Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
- Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
- Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played
Dave Pfundt’s assessment of how the track played:
I’m calling it a moderate fence advantage (in-run), especially in races at 1400 metres and under, where a light southerly wind was mostly at their backs. The straight itself seemed even enough. Quite a few horses that won or placed on the fence started at bigger odds and ran new peaks or outstripped expectations.
It did feel like the Caulfield of old. The only horses that genuinely couldn’t win were those who got back and very wide in races where the leader railed and kicked. I’m certainly not suggesting an unfair surface was dished up, the track raced well, but there was an obvious bias in the results, with place-getters skewed towards those that raced on the fence.
Winds were around 15km/h SSW, not strong, but this is how Caulfield (dry) plays with a southerly-type wind. Track speeds were recorded as Dead 5 (5.2). Officially a Slow 7, upgraded to a 6 after Race 4.
The meeting comprised three chute races, four 1400-metre races and three races between 1700 and 2000 metres. Across the meeting overall, 18 of 30 place-getters were on the fence in-run. Breaking the meeting into distance groups gave more clarity:
The chute races saw 8 of 9 place-getters find the rails in-run, Unit Five being the only exception.
The 1400-metre races were all won by leaders or box-seat runners, and 8 of 12 place-getters found the fence in-run.
The longer races were all won by horses either coming down the middle or through the pack off the fence. Only 2 of 9 place-getters were on the fence, but they were Just Folk, who led at +10 lengths early at a fast tempo, and Litzdeel, who enjoyed a box seat on a strong speed.
For those two horses to hold down solid placings was the final piece of data I needed to stamp it a fence-ish day.
Memsie Stakes Day lived up to the billing and set the table for the spring carnival ahead.
Race 1
LD-S-8: 0L | LD-8-4: -0.9L | LD-4-F: -1.5L | WNR-4-F: +0.2L | @WTS: 87.4 | @WFA: 86.3
Although it was a stellar day of racing, it began a little slowly, as this seven-furlong race for mares left something to be desired.
Stealth Of Night and Davida, the favourite and second favourite, eventually took the lead, leaving Stage ‘N’ Screen and the eventual winner, Puglia, with an excellent trail in third and fourth.
Once Stage ‘N’ Screen began to fade at the top of the straight, Craig Williams veered Puglia to the right and claimed the leaders in the concluding 100 metres.
Butternut Princess, who had been plunged by punters, raced three pairs back on the rail behind Puglia and was never granted clear running room. A tragedy for the many punters who had projected her to return to her best form third-up.
Stealth Of Night was given 49 days between runs, for reasons I’m not certain of, and perhaps may have needed the run. I still have it in my mind that we have not seen the best of her.
Davida was unable to repeat her excellent form of last start, finishing third. There is no excuse for her, and I do not know if she is capable of improving further this campaign. The market still believes there is another level in her, so perhaps she can reach it next preparation.
This race has not rated well and must be treated with caution, but who is to say this group of mares will not race each other next start?
They are, however, vulnerable to a progressive mare rising through the grades.
Race 2
LD-S-8: +1.2L | LD-8-4: 0L | LD-4-F: -3.3L | WNR-4-F: +2.8L | @WTS: 91.4 | @WFA: 89.5
Race two changed complexion significantly, in more ways than one. The pace was very fast to the 1200-metre mark, with Station One and Amleto setting a searching speed, before slowing quite drastically between the 1000 and 600-metre marks. This allowed the horses at the rear to improve their positioning without necessarily having to quicken at all.
There was essentially a reversal: the first six at the 1200-metre mark filled the last six placings at the finish, and the horse who settled last, Politely Dun, won the race.
Politely Dun made his return at Flemington over seven furlongs last start and was terrific, finishing fourth over a distance well short of his best. The inside lanes were an advantage that day, but even so, he was excellent. The reason he does not win more often is that he is devoid of early speed and reliant on pace. While he is in career-best form this campaign, I would be cautious of backing him if the market holds him in high regard next start.
That said, if there were ever a time to find him, it may be on rain-affected ground; he seemingly performs better when the track is not fast, which makes sense.
