Yeigh or Neigh? Matt Welsh puts five Sandown favourites under the microscope

Everyone loves a winner, but there’s arguably more satisfaction in finding a favourite that’s too short and watching it get rolled.

And there’s a big difference between thinking a horse can’t win and thinking it’s a terrible bet at the price.

Saturday’s Sandown card throws up five favourites I have strong opinions on. Some I’m happy to launch into, others I wouldn’t back with stolen money.

So, are we saying Yeigh or Neigh?

Race 1: Ichnusa ($2.70)

🟢 YEIGH

I’ve been waiting for this bloke to get to 2400m, and Saturday looks his time to shine.

The speed should be genuine enough through (8) Fiorowngood and (11) Mr O’Reilly.

A number of these come through the 2000m race won by Yauson on Cup Day, but Ichnusa was clearly the horse to follow.

He was only getting warm over the final 200m and was powering through the line. Everything about that performance screamed give me further.

Now third-up, out to 2400m and with a lovely platform to build from, he looks beautifully placed.

I’ve always had plenty of time for this bloke and genuinely believe he’s capable of measuring up in better races.

Race 2: Karren ($3.00)

🔴 NEIGH

There's a bit of hype around Karren, and I can understand why. She's got ability and upside.

But $3? Not for me.

She missed the kick at Cranbourne but ended up getting into a good spot. Didn't quite see out the 1400m last start, so dropping back 100m is a positive.

She's going to have to work across, with a key rival likely to kick up underneath her. That could force her to spend a few petrol tickets early, and those tickets can become awfully expensive late.

Yes, she's progressive. Yes, she might simply be better than them.

But at $3, you're paying for what she might become rather than what she's achieved.

I'm happy to let her win without my money.

Race 7: Natural Fling ($4.00)

🟢 YEIGH

If you've put a line through Natural Fling after the Coolmore Stud Stakes, I reckon you're making a mistake.

I'm incredibly forgiving of that performance.

There was a screaming headwind up the Flemington straight on Derby Day, and horses exposed to it were up against the tide all afternoon.

Natural Fling was one of them.

She and Paradoxium were the two horses facing the breeze, and she absolutely belted him. Nothing that faced the breeze down the straight fired a shot across the meeting.

It was a much better performance than the bare result suggests.

Now she gets back around a bend, which I see as a significant positive. This race being on the inner Lakeside track is another tick.

She has the tactical speed to land on pace without doing a stack of work, and I suspect we'll see a much better version of her.

Race 9: Small Fry ($2.60)

🔴 NEIGH

I reckon there's every chance Kingswood jumps favourite, and he'd be the one I'd rather have my money on.

He's four weeks between runs, but with a potential Hong Kong trip on the horizon, I suspect he'll be ready to rock.

He's gone to another level this campaign, culminating in that outstanding Caulfield Cup victory. He's also tactically versatile, capable of leading or settling just behind the speed.

(5) Juja Kibo is absolutely flying. He's drawn wide and gone back at his past couple, but from barrier one he can settle much closer. He's the main danger to Kingswood.

Which brings us to Small Fry.

His excellent second to Melbourne Cup winner Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup is the obvious formline. There's every chance he'd have started favourite in the Melbourne Cup had he made the field.

But let's scratch beneath the surface.

The tempo at Geelong was put on for him. He was entitled to take ground off Point Of Law late, and he's far more exposed than the Melbourne Cup winner.

He also carried 54.5kg in a handicap at Geelong. Now he steps into weight-for-age company against established Group 1 performers.

It's worth remembering Omni Man, another flashing light from the Geelong Cup, was tailed off in the Champions Stakes.

There are positives. It's his second Australian start, Mark Zahra takes the ride and he's drawn for a lovely run.

He can absolutely win.

But $2.60? I can't get him anywhere near that price.

Race 10: Concord Connie ($1.70)

🔴 NEIGH

Concord Connie might blow them away, but $1.70 is a poisonous price to pay to find out.

Her Empire Rose run was good, but it wasn't a particularly strong edition. She also enjoyed the perfect run, covered up from the wind.

Saturday presents a different challenge.

She's drawn wide and looks likely to settle in the second half of the field.

And there hasn't been much between Concord Connie and (7) Terilee in their two meetings this campaign, yet there's an enormous discrepancy in their prices.

(3) Merrigold is going much better than her form suggests. She had no luck two starts ago, then found herself against the pattern last start.

I like her map, James McDonald taking over is another tick, and she should get her preferred firm ground.

I reckon she runs a massive race.

(12) Superfabulistic also impressed me at Flemington. She was heavily backed and completely dominated from the front. She's got a high cruising speed and looks capable of finding a comfortable position on speed again.

Both appeal as better betting propositions than taking $1.70 about Concord Connie.

Yeigh or Neigh? The final scorecard