Summary of Best Bets:
Race 7 Trifecta: 1,6 // 1,3,6,14 // 1,3,4,6,10,14 ($24 for 100%)
Race 9 (1) Anemacore
Quaddie: Updated race day after scratching’s.
Leg 1: 2,14,16,20
Leg 2: 1,3,6,14
Leg 3: 1,2,5,6,10
Leg 4: 1,4,7,11
Turf Talk:
- Rail 3m
- Not my favourite track but the rail is in a good spot and we have nice weather all week.
- They usually fan in the straight and never race too tight on the big spaces of Eagle Farm.
- Highly competitive day and expecting a few big priced winners and possibly a huge quaddie.
Stats that matter:
- Ben Thompson is airborne. Striking at 30% for his last 50 runners and ROI +68.8%
- Jack Bruce is striking at 26% for his last 50 runners and a small profit on ROI +4.8%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Plain sort of race to start but looks to be limited chances and might be a chance for a bet.
I have liked the way (9) Think Like Paddy has been building into the prep. Ran 2nd at Grafton two back and then jock might have gone a touch early last start but the run was solid. Orman jumps on here which is a huge positive. Wide gate and 59kg the little queries.
(10) Barbray is no star but is another who has built into the prep. Decent runs in Sydney and then Waller brought him north where he bolted in at the sunny coast in a low bm62 race. This is harder but looks set to peak here.
(13) Thinking God has been solid at both runs for the new stable. In saying that, he’s had his chance to win and has one batted a bit. Suitable race here and Thompson jumps on.
Nearly impossible to follow (4) Amplify. She mixes form horribly but last start was decent on this track and only beaten 2L. Gets a good apprentice and is in the Maher yard.
Only issue with this race and trying to find where the speed is and that just puts some doubt in my mind.
Selections:
(10) Barbray
(9) Think Like Paddy
(13) Thinking Gold
(4) Amplify
Suggested Bet: Quinella 9,10,13
Race 2:
‘The Qld staying race’.
I was so far off the staying race last week it wasn’t funny. Doesn’t give me a heck of a lot of confidence going into another one of them.
I mean (1) Tapildoodledo is a non-winner and was able to be a dominant winner last start over 2200m here. Sat back and was going two to their one late. If he reproduces that, he can win again.
Gollan has (2) Chillaxing and he looked as though he was going to be the stayer on the rise over the winter. He has won a couple but can put in a flat run for seemingly no reason. As good of form as any though if you trust him.
I nearly always lean to the fresh horse on the scene from down south. That horse can be (3) Trapalanda. Has had three runs this prep and the latest was more than a pass mark at Randwick. Gets a good gate, maps well and 1.5kg off for a good apprentice.
(4) Lennox has had a much better prep this time in. Well supported at Doomben two back and narrowly missed there. As good as anything through the line (bar the winner) last time out and should be around the money again.
(6) Captain Maverick is a one pacer but exotics chance. (8) Benzino is in good, consistent form and (9) Farwest is suited by the big track and 2400m.
Selections:
(3) Trapalanda
(1) Tapildoodledo
(4) Lennox
(9) Farwest
(6) Captain Maverick
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
Got to be honest and say this is a lottery.
Jack Bruce stable is flying and (8) Everybody Rise has won four in a row since joining the stable. Sat outside leader last start and just ran away from them. Wasn’t a strong race but you can only beat what they throw in front of you. Stablemate (2) The Fixer is a better horse but very little racing in 12 months. Watch the market with them both.
(12) Mercian beat Braveheart two runs back and then runner up to Bonfire Spark. Decent form and this is his pet trip. With any luck from the gate, he can be in the finish.
(13) Manpower has always been a very fast horse but can be a little soft late. Was a nice winner at Grafton over their carnival and might get some confidence from that. This is harder but the good gate is a big positive.
Selections:
(12) Mercian
(8) Everybody Rise
(13) Manpower
(1) Invahir
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Speed galore here, blink and you’ll miss them.
The class is (1) Star Of Jamaica. He has to spot all of them at least 7.5kg. He is still good enough to win. Trials have been good, he’s been gelded and I’m interested if they ride quieter or stick to pushing forward.
The north Queenslander’s create some interest. (10) Erimar beat a handy one on debut and was well supported there. Returns a gelding, won a trial by nearly 8L an carries just 49kg which is a gift here.
(11) Tale Of Tass won on debut by 3.8L and was an odds-on quote. Has had 4 weeks between runs and she has joined the Gollan stable. Reckon she might be classy and the biggest chance to roll the topweight.
(4) Boonie Boom was a nice winner on debut. Thompson rides for Gollan but I feel the $2 is unders.
Selections:
(11) Tale Of Tass
(1) Star Of Jamaica
(4) Boonie Boom
(10) Erimar
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,11
Race 5:
Good speed here and wouldn’t be surprised to see a swooper win it late.