Jenni Multabella was again given an impossible task, racing four wide and making a looping run to finish second. She was three-wide last start, too. If she can be given a ride where she is not covering ground and can race in a prominent position next start, she will be highly appealing again.
Race 3
LD-S-8: +2.6L | LD-8-4: +0.8L | LD-4-F: -0.6L | WNR-4-F: +1.9L | @WTS: 97.5 | @WFA: 99.5
Saint George is certainly a more put-together racehorse in recent times. He had been well thought of, but had not translated it into wins of significance. He is far more reliable these days, races tractably, and has now run to a new peak of 99.5. He is genuinely a chance in a Caulfield Cup if he can translate his form to a mile and a half.
The one reservation I have is that his stride suggests ten furlongs is his optimal distance, and in fairness, he has been best over this trip rather than further. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule, and horses can still win races over their unpreferred distance, but in a Caulfield Cup, it might be a concern.
Litzdeel is racing in the form of her life. She ran to her peak on Saturday, with every indication that she will improve again over further next start. The Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2600 metres is the race absolutely made for her. She won the 2800-metre race on Cup Day comprehensively last year, so she will either run in the Queen Elizabeth or the Melbourne Cup this year.
Without suggesting that she will win a Melbourne Cup, she will finish in the first half of the field and will be among the favorites for the Queen Elizabeth, so her connections will have a difficult decision to make. She is a terrific staying mare and, of course, the half-sister to 2019 Cup winner Vow And Declare.
Darkbonee was heavily supported as favourite, punters jumped out of trees to back him. He raced ungenerously and was generally not given a terrific ride by Jamie Melham. Plans to win the Caulfield Cup have taken a hit, and perhaps they should shelve that idea for now, which I think is the right thing to do. The Coongy is his race if he can reset after a poor run.
Race 4
LD-S-8: +0.5L | LD-8-4: +4.3L | LD-4-F: -3L | WNR-4-F: -3L | @WTS: 94.9 | @WFA: 94.5
You could have mistaken Dakotah Keane for Blake Shinn for her ride aboard Home Rule, who hit his mark third-up over 1400 metres at his preferred course, Caulfield. The early pace was strong, then slowed marginally once the pair found the front. She poured the pressure on again through the 800 to the 400 metres, and then the race was over.
The chasers were so strung out that if they were to win, they would have to make an unrealistic sustained run.
This is essentially Home Rule’s peak, so there is no improving from it. He is as tough as they come, but he is nine, so all he can do is hold his form. He has a terrific racing pattern, which will always help.
Race 5
LD-S-8: -1.9L | LD-8-4: +4.7L | LD-4-F: -2.4L | WNR-4-F: +0.4L | @WTS: 94.7 | @WFA: 94.5
The inaugural Courtza Stakes, formerly the Croquette, was won by Custom, who was much the best, winning by a length and three-quarters.
Tom Dabernig’s Shadhavar was plunged into $2.20 on the exchange, with punters expecting her to reach a new career peak, which in my view was unrealistic. That is easy to say now, of course, but she was sent away much too short. My understanding of the push was that she was going to lead, had race fitness, and plenty of the others were resuming with an eye to races over further.
Custom, the eventual winner, had been beaten quite badly the start prior, but before that was a dominant winner at this course and distance. This was Shadhavar’s chance to win a race like this, and she may not have such an opportunity again.
Custom is a really nice horse and can continue to run well in this grade for mares. There might still be improvement in her; this was such an easy win.
Salty Pearl made a sufficient return and is on track for races over a mile in the coming months.
Photograph was first-up and made an excellent return, finishing the fastest of any runner in the race. There is a race in her this campaign, especially because she can drop back in grade.
