How good is Caulfield Guineas Day! Three Group 1s, a cracking support card, and one last calm Saturday before the chaos of the Cups.
The rail is back on the true at Caulfield, so let’s start there.
Caulfield track patterns: Wide gates can be an advantage
The two standout squares are wide gates that settle forward or midfield. So if a jockey drawn wide is happy to roll forward, I’m interested.
However, the fence itself isn’t the place to be on the true. Lane 1 is only 0.94. One off the fence is the sweet spot at 1.17. Lanes 5 to 7 hold up fine at 1.07, but once you’re out in lanes 8 to 11 it falls off a cliff at 0.72. Handy, one off, and don’t get carted wide.
Caulfield jockeys: Ethan Brown is flying
Ethan Brown clearly knows the nuance. And he’s red hot at the moment, with 27 winners from his last 100 rides, an A2E of 1.70 and +44.7% on turnover.
He’s 1.34 at Caulfield too. He rides Sabaj in the Toorak, which only makes me like that bet more.
Ben Allen has had a quiet run lately, but Caulfield is his track. He’s 1.16 here and showing a profit over 441 rides.
And the numbers say James McDonald hasn’t loved Caulfield, at 0.85 from 126 rides. I’m still not betting hard against the GOAT on a big day. He’s on Central Europe, Pinhole and Flying For Fun, and I’ll be watching all three.
Rosehill jockeys: Lloyd, Nash and Gibbons in form
Over at Rosehill, a quick look at who’s riding well.
Zac Lloyd is flying. He’s ridden 25 winners from his last 100 rides, with an A2E of 1.21 and showing a profit. It’s not just recent form either. He’s 1.19 at Rosehill over 482 rides.
Nash Rawiller is right there with him. He’s ridden 22 winners from his last 100, with an A2E of 1.28 and +20% on turnover. Nash rides Lindermann, which I’m backing.
Lastly, Dylan Gibbons is quietly the hottest of the lot over his last 100 at 1.39. Worth noting if he’s on something at a price.
Now let’s try to find some winners.
Caulfield Race 3: Astral Flame ($10)
Astral Flame is red hot on the database. Clear top pick for PF AI, and yet we get $10 (thanks to Surfin’ Bird and the next two favourites).
A 14% map edge, early speed and -16.1 last start! Ran well fresh last prep too. Feeling confident at the odds.
Caulfield Race 6: Jigsaw ($2.50)
Backing Jigsaw in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes. vI like horses with a PF Score of 96+. It’s a simple strategy that beats the market. The move from $2.60 to $2.50 is encouraging, but the next two animals in the market are no joke either (Rey and Flying For Fun).
Stable in form and multiple PF ratings confirm Jigsaw is the one to beat.
Caulfield Race 7: Sheza Alibi ($1.40)
Sheza Alibi should win the Might And Power, but I haven’t added her into any all-ups at $1.40.
Caulfield Race 8: Central Europe ($15)
I didn’t back Warwoven last start and still feel a little sick. Hard to steam into $2.30, even though he looks the horse to beat again.
But I’m finding Central Europe at $15. You rarely get JMac and Waller at those odds, and I’ll kick myself if he salutes. The map looks good and he has the potential.
Caulfield Race 9: Sabaj ($10)
I’m excited for the Toorak. Feels like a double-figure winner as I don’t agree with the top of the market. Sabaj is my only bet so far and I’m feeling confident at $10. PF AI has him much shorter, blinkers go on and we get that Ethan Brown positive expected value.
Too Darn Discreet and Sun God also look overs at even bigger quotes.
Rosehill Race 4: Wonka ($7)
Backing (Willy) Wonka at the sevens.
Great last 200m sprint and Chris Waller trained. Maps in a great spot and perfectly suits the 1800m.
Rosehill Race 6: Paradoxium ($2.40)
Paradoxium has a 7% edge by settling on the bunny. Satono Glow, which looks better on the PF database, has a -12% challenge from the back.
The market has baked the price in, with the Bjorn Baker reputation, but I think it’s right. Back the Yulong colt at $2.40 and watch it lead and win.
Rosehill Race 7: Lindermann ($2)
I can’t catch Lindermann, so this is dangerous at $2. But I trust the database. Love Nash and a PF Score of 100 for Waller says it all.
Eagle Farm Race 4: Unloading ($10)
Ashkirk ($4.40) and Unloading ($10) are overs, but I’m just on the latter so far.
Distance, conditions, second-up record and PF AI all support the Dodson three-year-old.
Eagle Farm Race 8: Bluepinot ($4)
Bluepinot claims 1.5kg and has been backed in from $5.50 to $4.
Still shorter on PF AI and leads multiple PF ratings. Maps on pace, out of trouble and should be in the finish.
Morphettville Race 9: Bred ’em All ($2.10)
Bred ’em All has been smashed in the early market ($3 to $2.10) and should continue to tumble.
The Jolly gelding looks the best bet in Adelaide and destined for bigger races.
Extra picks: Three at double-figure odds
There are another three runners worth keeping an eye on at attractive prices.
- Caulfield Race 1: Bring Forth ($34)
- Caulfield Race 10: Run Harry Run ($13)
- Rosehill Race 8: Estadio Mestalla ($18)
