Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Flemington.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played – David Pfundt (Form King)
Gentle winds, 10-15km/h ENE until 3pm and then reported as southerly for the remainder of the card. No real impact on times. For the straight and circle to play the same track speed at Flemington, there’s often no wind impact.
It wasn’t a good day for leaders. None managed to salute and only two horses that settled in the first three managed to win (Surfin’ Bird OSL but 2L off the leader and Smooth Chino, who was 5L off the lead). So, for whatever reason, it was much better to be off the lead.
Across the four straight races, the first two were won up the fence, and Mazu narrowly missed. All four were run and won up the inside, which is rather odd for the Flemington straight.
Only four of 15 placegetters on the circle found the fence in run/OSL (3, 1), and so it does present as a bit of a fence-off meeting around the circle. No winners on the circle sat on the fence, but Surfin’ Bird was one off, kind of OSL but 2L off the leader.
So perhaps the fence/inside was OK in the straight races, but not on the circle? Not going to read too much into it with form coming out of the meeting.
The Cox Plate had its first trip away from home; for the first time, it was run at Flemington Racecourse instead of the cauldron of Moonee Valley, two miles down the road.
It did not feel like Cox Plate Day, if I’m honest, and it’s paramount that the Cox Plate is retained by the MVRC. For whatever reason, The Valley and the Cox Plate need each other. Because what would be the difference between the Champions Stakes, the Turnbull and the Cox Plate, all run within a month of each other? The Cox Plate will become just another race if it does not return to Moonee Valley.
All we can do is hope that the new track at Moonee Valley is similar to the old. It was different, and I’ve never missed it more than I did yesterday. I love Flemington; it’s where I grew up watching racing. But if everything’s all the same, and it’s not the tight-turning velodrome that we know and love, it’ll be a blight on racing in Victoria. Obscurity is awesome, and it’s fun; it’s the reason the Cox Plate is what it is.
Race 1: LD-S-8: -0.3L, LD-8-4: -0.5L, LD-4-F: -1.3L, WNR-4-F: -0.2L, @WTS: 94.4, @WFA: 92
Racing began with Stokke returning to form, much to my surprise, but not to all punters. She was well supported throughout betting, opening $41.00 and starting $24.20 on the exchange.
The field split in two after a furlong, and Stokke, having drawn barrier two, was well positioned relative to the eventual pattern of the day. The pace was very even throughout; quite literally every single split for five furlongs was within one length of par. This is how far in front or behind the leader was through each furlong of the race: 10-8 -0.3, 8-6 -0.7, 6-4 +0.2, 4-2 -0.3, 2-F -1.
Stokke had quite a long spell prior to returning this campaign and hadn’t come to hand in three runs. This was quite the form reversal, but she, of course, beat Rey Magnerio, Major Share and Coleman in a Listed race on Oaks Day last year. I would be surprised if they didn’t back her up to race again during the carnival. She can improve from this, even if she was favoured.
Ice Kool, who was fancied as favourite, certainly raced below my expectations. This was the worst performance over five furlongs of his career, but perhaps that was because he was in inferior ground.
Race 2: LD-S-8: -1.9L, LD-8-4: +4.5L, LD-4-F: -1.1L, WNR-4-F: +0.7L, @WTS: 89.5, @WFA: 93
Historically, the Red Anchor was a terrible edition, but that’s to be said of very many three-year-old features this season.
Buggsy narrowly defeated The Speed Machine and Valaroso, who respectively had been beaten in a Pakenham Synthetic BM74 and had won a maiden at Seymour. This form is awful, and it won’t translate well at all.
The first quarter-mile was rather slow, but the pace improved thereafter. The pace was at its fiercest between the 800 and 200 metres, particularly the 600 to 400-metre split. They could not sustain such pace, and the concluding furlong was very slow.
Race 3: LD-S-8: +11.9L, LD-8-4: +0.7L, LD-4-F: -7.8L, WNR-4-F: -6.5L, @WTS: 84.2, @WFA: 90.4
Speaking of terrible, so was The Vase. True Rebel raced to a figure of 90.4 to win the staying feature and is current favourite to win the VRC Derby.
I could not disagree with that more.