Race 6
LD-S-8: +0.3L | LD-8-4: +0.6L | LD-4-F: -0.6L | WNR-4-F: +0.9L | @WTS: 100.6 | @WFA: 100.2
Oliveanotherday confirmed what many thought, winning as if one of Australia’s premier sprinters. He might not be there quite yet, but he is certainly on his way. Of course, there is a race to say the most egregiously outrageous statement about a progressive horse, with a few labelling him the best sprinter in the land. All of that is fun, I get it, but he was not even the sprinting performance of the day. Just an hour later, Guest House broke the Rosehill 1100-metre track record and improved on his Slipper-winning number first-up.
The Manikato is his for the taking, and based on Saturday he will be favourite, and a very good one at that. He will only be better over six furlongs and will improve into his campaign. He is good enough to run in The Everest; will they run him in it? Maybe not. Tom Dabernig is a very measured trainer and may elect to wait a year, which is probably the right decision. The Champions Sprint is a much better option and will not have Ka Ying Rising in it, which helps.
Bridal Waltz ran to a respectable mark first-up and will improve for having the run. Perhaps she will continue on to the Manikato and be competitive in that, although unless he underperforms, it is unlikely that she turns the tables on the winner.
War Machine is not as good as he was and maybe is in need of further than this now. I remember backing him in a Cranbourne Class 1 over 1300 metres a long time ago and thought at the time that he would almost certainly need a mile to reach his best. Of course, that was wrong, but the truth might lie in the middle. He is not a sprinter at this stage and will need at least seven furlongs to be winning again at this level. He is rated highly, though, so he might prove difficult to place for his connections. I would love to see him race over a mile at some stage.
Race 7
LD-S-8: -0.2L | LD-8-4: -2L | LD-4-F: -1.1L | WNR-4-F: +0.6L | @WTS: 86.8 | @WFA: 91.6
American Eagle won the McNeil, and it was very much style over substance. Historically, it does not measure up well. In recent years, Tycoon Star ran 97.8, Growing Empire ran 99.5 and Veight ran 98.9, so it does not look great.
American Eagle is very much a miler, so anything he can do over six furlongs is a bonus. He will have to improve to win the Caulfield Guineas, but he has won a McNeil Stakes at start two and gives the impression that he is very good. He is second favourite to win the Guineas, so he would need to win the Prelude very well to justify that price.
The pace was even and gave every runner the opportunity to run a good overall time. They did not. The only runner I would give thought to in anything of substance in future is the winner, only because he will be better over further.
Unit Five made the race interesting and made a good return, but I would be trepidatious of backing him in a similar grade next start.
Race 8
LD-S-8: -1L | LD-8-4: -1.4L | LD-4-F: +1.5L | WNR-4-F: +1.5L | @WTS: 104.1 | @WFA: 104.4
Billed and bet as if it were a highly competitive race, stacked with nine Group 1 winners, the Memsie quickly turned into a procession.
Beiwacht was afforded an uncontested lead, which he gained through a quick early quarter-mile, but Nash then slowed the pace fractionally, allowing the star colt a very slow 1000 to 600 metres, where he then quickened the speed. From that point, he very much maintained his speed rather than won with a turn of foot. That is his forte, though.
This is a little better than the figure he ran to win the All Aged Stakes and a little worse than what he ran to win the Golden Rose. He is unbeaten over seven furlongs and has now run 105.3, 104.1 and 104.4. He is so reliable, and if he can translate his form to 1500 metres, he is the only locally trained danger to Sheza Alibi in the Golden Eagle.
If he is afforded an easy lead again, the pace is slow and Sheza Alibi is ridden in the second half of the field, he can beat her, such is the advantage of racing on pace.
Mr Brightside is a champion. There is nothing he cannot do. He will not reach the heights of previous preparations this campaign, I do not think, but he is so reliable that he will run well in everything.
Cosmic Crusader was terribly ridden by William Pike. He was backed off the boards, with many under the impression that they would roll forward, which he has done previously, obviously in lesser grade, which matters, but at the very least give it a try. He should run in the Underwood next; he cannot win the Makybe Diva, certainly not with Sheza Alibi there over a mile on an expansive track like Flemington.