(11) Naturally Lit was a very good winner in an open 3yr old race at the sunny coast over 1000m two back. Last start was a long way off them, come the widest and just plain. Hoping they can sit closer from the good draw and just be patient to get the last shot at them.
(8) Mercian has been good the last couple of runs and gets a good gate and good apprentice. Better known over 1000m but gets every chance off a good map here.
(3) Stanislaus is no star but was a winner fresh and has a good 2nd up record. Like the apprentice on top and may land outside leader.
I reckon (5) Arctic Legend could be the best roughie. Record isn’t the best, I just feel speed on and fresh could be a good recipe to run well for the big grey.
(13) Neverenoughlego has won four on the trot and Thompson goes on. They have only been up north and this is harder. Still like the style of wins and can be competitive here.
Selections:
(11) Naturally Lit
(5) Arctic Legend
(13) Neverenoughlego
(8) Mercian
(3) Stanislaus
Suggested Bet: Win (11) Naturally Lit and smaller (5) Arctic Legend
Race 6:
Big field and not much would surprise.
I have liked the runs of (14) Wrigley Field at the GC since joining the new stable. I have been waiting for it to find the right race and just a shame about the gate here. Best L200m in both those runs and gets Thompson on top.
(16) Cool Music is no star but is a consistent type. From the good gate can hold a spot and just 49.5kg says she can be in the finish.
(2) Mean Approach has won both runs this prep and gets a high-class apprentice on claiming 1.5kg. Maybe better at 1200m but you can’t knock winning form.
Too many place chances to name but feel those mentioned above may be the main players.
Selections:
(14) Wrigley Field
(16) Cool Music
(2) Mean Approach
(20) Ready To ignite
(3) Larrikin Rogue
Suggested Bet: Something (14) Wrigley Field if $6+
Race 7:
Looked a two horse race a fortnight ago between (1) Livalittle and (6) Automne Tree. They ran the quinella and won’t be much between them again here.
A 3.5kg jump in the weights for (1) Livalittle off an exceptional win. The track was playing to swoopers but he was excellent. I kind of felt they would go to 1800m now, but another try at the mile may be ok.
(6) Automne Tree has been very well placed since coming to Qld. 2nd best L200m in his last three runs and he just travels beautifully in his runs. Maloney knows him well and will swing off him as long as possible here. Rock hard fit and maps wherever he wants to be.
(3) High Dandy comes through a good race and was brave on speed. Peaks 4th up here and gets Orman to ride. Little query is the jump from 54kg to 60kg. Will look the winner at some stage here.
(14) Hurricane Lu had no luck two back and then strong through the line last start. Good Senior Jock goes on and just 52.5kg.
(2) Viminele, (4) Just Flying, (8) Mirra Impact and (10) Golden Cross could all win without surprising in a another good race.
Selections:
(6) Automne Tree
(1) Livalittle
(3) High Dandy
(14) Hurricane Lu
(10) Golden Cross
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 1,6 // 1,3,6,14 // 1,3,4,6,10,14 ($24 for 100%)
Race 8:
Good race this one. Not a lot of speed and the main chances all get back a bit.
(5) Facundo will get a lot of love in the market. Didn’t get the clearest path fresh but showed a turn of foot and still too good for them. Loses apprentice and gets Jimmy Orman on top here. Has won 2 of 3 second up and draws decent.
(2) Cosmo Centaurus is a beaty fresh where he has won 3 from 4. Recent trial was good, he likes the track, Thompson rides and he will be strong late. Lots to like.
(1) Pre Eminence has been good the last couple over shorter trips. No issue with 1200m though and is tactically versatile to suit whatever the track is doing.
I’ll be buggered if I can catch (6) Ser Joh, but he’s been a beauty for Heathcote. Loves the track, loves the trip and the only query is unplaced in three second up runs.
(11) Fragile Love was huge late to get the cash last start. Gets back from the gate here but with just 50.5kg it is a big chance. Mares in form are hard to knock.
(3) Bossed Up can win, he’s just not one of mine.
Selections:
(5) Facundo
(2) Cosmo Centaurus
(10) Fragile Love
(1) Pre Eminence
Suggested Bets: No
Race 9:
M.Rodd is riding well and (1) Anemacore is the best horse in the race. In these open handicaps though having to carry 60kg each time is a killer. Rock solid again last start, well placed again here. Just the weight and spotting so many kg’s to the others dent’s the confidence just a touch.
Surely (4) Pereille is just a place chance and punters have had a gutful of win bets. Always running on into the money without winning. Stablemate (7) Warby looks to be going terrible but has a few things in his favour here. Likes this track, good ground and just 51.5kg is the biggest positive.
(11) Express Payment has had the best prep of his life. Has won two of his last four and runner up in the other two. Two starts this track/trip for a win and a placing. Hard to knock in this form.
I don’t trust any of the others enough to give them a push.
Selections:
(1).Anemacore
(11) Express Payment
(7) Warby
(4) Pereille
Suggested Bets: Win (1) Anemacore
