Race 2 – Arrowfield Breeders’ Plate (1000m)
Race Grade: Group 3
Race Conditions: 2YO Colts & Geldings, Open, Group 3
Prize Money: $250,000
Start Time: 12:40 pm
Incognito won this race last year. King Kirk the year prior. When was the last good winner of this race? Capitalist? Pierro?
Speed:
Amazingly not a huge amount of speed. FLYING HOUDINI looks the leader. NONU was an impressive trailer and looks likely to get a lovely run irrespective from barrier 3. Sit behind the leader perhaps.
#4 FIJI looks a brilliant type and a classy 2YO. Loved his trial, hate his barrier. A $675,000 Magic Millions purchase from Kia Ora Stud for China Horse Club/Newgate Bloodstock, this Waller trained colt ran moderate time but could not have done more to the rye. He raced in restricted room, but burst through between runners and went to the line under double wraps for McDonald. Big gross colt by I Am Invincible and if there is a positive to the barrier, it means he should get a chance to settle and build up his revs down the outside. Look for him late with momentum. While the fence is often beneficial for these juveniles, the barrier means we could get a better price.
Hoping #9 PROVERB goes to Melbourne as he will be hard to beat down the Flemington straight. The $700,000 Magic Millions purchase drifted back, came with a huge run between horses. Sharp turn of speed which will suit the straight. Can run well here for sure but may need breaks as likely to get back from a middle draw. The other Harron runner #1 CAPITANO trialled similarly. He lacked speed, settled last but charged down the middle of the track to score. Look for him late.
Can definitely see why #8 NONU is favourite. The $600,000 son of Anamoe got chins wagging after an impressive win, taking out Heat 7 on the official 2YO trial morning. He maps superbly from a good barrier, and the stable are absolutely airborne. Major player, it’s all about price.
Summary:
#3 NONU ticks a lot of boxes and is a deserved favourite. The barrier has meant we are getting a bigger price about #4 FIJI. No shock if he is the best horse in this race going forward. Happy to be with him here as we have him marked closer to the favourite. Hope #9 PROVERB in Melbourne and backing there. #1 CAPITANO next.
Betting Suggestions:
#4 FIJI (WIN)
Race 3 – Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes (1000m)
Race Grade: Group 3
Race Conditions: 2YO Fillies, Open, Group 3
Prize Money: $250,000
Start Time: 1:15 pm
SHIKI won this race in 2025, BEL MERCI in 2024 and MANAAL in 2023. COOLANGATTA might be the best recent winner back in 2021.
Speed:
Waterhouse and Bott with three engaged and that is always a reasonable starting point. Most of the speed drawn out wide here which is interesting. RUNAWAY DIVA to work over for Rachel King and have SHEZABLAZE following her. RHYTHM and BOURBON beat adding pressure out wide, wile SHRADDHA kicking up from the inside.
Don’t think the map looks too bad for #12 SHEZABLAZE. She was the pick of the fillies at the official Kensington trial set and happy to be with her here as second market selection. Settling outside lead first up is never ideal, and even more so when you’re a 2YO on debut, but she should have a horse to cart her across and a bunny to chase. The $170,000 daughter of Capitalist looks a ready made 2YO. She jumped well, hunted up along the fence and took over in her trial. She was strong enough through the line and very professional. Slower time than #4 EVERLASTING GRACE who does look a danger. McDonald riding that filly in her trial and staying with her here on race is definitely factored into her price but she does look a nice filly.
#13 SHRADDHA camps in behind and gets a nice run in transit you would think. Has some chance.
Not sure how #1 ANISTON has gained a start in this field.
Summary:
Market says this race is more open than the colts but we aren’t convinced there are many stars here. Colts look stronger. #12 SHEZABLAZE the pick from the trials and we’re siding with her. Could save #4 EVERLASTING GRACE.
Betting Suggestions:
#12 SHEZABLAZE (WIN)
