It’s one of the biggest punting days of the year, with the Caulfield Cup and The Everest taking centre stage, and Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne is keen to open the bag.
Beirne has identified three genuine Caulfield Cup winning chances, including one local he expects professional punters to back late. He’s also found three runners he believes are under the odds, while his assessment of The Everest is considerably less bullish.
And for punters looking to take on a favourite, he’s identified another opportunity in Race 6 at Caulfield.
Caulfield Cup: The leading chances
Cosmic Crusader
Cosmic Crusader has been easing in betting, but Beirne believes the market may have gone too far in questioning his credentials.
“Cosmic Crusader is getting soft in the betting, but he’s one of the only horses with a rating to win the race,” Beirne said.
“But for the query around 2400m and the barrier, his price likely starts with a $3. I’m not overly concerned with the distance, although there is some query around a rock-hard track.”
Beirne expects the general public to continue pushing the price out, potentially creating an opportunity for professional punters closer to jump time.
“The public market will see the price drift, but I expect some pros to back him late. We’ll be steady with the price.”
Wine Dark Sea
The international runner brings an intriguing profile, with Beirne particularly taken by his latest performance at Newbury.
“Wine Dark Sea only has the one standout rating in the UK, which came last start at Newbury,” Beirne said.
“But the stamina and acceleration couldn’t be missed.”
Beirne also expects significant late support, particularly through the tote markets.
“World Pool probably holds him up early, but he’s likely to be one of the crashers on the tote late.”
Enfijaar
Enfijaar doesn’t necessarily boast the single standout performance of Wine Dark Sea, but his consistency at a high level and favourable draw make him a genuine contender.
“Enfijaar has a bigger bank of good ratings than Wine Dark Sea,” Beirne said.
“He needs to find a bit more to win, but from barrier one, settling just behind the speed, that’s more likely than not.”
Caulfield Cup: The rough chances
Royal Supremacy
Beirne hasn’t dismissed Royal Supremacy, although he questions whether the horse will enjoy the conditions that have produced his best performances.
“Royal Supremacy’s two peak ratings in Australia came when leading at a gentle pace,” Beirne said.
“He won’t get that luxury here, but he very nearly won the Cup last year despite finishing fifth, beaten 2.6 lengths.”
Kingswood
Kingswood is another capable of running above market expectations, although his likely position in running is a significant concern.
“The map is a big query, but Kingswood has had a brilliant setup for the race, including a personal best seven days ago.”
Caulfield Cup: The horses to take on
Beirne is prepared to oppose three runners he believes are trading at prices that don’t adequately reflect the improvement required.
Half Yours
Half Yours has been building through his preparation, but Beirne suspects his best performance might still be several weeks away.
“This campaign has been a slower burn, but that could be expected given he was already in the Cup field,” Beirne said.
“He’s more likely to ping in the Melbourne Cup than here. He rises 5kg and needs to get back to his Melbourne Cup rating, and even then he’s under the odds.”
Saint George
Saint George’s latest performance is one Beirne is prepared to forgive to some extent, given the way the race unfolded.
“Saint George crashed last start, but the race shape was against him,” Beirne said.
“Prior to that he was building okay, but he needs a personal best plus another length to justify the price.”
Zahrann
Beirne is even more skeptical about Zahrann, whose latest performance fell well short of the level required.
“Zahrann’s Naturalism rating finishes down the field,” Beirne said.
“His UK peak was two lengths higher than that, but I make it that he needs a personal best plus another two lengths. Off the back of that last-start failure, it’s too much.”
Not so Mahervellous: Any Ciaron Maher-trained runner to win the Caulfield Cup: $5.00
The Everest: Even Ka Ying Rising isn’t straightforward
While Beirne has clear views on the Caulfield Cup, his assessment of The Everest is considerably more cautious.
The uncertainty surrounding Sydney’s weather has complicated the form analysis, with the prospect of a very wet track potentially bringing the world’s premier sprinter back towards his rivals.
“The Everest really is a game of guesswork now,” Beirne said.
“Ka Ying Rising is still the best rater by two to four lengths, depending on how I cut it. But if it’s very wet, he comes right back to the field.”
Beirne also reflected on last year’s market, when Ka Ying Rising reached an attractive enough price to prompt a substantial bet.
“The market reached black figures last year, when, as a punter, I had a very strong bet,” he said.
“Does it get there again? I won’t be chasing it out there.”
So what’s the answer for punters trying to solve the $20 million sprint?
“The answer is a pineapple.”
Caulfield Race 6: Cavalry Girl vulnerable at the price
Beirne has a stronger betting opinion in Race 6 at Caulfield, where Cavalry Girl is the runner he’s keen to oppose.
“Cavalry Girl has been impressive of late with a big new career peak last start,” Beirne said.
“But there’s strong pace in this race, so it’s going to be no picnic.”
And it’s not just Cavalry Girl attracting attention. Beirne has identified early professional support for two rivals and expects another to attract money before the jump.
“The sharps have already come for Pallaton and Oak Hill,” he said.
“I expect the money for Pallaton to continue, and I also think they’ll back Hidden Motive.”
His conclusion about the market is straightforward.
“Quite simply, it should be $4 the field.”
Cavalry Girl to run first or second: $2.80
