The first dual Group 1 meeting of the spring arrives this Saturday, as punters are treated to enthralling editions of the Underwood and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes respectively.
There is much to discuss in either event; both are highly difficult to assess and will cause an influx of inspired wagering. Bring it on!
The Underwood
The Underwood is very much Cosmic Crusader’s big chance at capturing a Group 1 in the East. He is fourth-up and best placed to reach the upper echelon of his capabilities. Though the same could have been said last start, he was not given any chance to act on it. Pike will be inspired to get this one right; it will mean more than most if he were to win this. He has been very vocal throughout the week, voicing his disapproval of racing pundits sharing their view of his objectively terrible ride. Deep down, he knows he got it wrong, and there is no doubt that he will do everything in his power to have Cosmic Crusader pass the line first in the Underwood.
What is most worrying is that many of his opposition last start, and some he meets here, were first-up in the Memsie. Now they have had a race to run their rust off and meet him over a more preferable distance. Danger signs for Cosmic Crusader, who may need to run to a new peak on Saturday in order to win.
Linderman is the runner that I have marked favourite, but not necessarily a bet. It has obviously been well established that Linderman will lead, and without a tremendous amount of pressure in the race. He led and won the Chelmsford last start, which was devoid of pace too. Perhaps Kingswood will apply some pressure, and it might not be so slowly run, but he will have positional advantage over this field, and he is highly consistent and a terrific chance to win if he runs his number. I make him $2.90, which is his current price.
The runner that I am most likely to back is Birdman, who might not be ready yet, but I have a very large opinion of him and am convinced that he is a prominent player in the Cox Plate next month. He is constantly spiralling upwards, and there is no evidence that he is coming to a halt. I make him $4.20 (ish).
I believe Linderman will start favourite, but he is the right price now, unfortunately.
The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes
In a stellar edition of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, it is Angel Capital that rears his head at me, and how can I not?
He is third-up at his preferred distance range, on what will be a fast track at Caulfield. He was a certainty beaten last year, a certainty beaten again in the All Aged, but you have heard this before. There were no excuses last start; he was awful. But for perhaps the last time, and it probably won’t be, let’s be honest, I make him a very slight favourite over Lady Shenandoah, who is far more reliable than him. She is so consistent; she runs the same number at every start, but Angel Capital is more than capable of toppling that figure, even if he is terribly inconsistent and a complete headcase. He must be a bet again, and I am acutely aware of what I am walking into, which is uncomfortable, but comforting all the same.
Race 10 – The best of the day
The best bet of the day is Savoyard, who has accomplished plenty across three starts and is ideally placed to continue his rise through the grades. He was asked to do too much first-up over 1100 metres, finishing strongly, and has jumped out well between runs. In my view, he should be favourite. He can be slow to begin, but his draw may enable him to settle a pair or two closer than anticipated. The pace will be strong, ensuring he gets his opportunity. I make him a $4.00 chance.
