Punting Form Data Drop: Mudlarks, map edges and Epsom value

Flemington data

Melbourne is back to being Melbourne: a mud fight.

Rail out 9m, plenty of rain, and a strong southerly pushing them around the home turn.

With the live rail data below, we can see some inconsistent pockets to be aware of:

• The worst is Middle + Forward (0.76)
• Middle + Midfield, right behind, is the sweet spot (A2E 1.16).

The trainer data hypes up Henry Dwyer, Nick Ryan and Grahame Begg. I knew the latter crushed Caulfield, but I didn’t realise the Begg stable put these numbers up at Flemington too. Respecting Ciaron Maher too.

On the jockeys, Craig Williams has ridden 189 Flemington winners, more than anyone else on the card, and he’s still beating the market there (1.10). Good news for Sir Delius.

Damian Lane, Mark Zahra and Ben Melham are all in form at 1.30 or better over their last 100 rides. Mick Dee is the quiet achiever at 1.26 at Flemington.

Randwick data

Randwick looks fair, and there’s a fat and simple edge: horses that push Forward from gates 1 to 3 beat the market by 18%.

Conversely, horses that push forward from wide gates (8+) are a disaster at 0.74 and -31.7% POT.

It takes some of the sting out of barrier one for Autumn Boy. Lastly, horses settling back from the inside still beat the market at 1.12.

Bjorn Baker is the trainer to follow, as he often is. He has 22 winners from his last 100 runners and is beating the market by 15%.

Kalgoorlie data

Kalgoorlie is back as the metro venue in the West.

The edge is horses that push forward from middle gates (4 to 7), at 1.18. Avoid horses that settle back from wide gates: 0.65 and -40% POT.

Finally, Lucy Fiore has a 19.3% strike rate from 684 rides at Kalgoorlie, which is elite. She rides Immortal Bliss in Race 7. Laqdar Ramoly (1.37) and Natika Riordan (1.36) both beat the market here too.

There’s some good insights for Eagle Farm and Murray Bridge too, but this email would be 15 scrolls on the thumb. Subscribers obviously get all the gold.

Now the bets

Flemington Race 6 – 1100m

With Snoop, Dre and Nate in Race 6.

The Next Episode ($3.50) has been backed in and is built for the slop. Purely a condition play here and betting with confidence, despite the exceptional fav.

Flemington Race 8 – 2000m

The database actually isn’t super supportive of this bet, but I’d already made my mind up: Sir Delius ($2.80).

Bott plus Waterhouse, and Craig Williams owns Flemington. He handles the wet too.

Backing Light Infantry Man ($34) for a good result too. Big overs.

Flemington Race 9 – 1200m

I wanted to back Skybird ($3.80) here, but the market has squeezed all the juice out.

Hedge is better value at $7. Stable flying and perfect distance according to the database; huge benchmarks four starts ago.

Randwick Race 5 – 1600m

Betting with confidence on Unleeshing ($2). We get the Bjorn Baker A2E in our favour here, plus a 12% map edge. Drop in weights and, if she gets through the traffic, as they normally do, she brains them.

Randwick Race 6 – 1600m

I’m with the Hottie again. She took care of us last start and looks even better value here at $3.50.

PF AI is just as strong, stable flying and maps with an edge.

Randwick Race 8 – 1600m

Backing two Godolphin runners in the Epsom: Tom Kitten and Attica.

Both impressed last start.

The market is steaming into Attica ($6). Blinkers have him ready and Joe Pride knows how to win a Randwick mile. So I’m invested there.

But Tom Kitten is even bigger value at $31 when PF AI makes them 9-1. Benchmarks and resume support.

Randwick Race 9 – 1200m

$1.70 looks too short for Tempted second-up.

Plaintiff is the value play; $26 into $23. Has a real turn of foot and was good first-up. PF AI super short.

Eagle Farm Race 6 – 1400m

With Scripted ($2.30) > Komodo Dragon ($2.60).

Stable in form, better map and ran electric fourth-up last prep.

Eagle Farm Race 10 – 1200m

Ten Deep: Two good trials, Angela gives confidence and maps positively on pace.

Smacked in the market, but $5 still looks overs for the Gollan sprinter.

Murray Bridge Race 3 – 1100m

Forgiving Ramasis last start and following the PF AI ratings. $2.98 vs $3.30.

Still ran the quickest last-start benchmark in this field.

Kalgoorlie Race 7 – 1200m

Bookies keep turning in Immortal Bliss ($2), but I’m still backing.

Following that Lucy Fiore form at the top of the email; she’s been on for two preps and the last barrier trial was outstanding. One of the best favourites of the day.

Palmerbet odds correct at time of publishing.