Feels like spring is here. A Group 2 at Randwick and plenty of sun in the northeastern corners of Australia.
Starting in Sydney, the barrier versus run style data isn’t overly helpful. Randwick plays true. Same with Perth.
The Caulfield Heath data isn’t significant enough either.
But there are some combinations to consider in Brisbane and Adelaide.
I like Eagle Farm Back and Inside (A2E 1.14).
That should suit Barbray (R1), Naturally Lit (R5) and Anemacore (R9). I’m backing the latter.
Jockey data
Back to Sydney. The biggest influence on the market will be James McDonald, but the jockey data says he matches the market with an A2E of 0.99.
So do most of his competitors.
The only standout is Tim Clark across his last 100 runners.
The jockey data at Caulfield Heath is too thin, but I keep watching the developing career of Jabez Johnstone.
His career A2E is 1.13 and he’s beating the market by 39% across his last 100. Can imagine a couple of Group 1s and 2s over the spring for Ciaron Maher.
So we’re a little thin for direction in the jockey, trainer and barrier data this week, but the comprehensive Punting Form database has plenty of other tools.
Hopefully it helps identify a couple of winners below.
Randwick Race 1 – 1100m
Warming up the account with Bangkok Hottie. She won her last two starts, so I’m hoping the form continues after a short spell.
Quick benchmarks last start, trainer and jockey in form, and strong Punting Form ratings. Not getting carried away at $2.30, but betting.
Randwick Race 4 – 2400m
Another modest bet, this time Trapalanda ($6.50). The Archibald six-year-old historically performs best at start four or five in a preparation.
He owns the fastest peak benchmarks in the field and is on top with PF AI.
Randwick Race 7 – 1800m
Boniface ($3.60) has attracted early money but is still a roll off the favourite. Looks a classic case of JMac tax on Tazima, who has been firm at $2.30.
But Boniface, who ran second to the favourite on a Heavy 9 last start, should appreciate the drying conditions this week. Positive map and a great Late Speed edge.
Randwick Race 8 – 1200m
Dangerously taking on JMac again here, but Angel Capital ($2.80) looks short against a genuine field.
I’m with Ninja, who hasn’t budged from $4. The barrier trial last week was explosive and the speed map looks encouraging. Tommy Berry knows the horse and Michael Freedman will have his best spring yet.
Randwick Race 9 – 1200m
And I’m following Freedman again here with Mareth. The market says $5.50. Punting Form AI says $3.30. Late Speed edge, quick last start and conditions suit.
Caulfield Heath Race 2 – 1500m
The Celtics made a poor Jaylen Brown trade, but the last-start benchmarks for this bloke were elite: -10.4 and -5.8 over the final 600m.
Positive map from the back, strong ratings and loves a soft track.
Caulfield Heath Race 6 – 1200m
Getting greedy at the $1.70 about Custom. Will start shorter. Same as two weeks ago. Maher and JJ pair up with a talented mare here.
Caulfield Heath Race 9 – 1500m
Changing Colours is going to get hammered by punters too. Taking $2 now. -12.5 over the final 600m last start. Cheese and rice!
Positive map, experienced jockey and 1500m to round them up from the back fence.
Eagle Farm Race 4 – 1000m
The market has opened with Gollan and Boonie Boom ($2.80).
But I love the Munce team and Star Of Jamaica ($3.80), who I think should be favourite. Four lengths faster last start and was quick first-up last preparation.
Eagle Farm Race 9 – 1400m
Anemacore is flying for Shaun Dwyer this preparation.
-10.9 over the final 600m last start! Map, jockey, stable and ratings data all confirm why the early market has hammered the seven-year-old.
Morphettville Parks Race 6 – 1100m
With Deepfloat Diva for the Jollys.
Fastest last start, a soft track is a positive and she continues to run well deep into a preparation.
The map looks great too.
Belmont Park Race 7 – 1200m
The Gangemis are in outrageous form. They’re beating the market by 39% across their last 100 runners, and the record is just as impressive at Belmont Park.
Rokanori shouldn’t be $41.
But I’m backing Repossession with Brad Parnham. Outstanding final 600m last start in a similar Listed race, and should enjoy the extra 200m.
A few roughies
Caulfield Heath R4 – Palm Angel ($10)
Caulfield Heath R4 – Escarpa ($17)
Caulfield Heath R7 – Angland ($16)
Morphettville R7 – Lim’s Saltoro ($13)
