The Cox Plate takes centre stage at Flemington on Saturday and Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne believes the race presents a fascinating betting puzzle, with a strong tempo likely to play a significant role in the outcome.
Beirne has identified three leading chances in the feature, while also finding an interesting betting opportunity among the three-year-olds. Elsewhere, he’s happy to oppose a short-priced international in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and is taking on Jigsaw once again.
Cox Plate: Three leading chances and a three-year-old special
Sir Delius heads Beirne’s Cox Plate market, with the expected strong tempo and his third-up profile making him the horse to beat.
“Sir Delius is favourite and fair at that. The Turnbull rating looks a query, however, he has a very strong third-up profile and this is his undoubted grand final, free from the distraction of the Melbourne Cup.
“He maps to sit just off the strong lead of Land Legend and Light Infantry Man in the perfect spot.”
Beirne also gives Aeliana a strong chance, particularly if the leaders overdo things, while he isn’t prepared to dismiss Caulfield Cup winner Cosmic Crusader on the quick turnaround.
“Aeliana consistently peaks late into a preparation and will come with the final wave of closers off the likely hot pace. Her deep preparation peaks are generally over 2400m, but she’ll be hitting the line strongly.
“Surely a Melbourne Cup awaits, despite the weight. Her pattern is exactly how Verry Elleegant built.”
As for Cosmic Crusader, Beirne likes the profile of a horse dropping back from 2400m to 2040m.
“Cosmic Crusader might be an afterthought, but does it matter? I don’t think so. The 2400m back to 2040m is a profile I like. His Turnbull rating was strong and the Caulfield Cup effort was good. He gets to the outside in that last wave chasing the hot pace.”
Ceolwulf and Birdman are also in the mix, although Beirne believes both have their limitations at current prices.
“The pace suits Ceolwulf and the distance isn’t a particular issue, but I have him just below the main bunch. My market says he should be double figures.
“Birdman’s map would be horrible at Moonee Valley, so he might be the biggest beneficiary of Flemington. I’d still prefer him under handicap conditions.”
It’s the three-year-olds, however, who provide Beirne with his preferred betting play.
“Caulfield Guineas winners have a terrible Cox Plate record, going 0/9 in the last 30 years. However, Warwoven recorded a very high rating in the Guineas and this race is somewhat devoid of top-line older weight-for-age horses.
“He got too short earlier in the week but is about right now.
“Non-winners of the Guineas have fared better in the Cox Plate, with two winners in So You Think and Shamus Award over the last 30 years. Both were double-figure odds. Blind Raise has a nice profile.”
Cox Plate special: Back either three-year-old to win at $6.
Moonee Valley Gold Cup: An open race with a vulnerable favourite
The Moonee Valley Gold Cup looks an incredibly open contest to Beirne, who has reservations about the price of Joseph O’Brien’s Kizlyar.
“Kizlyar is another for Joseph O’Brien after his horses ran second and third in the Geelong Cup. The ratings here suggest this is a much stronger race than the Geelong Cup, and Kizlyar has inferior figures to Small Fry and Omni Man.
“He looks short, but I can see why people are willing to close their eyes and back these horses in the lesser races.”
Beirne believes the Metropolitan form through Aethelwulf and Juja Kibo deserves plenty of respect, despite The Euphrates failing to frank that form at Geelong on Wednesday.
“Aethelwulf and Juja Kibo bring the Metropolitan form, which looks strong. The Euphrates couldn’t frank it in the Geelong Cup, but he went too hard and was found wanting. This might be different.”
With so many winning chances, Beirne sees little reason for bookmakers to be concerned about taking a position.
“It’s a bookies’ race. Let them on anything.”
Race 5: Taking on Jigsaw again
Jigsaw’s remarkable winning streak has made him one of the most consistent sprinters in the country, but Beirne believes Saturday’s straight-track assignment presents a different challenge.
“Jigsaw has won eight on end. The level and consistency of his ratings is extraordinary. If we consider his 25 starts prior to this winning run, it’s hard to fathom.
“I doubt he’s suited up the straight, as the field will sit closer and there’s no bend to kick off and run clear before the others even know they’re in a race.
“I’m taking him on again.”
Rather than simply opposing Jigsaw, Beirne has identified a margin-based special that appeals at the price.
Race 5 special: Jigsaw to win by 0.6L+ at $5.