Birdman was terrific and is a genuine chance to win the Cox Plate, especially if the pace is slow. Sir Delius won the Queen Elizabeth so well because the pace was so fast, and he stayed the strongest. He was blown off the park by Aeliana in a slowly run Ranvet. It is not a foregone conclusion that he just wins the Cox Plate, because he is no certainty of reproducing his Queen Elizabeth figure if he is asked to quicken rather than stay.
Birdman is best when the pace is slow. He has an outstanding turn of foot and returned in excellent order first-up.
Jimmysstar is not as good as he was, and Angel Capital is Angel Capital.
Race 9
LD-S-8: +8.8L | LD-8-4: +1.4L | LD-4-F: -6.6L | WNR-4-F: -2.9L | @WTS: 98.4 | @WFA: 99.9
As is typical for the Heatherlie Stakes, the pace was frantic, as the horses who had raced through winter did their best to beat the resuming stayers for fitness.
The architects of the pace were Blake Shinn and Just Folk, who led at a fast pace up until the 1200 metres and then made a very conscious decision to rapidly increase the speed between then and the 600 metres. It almost worked, too, with only the other Gavin Bedggood-trained runner able to run him down in the final furlong.
This is a new best for Kingswood in Australia. Perhaps he was as good to win his Group 1 in New Zealand, but I do not have the figures for that. The logical progression for him is the Underwood, the Might And Power and then into the Caulfield Cup on the back-up. Based on this, he will be competitive in everything, and perhaps his best chance to win a Group 1 in Australia is the Might And Power third-up. He ran to 99.9 on Saturday, and Globe won it last year with 100.2. It is a race that can often be lost in the calendar, and if it is weak again this year, he can win it.
The heavily backed favourite was Yellow Jersey, who had run to 118 on the TimeForm scale prior to arriving in Australia, which, once translated to the FormKing scale, is close to 101, or thereabouts anyway. 101 is the number that the market forecast him running to on Saturday, which is interesting. He could not cope with the pace and was well beaten. The plan with him was to run him in the Cox Plate, but he must be rerouted to the Caulfield Cup. He has either not acclimatised or needs more racing and further than this. Based on the strength of the confidence of the market, I am inclined to be forgiving of him and give him another chance if the opportunity presents itself. This was not an easy race to resume in, after all.
Zahraan ran to a new peak in Australia and did it with the indication that there is plenty more to come from him. He made a sustained move from the 1200-metre mark to get as close as he did from an unwinnable position. I made him my bet of the day second-up last campaign, where he was backed off the boards to win a BM100. He has already eclipsed that level and looks as if he is going to go on with it now in Australia. After all, he did start $6.50 behind Delacroix and Anmaat in an Irish Champion Stakes before leaving for Australia. He might never reach the level the Irish punters forecast him to in that, but he will not need to if he has beaten the handicapper in a Caulfield Cup.
Zakouma ran into some traffic on the turn and finished the race off well and is on track for his Melbourne Cup tilt.
Race 10
LD-S-8: -10L | LD-8-4: +2.3L | LD-4-F: +1.4L | WNR-4-F: +1.4L | @WTS: 97 | @WFA: 94.8
The concluding race on an excellent day was perplexing from a pace perspective. What were the jockeys off the speed doing, allowing the well-supported $2.60 favourite to get away with a pace shy of ten lengths slow to the 600 metres, let alone Fancify, the eventual winner?
For the most part, the riding and paces on Saturday were extraordinarily good. It is scary how reliable these jockeys are at getting the pace right. This time, not so much, however. Fancify, when left alone over 1400 metres, can do this, and she hit her mark on Saturday.
Sass Appeal was terrible, and her hopes of winning a Group 1 this campaign are surely void. I had my worries when her last 600 metres was the worst of six first-up, but admitted that she was not asked for an effort up until the 400 metres. She is obviously very good, but I wonder if she is no better than she was at three. She can bounce back, of course, and perhaps she was in need of the run because of how slow the pace was first-up.
Storm Leopard is on track for something, no idea what. Perhaps a Ballarat Cup. The Naturalism will come up a little quick for him, as he was only first-up. The Coongy might be suitable too. Now I think about it, the Ballarat Cup is a terrific race for him.
