Punting Form Data Drop: Data points to value on a huge Saturday

Cracking weather again this weekend. Can’t believe how often I’m saying that about Melbourne. And even better in Sydney.

Good tracks, great conditions. There’s some wind about at Caulfield which could encourage jockeys to hunt for cover in the slipstream.

Track intel

The rail is out 7m at Caulfield, but the data suggests it plays true, which is not what I expected.

Sydney is also consistent when the rail is out 6m at Randwick.

Adelaide looks more erratic, and interesting. Inside + Forward is a great combination on the Morphettville Parks circuit.

Key stats @ Caulfield

Ciaron Maher’s stable has had the most winners at Caulfield and is on a heater recently, with an A2E of 1.19 over its last 100 runners.

Grahame Begg, Nick Ryan and Gavin Bedggood are all also going well at the Heath.

Gun jockey Ethan Brown is in great form at the moment and is a jockey to follow on Saturday.

Key stats @ Randwick

At Randwick, JMac chops out, while Nash wins well and Molly Bourke beats the market.

Bjorn Baker, Joe Pride and John Thompson are the winning stables to note.

Now, to the bets.

Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m

Punters can easily get confused here. There’s mail and money for Portinari and Profligate, with both around $4.20.

I’m with the former, not the latter.

Portinari was nearly a length faster last start and ranks No.1 on PF AI. He also has two other very strong last 600m benchmarks on the resume, while Danny O’Brien is beating the market by 36% with his last 100 runners.

Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m

Ethan Brown and Wolf Gap will keep my staking in check here, but I’m backing the Kiwi import, Blind Raise ($2.50).

The three-year-old gelding has been terrific, winning three of four starts, and I loved his first-up win at Sandown. He’s drawn wide again, but the map looks positive and completely in his control. He dominates the Punting Form database, as $2.50 horses should.

Caulfield Race 7 – 1800m

I can talk myself into Lindermann, and just when I’m about to bet, Cosmic Crusader.

One controls the tempo, the other has more raw speed.

But the only bet I’ve had so far is Kingswood. He’s been $20 into $16 and ran like the Group 1 winner he is last start, producing a -11.2 over 1700m at Caulfield three weeks ago. Gavin Bedggood is flying too.

Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m

The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes is even harder than the Underwood. I can make a case for the first half of the field, but I’ll try to pick only two.

Sabaj is the best value at $19. He shouldn’t be that price given his All-Star Mile form from the autumn.

Evaporate at $8.50 is also a bet. His best is exceptional and there’s no reason he can’t reproduce that tomorrow despite the wide gate.

Randwick Race 3 – 1600m

Declichy Boulevard ($3.10) is one of those Waller/JMac shorties that the market loves, and he could still be overs.

He leads the Top 4 Performers Tally, has a PF Score of 96, possesses the fastest turn of foot and should get every chance from the GOAT.

Randwick Race 6 – 2000m

My Gai and Adrian loyalty was expensive last week with Sir Delius, but we stick with the winning stable and inherit the confidence of Tim Clark.

I’m backing The Euphrates in the Group 2 Kingston Town Stakes over 2000m. He’s had six barrier trials since moving to Australia and will be better for his first run two weeks ago. The extra distance suits. He just needs to find a good spot from gate nine.

Randwick Race 7 – 1400m

This looks a genuine three-way contest at Randwick.

Chili Girl ($3.60) has treated me well and draws well again, but her own camp has flagged concerns about her racing too keenly at this trip.

Bangkok Hottie gets the vote from me. She ran the race of the meeting last start and I think the $5 will shorten.

She lights up the PF database, featuring on just about every rating and benchmark you want to see.

Randwick Race 9 – 1100m

Headwall’s last-start benchmarks are insane. Can you be gross overs at $3.40 against Group winners? I think so.

Stable flying, jockey flying, horse flying.

Randwick Race 10 – 1100m

Keen on Sylph here. I love Freedman + Lloyd. She ran enormous first-up last prep, so I’m taking the $7.

Gold Coast Race 7 – 1400m

No spoil on Grand Impact, but a -8.0 last start in Sydney should be too good for the Goldy.

The toppy claims 1.5kg, leads PF AI and has produced the fastest peak run in the field.

Morphettville Parks Race 5 – 1956m

It’s been a long prep for Cradle Of Jazz, but she just keeps getting better.

The stable and jockey win well, while the five-year-old mare ranks No.1 for PF Score and several other PF ratings. I missed the early market move and I’m hoping we can get better than $3.30 tomorrow. But I doubt it.

Morphettville Parks Race 9 – 1400m

Nicish ($3.10) has also been hit by the market and is an even better bet.

She was 5+ lengths faster than the field last start and her best is better than theirs. Jordyn Weatherley can ride too. She claims 3kg and beats the market by 30%+.

Belmont Park Race 1 – 1000m

I’m falling into another favourite in Perth Race 1. Hopefully Dawn Dancer ($2) performs better than Boy Crush ($1.85) did last week.

If we count barrier trials this prep, he has won six from seven. He was 8+ lengths faster than the field last start, so he should be giving them the business again.

Summary of best bets:

Roughies

A couple at odds to finish:

• Caulfield R8 – Campaldino ($15)
• Gold Coast R1 – Madame Cody ($13)
• Morphettville Parks R4 – Up The Den ($8.50)
• Morphettville Parks R8 – Stolen Kiss ($23)