Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne is back with another edition of Take Us On, and this week he has three well-backed runners in his sights across Caulfield, Doomben and Rosehill.
As always, it isn’t necessarily about declaring that the favourites can’t win. It’s about price, and Beirne believes punters are being asked to take under the odds about Cosmic Crusader, Braveheart and Transcend.
Caulfield Race 7 – Cosmic Crusader
Cosmic Crusader was an impressive winner first-up and has understandably found plenty of admirers, but Beirne believes the jump in grade is significant.
“He was strong first-up, but it was much inferior opposition and he was suited at level weights,” Beirne said.
“He probably needs to improve around two lengths off that performance. He can do it, but it’s certainly not a given.”
Beirne concedes Cosmic Crusader’s personal best is good enough to justify his current quote, but even producing that level doesn’t necessarily put the race to bed.
“Even at his PB, there are multiple other winning chances. He’s not only got to run to his best, he’s relying on some of the others not reaching theirs.”
Ultimately, it comes back to price.
“He was $3.60 first-up in an easier race at level weights where he had a class edge. Now he’s up against proper weight for age horses at around $2.50. For me, it’s more a price angle than anything else.”
Bet Legends Special: Cosmic Crusader to run 1st or 2nd at $2.50
Doomben Race 7 – Braveheart
Braveheart faces a hot race at Doomben and Beirne believes the favourite will need to find another level to justify his position in the market.
“It’s a hot race on paper and he maps to be right in the dogfight early,” Beirne said.
The bigger issue is where that necessary improvement comes from this deep into his campaign.
“He’s 10th-up now and I think he needs a new peak to win. At this stage of a preparation, I’d say the probability of him producing that new peak is fairly low.”
That makes Braveheart another runner Bet Legends is happy to take on at his current quote.
Bet Legends Special: Braveheart to run 1st or 2nd at $2.90
Rosehill Race 5 – Transcend
Transcend rounds out Beirne’s trio, with his first-up performance doing little to convince the Bet Legends bookmaker that his current price is justified.
“He was okay first-up, but his first Australian run back in November last year remains his peak,” Beirne said.
“He hasn’t produced anything at that level since and I think he needs to find around three lengths of improvement here.”
Beirne expects the market to eventually come around to his way of thinking.
“I’d be surprised if the current price holds. I expect him to drift significantly.”
Bet Legends Special: Transcend to run 1st or 2nd at $3.40
For Beirne, all three runners are capable of winning. The question is whether their chances are as strong as the market currently suggests.
And at the prices on offer, Bet Legends is happy to open the bag and take them on.
