Rosehill rewards those pushing forward
Rosehill is the main focus on Saturday and the Punting Form data points to a track where being positive could again prove important.
With the rail in the True position on a Good 4, there has historically been an 8% edge to horses pushing forward from barriers 1-7.
That is backed up by the lane data, with Lane 1 at the 400m producing a 37% edge.
There are also some interesting stable trends at Rosehill. Chris Waller has had nearly 400 more winners at the track than any other stable, but when it comes to beating market expectations, Waterhouse and Bott, Joe Pride, Matthew Dunn, Matthew Dale and Michael Freedman are among the names that stand out.
The jockey numbers are equally interesting. James McDonald has beaten already lofty market expectations by 16%, while Zac Lloyd and Reece Jones also boast positive records against the market.
Caulfield presents a completely different puzzle
Punters face a very different challenge at Caulfield on Sunday.
The rail is out 13 metres and the forecast has 15-20mm of rain arriving on Saturday, meaning conditions could change considerably before the first race.
It is the type of meeting where historical data around track conditions, settling positions and individual horse performances can become particularly valuable.
Murray Bridge favours the swoopers
Murray Bridge throws up one of the more pronounced track trends across the weekend.
The Punting Form database shows a significant edge for horses settling back after drawing wide, while horses trying to race forward from those same wide barriers have historically faced a much tougher task.
That is worth keeping in mind when assessing the map, particularly if the market is heavily favouring a runner expected to work forward from an awkward draw.
Toowoomba keeps punters guessing
Toowoomba remains one of the more erratic venues in the Punting Form database, despite a sizeable sample.
The track has produced considerable variation in its historical performance data, making the individual map and runner profiles particularly important when attacking Saturday night’s meeting.
Now, to the bets.
Rosehill Race 2 – Xtreme
Xtreme gets the weekend started at around $7.
The four-year-old has recorded the two quickest performances in the field and ranks No.1 across a handful of Punting Form ratings.
There is enough in the underlying data to suggest the market may be underestimating his chances.
Rosehill Race 4 – Starzintheireyes
Starzintheireyes is hardly a secret after being backed from $2.90 into $2.30, but he remains one of the strongest bets of the day.
Since arriving from the UK, his Australian runs have been in even or slowly run races. This time he should finally get a genuine tempo, while James McDonald taking the ride is another obvious positive.
The 1900m looks ideal and his last-600m performance supports what he has been showing visually.
Rosehill Race 5 – Cross Tasman
Decorum is the obvious horse to beat, but Cross Tasman at $4.90 appeals as the betting play.
Punting Form AI has him marked shorter than the available price, while his second-up performance last preparation reads particularly well for this. Add Zac Lloyd into the equation and there is plenty to like at the price.
Rosehill Race 7 – Lazzura
There is no need to overcomplicate the Group 2 Golden Pendant.
Lazzura at $2.20 carries a Perfect Punting Form Score into the race and has won three of her five second-up starts.
She should land around the one-one from the draw and gets James McDonald aboard. There are genuine Group-class mares among the opposition, but the combination of map, profile and ratings makes her hard to get away from.
Rosehill Race 8 – Tron Bolt
The Golden Rose is an outstanding race and Tron Bolt at $14 is the value play.
He has already attracted support from $16 and is rated shorter by Punting Form AI.
His closing sectionals have been excellent and Damian Lane is riding in terrific form. This is obviously a significant rise in grade against a deep field, but the double-figure price compensates for that.
Caulfield Race 2 – Pretty Baby
Pretty Baby is around even money after demolishing many of these same rivals last start.
She produced a -14.4 benchmark in that victory, an enormous performance, and has recorded three of the four fastest last-600m performances in this field. She is deep into the preparation, but the numbers suggest she holds a sizeable performance advantage over her opposition.
Caulfield Race 5 – Another Wil
Backing horses in races featuring Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside hasn’t always been a profitable exercise, but the data points towards Another Wil at $7.
He produced an elite performance last start a fortnight ago, while both the stable and jockey are firing. The market has already moved from $8 into $7 and Punting Form AI again has him rated shorter than the available quote.
Toowoomba Race 2 – The Louvre
The Louvre has already been heavily supported into $2.70, but his Punting Form benchmarks explain why.
He holds a significant closing-speed advantage over his opposition and should be capable of holding Barbray out before producing the stronger finish. He also drops 7kg from his previous start, which only adds to the appeal.
Toowoomba Race 6 – Our Magnus
Our Magnus is the bigger-priced play at Toowoomba.
He gets a 19% map edge according to the Punting Form data and rates strongly through the database. Despite already attracting some support, $18 remains available, while Punting Form AI assesses him considerably shorter.
Murray Bridge Race 2 – Ramasis
Ramasis has been well found by the market, but $6.50 still represents value according to Punting Form AI.
His first-up performance was sharp and he has previously produced some powerful last-600m benchmarks.
Given the broader Murray Bridge data and his performance profile, he looks another worthwhile play.
The roughies
There are another five runners worth keeping onside across the weekend:
- Rosehill R1 – Island Dec ($12)
- Rosehill R9 – Magnatear ($9)
- Caulfield R7 – Moonlight Circus ($29)
- Caulfield R8 – Napoleonic ($13)
- Toowoomba R8 – Esjay ($12)
Suggested bets
- Rosehill R2 – Xtreme ($7)
- Rosehill R4 – Starzintheireyes ($2.30)
- Rosehill R5 – Cross Tasman ($4.90)
- Rosehill R7 – Lazzura ($2.20)
- Rosehill R8 – Tron Bolt ($14)
- Caulfield R2 – Pretty Baby (even money)
- Caulfield R5 – Another Wil ($7)
- Toowoomba R2 – The Louvre ($2.70)
- Toowoomba R6 – Our Magnus ($18)
- Murray Bridge R2 – Ramasis ($6.50)
