another third-up galloper who will be peaking in condition.
Selections
(4) Harry’s Evidence
(5) Royal Air Force
(6) The Little General
(2) Gambler
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Solid speed expected up front over the 1900m. I can’t go past the dominant last start winner in Aethelwulf. Loved the progression going from 1400m to 1600m, with a similar progression expected now to 1900m. Again, he looks hard to beat. Kapakiri stays at 1900m but gets back on top of the ground and has McDonald in the saddle. Needs to improve but can. Not sure what to make of the first-up effort of Seon Linn, back to the midweeks and gets in light with the claim. Covert Thinking gets in light with the 3kg claim for Stanley.
Selections
(6) Aethelwulf
(2) Kapakiri
(9) Seon Linn
(10) Covert Thinking
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Big field with huge amounts of speed expected up front over the 1100m. Runs in transit will likely dictate the overall outcome of this event. Plenty of winning chances, Raskol looks to get the right set-up here deep into the prep. Dry deck and has a win on the board around Canterbury. Dietrich has to go in the mix, from the lovely draw he should find the 1-1 throughout. He was second in a recent trial behind the first-up Saturday winner Annie’s Rose and gets in light with the claim. Not sure what to make of Brown Sugar’s trials, we’ll lean on the market late. Dee Dee Express rounds out the numbers for an in-form Matt Dale camp.
Selections
(6) Raskol
(5) Dietrich
(2) Brown Sugar
(11) Dee Dee Express
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Another capacity field here with plenty of speed expected up front over the 1250m. Snack Bar was luckless last time out when striking traffic at the 200m mark, back to the midweeks here and should find the rails in running from gate 1. Clancy has trialled up like a rocket but draws awkwardly here fresh. The big field and speed on definitely helps his cause though. Useapin can improve sharply here third up getting back on top of the ground. Three of her four wins have come on Good tracks. Oakfield Neptune is next best, gate 9 should look a touch better come scratchings, smart booking of Berry also.
Selections
(1) Snack Bar
(5) Clancy
(11) Useapin
(8) Oakfield Neptune
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Another contest with plenty of speed expected up front over the 1550m. Let’s Fly was gallant last time out behind a red-hot Mona Lisa, back 50m and back to midweek grade reads well. The cherry on top is gate 1. Chris Waller-trained Standard Deviation is the big market watch, okay trials but we often see these horses perform very well fresh first up. Conchiero gets in light with the claim racing on the quick back-up and goes in the numbers. Sister Daae maps ideally deep into the prep, consistent type who will eat up the fast tempo expected up front.
Selections
(6) Let’s Fly
(7) Standard Deviation
(1) Conchiero
(11) Sister Daae
Suggested Bet: No Bet
