Race 3: (MDN 1200m)
Tempo: Below Average
No speed and key hopes drawn wide and expected to settle off speed gives (8) CAPITAL EXPRESS a chance to clear maidens, competitive efforts a 2YO and kept up a good gallop to the line in 2nd at Taupo fresh up. With the rail back in the True position and early in the card, Hayey Hassman can take full advantage. (4) PILATES started $1.40 in a fast maiden at Tauranga and finished 3rd, every conceivable chance in the run. If looking for an excuse, perhaps she didn’t let down on the Good 3 surface. Two trials returning, settling rearwards and running on in both, expect that’s how she’s ridden first-up and a risk with the map and projected race shape. (9) JUDY’S SMARTIES has been impressive at the trials, drawn low, hasn’t shown enough early speed at the trials to make use of the draw. (5) LICORICE a hope at odds with any track downgrade.
Suggested Bet: CAPITAL EXPRESS
Race 4: (R75 1200m)
Tempo: Average
Speed runner (7) ROTTEN TOMMY has been strongly supported due to the map, up in grade for this but is expected to receive an uncontested lead and holding his form with a trial win left-handed at Rotorua. Any rain a further advantage. (4) AVANTAGGIA gets the leaders back in the run from barrier four and Craig Grylls, has the class to be winning fresh, however, would need to have improved on her recent trial at Ellerslie to be winning first-up. Stablemate (11) THUMBELINA is a highly progressive mare, handles all surfaces and still lightly raced, she put down a bomb trial in behind Rotten Tommy at Rotorua, she can go forward from a wide draw or settle back to finish off depending on the pattern and is a key winning chance. (1) BULGARI was too far back but hit the line in fast splits at Ellerslie, 59.5kg is a big impost on the backmarker, Opie Bosson rides.
Suggested Bets: ROTTEN TOMMY (Value)
Race 6: (R75 2000m)
Tempo: Above Average
Plenty of speed engaged, there’s a significant rider change with Masa Hashizume replacing the 4kg apprentice on (3) THE PRECURSOR, squeezed and no intent at Ellerslie, the big horse was too much for the apprentice but made late ground. Expecting more intent second-up and is a free-rolling horse suited these stronger-run races as we saw with him winning at Trentham last season, expect him positioned up on or just in behind the speed and is the best bet on the card.
Suggested Bet: PRECURSOR (Best)
Race 9: (R65 1400m)
Tempo: Average
Two-bet play and keen to bet around the favorite. (3) VICTOR TANGO has been given no winning chance in two runs from a spell, slow to begin in both and closing strongly on slow speeds. Winkers come off, pacifiers go on. A talented gelding, on his best behaviour he is well up to winning this race. Wide gate no penalty. (2) FLASHBACK was snicked in a small but quality field at Ellerlie trials and rounded them up in fine style, he looks ready to win first-up and can take a forward position with M McNab aboard. (14) RIPTIDE has opened under the odds in a competitive race stepping up in grade and taking on the older horses. His debut was an impressive Taupo win from the back, destined for 1600m+ and again a tricky set-up as he lacks gate speed and low barrier may see him back and buried.
Suggested Bets: FLASHBACK & VICTOR TANGO