It isn’t a vintage Derby, but the Derby remains one of the great betting races each and every year; this year’s no different, even if there isn’t an Observer or Riff Rocket atop the standings. There are two colts from Sydney who I’ve long thought were the two for the Derby since the J.J. Atkins, and it sounds as if both will run. Cormier and Stormy Marco would have decimated this field, should they have run in this instead of the Spring Champion.
Skua and Winter’s Arc raced through the first half-mile well above par, just shy of six lengths faster than what is typical. They then incrementally increased the speed further up until they reached the 600 metres, which was thirteen lengths ahead of par. The race fell to pieces thereafter, and the race from the clocktower to the finish seemed to take an eternity.
I’ve long thought True Rebel would run in the Derby; he strides as if he’d stay two miles, despite his sprinting pedigree, but I’d never have thought he’d be favourite. I still don’t.
Cormier made the pace in the Spring Champion and was beaten by a very talented filly, and as close as certainties come in the Oaks. He’s a big, slow-striding son of Maurice, out of an Oaks winner. He races on pace and will stay a mile and a half. He’s first seed, and comfortably ahead of True Rebel, even though I do think True Rebel can improve from this.
Perhaps Skua will be a blowout option; he surely won’t be fancied, and there might be a pace angle to suggest he can improve and beat the favourite.
Hierarchy has spiralled toward the top of the market. He is a terrible price. He strides like a sprinter-miler and simply ran his race most efficiently. He wasn’t reeling the leaders in; he was still well behind par over the last 400 metres. I think it may be a case of him being a very talented miler, and perhaps one to find in an Australian Guineas next year, but good enough to look not disgraced in this field despite not staying the distance.
Race 4: LD-S-8: +0.2L, LD-8-4: +0.9L, LD-4-F: +1.4L, WNR-4-F: +4L, @WTS: 90.4, @WFA: 94.4
Caddington tore down a good assembly of fillies in the Crockett Stakes, and did it for a good cause, which is nice.
At just her third racetrack appearance, Caddington, who was a marked drifter on race day, was much the best and will be something to beat in the Red Roses on Oaks Day.
She had raced once in a five-furlong race at Sandown before a spell, and then broke her maiden by five lengths at Kyneton in fast time. She was unfancied on race day, eventually starting $15.80 on the exchange.
The pace was slightly better than par through the first quarter-mile and built thereafter. Caddington unravelled a scintillating last 600 metres to overhaul Aroused and Chayan, who were good in defeat.
CADDINGTON WINS THE CROCKETT 🩷
From Kyneton to Flemington, what a win!
@TheBeeegan @HowleyRacing https://t.co/ucejUWAem2
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 24, 2026
Aroused, who had raced only once prior, travelled strongly throughout, racing to a new peak. She was firm in betting and started second favourite behind Angels Fury. It would not be a surprise to see her turn the tables on Caddington at their next start, especially returning to 1100 metres in the Red Roses.
Chayan raced as well as she could have, very much returning to her level as a two-year-old, but it seems as though she hasn’t improved from two to three.
Angels Fury ran to a new peak, at least on Form King’s scale, and I was surprised to see her so heavily backed. I have long thought she is not quite as good as the regard in which she is held, but perhaps she can improve. This was her first run this campaign, and she was well thought of, and who’s to doubt the market? Maybe barrier one had a part to play in the move for her, but still, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, between what she’s done and the strong opinion the market has for her.
Race 5: LD-S-8: +0.9L, LD-8-4: -1.7L, LD-4-F: -1.9L, WNR-4-F: +1.7L, @WTS: 98, @WFA: 98
Smooth Chino returned to his best form in the west in the McEwen Stakes, winning under a well-timed ride to nab Mazu, who was brave as ever in defeat.
Some of the jockeys behind Mazu, and certainly behind Jigsaw, might have a little to answer for, because the pace was far slower than what it might have appeared. Visually, Mazu was ripping along in fast time, but that wasn’t entirely the case. He was fast through the first quarter-mile, but only a length faster than par. The riders in the peloton gave Mazu a five-length advantage, when realistically they should have been at his girth. Austin Galati got away with it and had the horse underneath him to win irrespective of the unusual race scenario.
