Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
Moderate 15- 20 km/h south-westerly and SSW winds. While the wind wasn’t strong, I do feel the wind direction rewarded those with tactical speed.
The track was officially a Slow 7 in race 1 and upgraded to a Slow 6 after race 2; however, the times consistently averaged out to a Dead 5. The final 600m times were much slower than the early sections though, particularly in the circle races.
It was a good day for leaders and on-pace horses, especially in the Chute races where 3 of the 4 leaders at the 600m mark won, and the other (Educated) ran 2nd. From the Circle races, 4 of the 5 winners came from well off the pace and down the middle of the track, but all leaders bar Amleto held on for a placing. Amleto simply went too hard and was the only leader to truly run into a headwind all meeting.
But while these numbers might suggest that on-pace horses were advantaged, plenty made up ground to win or place, leaving me feeling that the surface was very fair. I also felt that the track played very fairly from a lanes perspective – 8 of the 15 place-getters found the fence in run, yet 4 of the 5 winners were back and wide. In the Chute, only 4 of the 12 place-getters found the fence, yet 3 of those 4 won their races. All told, I’m calling it a very fair surface, with tactically capable horses duly rewarded – as they should be!
Race 1
LD-S-8: -0.5L | LD-8-4: -1.2L | LD-4-F: +1.9L | WNR-4-F: +3.7L | @WTS: 93.1 | @WFA: 93.8
Fundamental Nature was a terrific winner of the opening race, taking his record to three wins from five starts. He is still lightly raced, so it was no surprise to see him return with a new career peak.
Interestingly, he ran to the same rating under weight-for-age conditions as Shadhavar did later in the day in the Regal Roller Stakes. That speaks both to the strength of this Benchmark 74 and the weakness of the Regal Roller. Fundamental Nature’s time was also the second-fastest of the three 1100-metre races on the card, which included the Vain and Quezette Stakes, albeit both of those races were restricted to three-year-olds.
I expect the market to view this form favourably, and he can be followed with confidence in the coming weeks.
Educated, who started favourite, was below her best but was by no means disappointing. Jabez Johnstone elected to steer well clear of the inside lanes and raced wider than he perhaps needed to when they turned for home, prompting questions from some punters on social media. As an Educated backer, I wasn’t enamoured with the ride in the moment, but after giving it more thought, I concede that it would not have changed the result.
The stewards’ report read:
“When questioned as to whether or not he could have made more use of his mount and cross Fundamental Nature, which would have enabled his mount to race closer to the rail and avoid covering additional ground rounding the turn, he stated as his mount was resuming and he felt the tempo of the race was strong, he did not wish to make too much use of his mount to cross Fundamental Nature as this would have been detrimental to its performance. He added that as it was a straight run to the first turn, he then continued racing wider on the track until shifting in closer towards the rail near the 500m when commencing to turn. Stable representative Jack Turnbull confirmed the nature of the instructions and added that as the gelding had a tendency to overrace, they were satisfied with J. Johnstone’s decision not to urge his mount along in the early stages and therefore were comfortable with his ride.”
I don’t disagree with any of that, and I appreciate that stewards asked the question.
Educated also became warm in the parade ring and was on her toes, so the experience may ultimately do her good. There is no reason to view the run negatively.
Savoyard made an excellent return to racing, settling towards the rear after being restrained from a wide barrier before finishing in fast time. He finished second in the Future Stars Series Final over 1400 metres at his second start, so he is evidently going to be better suited over further and should improve with both experience and fitness.
Race 2
LD-S-8: +3.1L | LD-8-4: +4L | LD-4-F: -5.2L | WNR-4-F: 0L | @WTS: 90.5 | @WFA: 89.7
Race two was shaped by Amleto, who made it a searching 2000-metre contest. The best-positioned runner in the race, Taka Speed, was able to pick up the pieces as the race deteriorated quickly. This was his twelfth run of the preparation on Saturday and was fit enough to cope with the very fast pace.
Perhaps the trifecta paying more than $19,000 points to the overall strength of the form.
Federer ran very well from an impossible position and may have won had he drawn favourably. Shinn gave up too many lengths too readily, but Federer will be third-up next start and can be forecast to reach his peak.
Race 3
LD-S-8: -3.9L | LD-8-4: +5.6L | LD-4-F: -2.4L | WNR-4-F: -2.4L | @WTS: 90.1 | @WFA: 91
I’d describe race three as just another mares’ race. Recuperato was given an extremely favourable scenario in which to reproduce the level of form she was in when second in the Blue Sapphire Stakes, and that is precisely what she did.
This changes nothing for her. If she were to line up in this exact race in a fortnight, the result would have some bearing on her price, but very little. The market is not going to update their view of her because of this, and neither should we.
Butternut Princess is well on her way to returning to the figures she ran in the Mannerism, Sunline and Matron Stakes. A mile is her best distance.
Glasgow Lass may have needed another run before reaching her mark. She travelled into the race but found little once the sprint went on.
Third-up may be the time to find her.
Race 4
LD-S-8: -0.3L | LD-8-4: +5.6L | LD-4-F: -3.3L | WNR-4-F: -0.6L | @WTS: 93.8 | @WFA: 91.6
Ten Commandments was well backed and surged over the top of Home Rule, who improved nicely himself.
Home Rule led comfortably at an even speed through the first 600 metres before increasing the tempo, with the speed rising from 62.9km/h to 65.8km/h between the 1000–800 and 800–600-metre sections.
Ten Commandments was in the right position to capitalise and, with Duchess Zou caught three-wide without cover through the fastest section of the race, he went away to win nicely.
This is Ten Commandments’ level. Maher has done a terrific job with him, but I would be surprised if he were able to step up to better company and win.
Race 5: Vain Stakes
LD-S-8: -0.4L | LD-8-4: +1.1L | LD-4-F: -2.7L | WNR-4-F: -2.7L | @WTS: 89.7 | @WFA: 94.3
The Vain Stakes was preceded by heavy support for Closer To Free, who was backed as if unbeatable. He firmed from $2.80 on Saturday morning to start $2.30 on the exchange, but to no avail, with Hard Kick, essentially unwanted in the market, leading throughout and staving off the challengers in admittedly poor time.
The pace gave every runner the opportunity to run a good figure, but none of them did. In fairness, only two of the nine runners had raced more than three times, so they may improve with experience.
I’m quite worried about this group. The time was slow, they finished in a bunch and there were no unlucky runners finishing quickly.
I would be astounded if the Coolmore Stakes winner were hidden in this field.
Race 6: Quezette Stakes
LD-S-8: -0.1L | LD-8-4: -0.5L | LD-4-F: +2.7L | WNR-4-F: +2.7L | @WTS: 93.3 | @WFA: 98.2
The Quezette Stakes is a different story, however. Tony and Calvin McEvoy have a rocket on their hands in Natural Fling.
She and Damian Lane took up the lead, travelled at an even speed through the middle stages and then quickened decisively, with plenty left in reserve. This was clearly a new career peak, and she has evidently improved with age.
Six furlongs should pose no issue. She begins and settles well and is as strong as anything over the final 400 metres.
She is now favourite for the Coolmore Stakes, which seems like an overreaction, though something has to head the market. Better fillies and colts will return and run similarly well, and there is no doubt Natural Fling will need to improve again if she is to win the feature three-year-old sprint in the spring. Of course, she is capable of doing so.
Terrific filly, she’s extremely exciting, but I suppose my opinion of her entirely depends on everyone else’s. Price is everything, and if the common consensus is to think too highly of her, I will undoubtedly leave her alone. It would be surprising if she were backable next start after this.
Portinari was brilliant from an awful position. If she can avoid some of the better fillies, she will dominate a 1200-metre race in the coming weeks.
Race 7: P.B. Lawrence Stakes
LD-S-8: -5.4L | LD-8-4: 0L | LD-4-F: +2.2L | WNR-4-F: +6.8L | @WTS: 101.7 | @WFA: 101.7
The Western Australian raider Cosmic Crusader dominated the P.B. Lawrence Stakes.
He made a terrific improvement from the Bletchingly Stakes and added substance to his claims ahead of the Memsie Stakes in 14 days’ time.
Can he beat Jimmysstar, Angel Capital and the others all at once? Perhaps, but I still think the market will fancy him more than I do.
My view has not changed: he is as good as I expected him to be. In fact, 101.7 was the exact figure I forecast him to run on Saturday. On Memsie Day, however, I expect the winner to run beyond 103. Can Cosmic Crusader reach that level? Yeah, maybe.
Interestingly, the market expected him to run to 102.9, which is a Memsie-winning figure. His sectionals suggest that 103 isn’t unrealistic either.
The first quarter of a mile was slow before the tempo began to build, particularly from the 800-metre mark. Cosmic Crusader strengthened as the race developed and won like a very good horse. He will have an advantage over those first-up in the Memsie, and that may be how he beats them if he is to do so.
He was excellent, but he did not do anything we hadn’t expected. More than anything, he simply gave confirmation that he is as good in the east as he was in the west. He will need to improve again to beat Sheza Alibi and the other leading contenders, and he will also want to settle in front of Moody’s super-filly. Good luck beating her for speed.
Private Eye and Evaporate were excellent, as always. They are genuine Group 2 horses who sit just behind the very best, but always give a good account of themselves.
Feroce was not quite as good, but still ran well. He will improve, and his campaign will be centred around the Caulfield handicaps. The Crystal Mile may be the perfect race in which to culminate his preparation.
Wootton Verni will win something, although I’m not sure what. The Caulfield Cup may be the race for which he is being prepared, but he could be weighted out of it.
Race 8: Regal Roller Stakes
LD-S-8: -1L | LD-8-4: +2.3L | LD-4-F: -2.3L | WNR-4-F: -2.3L | @WTS: 95.6 | @WFA: 93.8
The Regal Roller Stakes is poor form and can be discarded in any race of substance.
Race 9
LD-S-8: -2.9L | LD-8-4: +2.7L | LD-4-F: -1L | WNR-4-F: +3.5L | @WTS: 95.4 | @WFA: 90.9
The rating may not fully reflect how good Darkbonee was on Saturday.
He gave the leaders a head start and overhauled them to win easily, running five and a half lengths faster than all but Berkeley Square over the final 800 metres.
It was utterly dominant. Nor was the pace particularly gruelling; the on-speed runners were advantaged rather than disadvantaged. Darkbonee carried seven kilograms less than Light Infantry Man, nine less than Just Folk and six less than Detonator Jack, which should be acknowledged, but he still won as though he were a horse capable of progressing rapidly into Group-class company.
I’ve heard the Caulfield Cup mentioned as a viable option, and that seems a little optimistic. The Coongy Cup or Naturalism Stakes, however, look like perfect options for him.