McEwen Stakes | Smooth Chino
The Western Australians conquer the McEwen Stakes with Smooth Chino ✅ Austin Galati rides his first winner at Flemington 👏
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/HEhdpozFmy https://t.co/2R5DahFu0V— Racing.com (@Racing) October 24, 2026
Even if Extragalactic, Rey Magnerio and others were somewhat mismanaged, they didn’t particularly make much of an impression, and many were well below their form. Extragalactic was poor and is certainly not a top-line sprinter, even if the market continues to project her as such.
Jigsaw put in a bad one, but he was due. His winning streak has finally come to an end, but he’s in great hands to return to form.
Many of these will run in The Meteorite and perhaps the Winterbottom, but if any line up in the Champions Sprint, Tempted will give them windburn.
Race 6: LD-S-8: -8.6L, LD-8-4: +2.5L, LD-4-F: +1.7L, WNR-4-F: +3.2L, @WTS: 100.9, @WFA: 100.1
The Crystal Mile was another race in which the pace wasn’t what it seemed. A few of the beaten jockeys, including the world’s best, gave their mounts terrible rides.
To the five-furlong point, Astral Flame led the race eight lengths slower than par, despite the margin spread throughout the field being ten lengths at the same point.
Surfin’ Bird was the beneficiary of this, settling behind the speed and sprinting well to overhaul Astral Flame and eventually staving off Buckaroo, who should’ve won the race.
🔸 Victorian-bred G2 Winner 🔹
Surfin’ Bird (The Autumn Sun x Summer Surf) finishes strongly to score for @waterhousebottracing at @flemingtonVRC, with @JChilds47 in the saddle.
Congratulations to her breeders, @MakybeS!
#VicBreeders @RacingVictoria https://t.co/F94gnerRCz
— TBV (@vicbreeders) October 24, 2026
With a rating of 100.1, she’ll certainly be competitive in the Empire Rose, especially with Pride Of Jenni now being ruled a non-runner, and she should be on the second or third line of betting.
Her biggest asset is that she races on pace, and is the beneficiary of advantages such as this race provided. Pride Of Jenni now not running enhances her chances enormously.
Buckaroo should have won the race and was poorly ridden relative to pace. He’s in a precarious position, though, where he’s probably not good enough to win the Champions Mile or the Champions Stakes, but he’s in great form. Perhaps the Northerly in Western Australia might be an option for him. His ownership group won that race with Light Infantry Man in 2024.
Enxuto, Von Hauke and Sun God are racing well and can win respective races throughout the remainder of the carnival.
Race 7: LD-S-8: -13.8L, LD-8-4: +0.5L, LD-4-F: +2.9L, WNR-4-F: +5.9L, @WTS: 101.8, @WFA: 100.5
Juja Kibo essentially matched the level of form he produced in the Metropolitan Handicap to win his way into the Melbourne Cup.
It was a travesty when he didn’t gain a start in the Caulfield Cup, and it’s certainly a travesty now. Racing is not so simple that because he ran this rating here, he’d have run this rating there, but it’s hard to think he wouldn’t have won it.
Connections may be ruing that, but they have a runner in the Melbourne Cup, so there can’t be much to complain about.
The pace was terribly slow to the 1200-metre point. Craig Williams elected to slow the pace to a canter upon reaching the lead aboard Aethelwulf. The pace between the 1200 and 800 metres was almost ten lengths slower than what is typical. Remarkable. It certainly didn’t suit his horse, either.
The race exploded thereafter, and it became a test of speed rather than stamina.
I find it incredible that this was a ticket into the Melbourne Cup field, and that there seemed to be such little intention to let these stayers use their assets. These are horses bred to race through a brick wall and find and find under pressure. Instead, many runners could not win due to the nature of the pace.
Juja Kibo has now won two races with speed, and perhaps that’s a concern rising to two miles, but it’s impossible to suggest that he can’t win the Melbourne Cup; who’s to say he wouldn’t have won even if the pace were fast?
The Irish runner, Kizlyar, a winner over 4000 metres at Royal Ascot, was backed off the boards but could not quicken. He raced well below the expectation of the market.
King’s Valley, who is in tremendous form, it must be said, ran the fastest last 200 metres of the entire day. That is truly nonsensical.
Race 8: LD-S-8: +12.3L, LD-8-4: -5.3L, LD-4-F: -1.9L, WNR-4-F: +1.7L, @WTS: 105.6, @WFA: 105.6
West was certainly best at Flemington on Cox Plate Day. Cosmic Crusader took advantage of the long Flemington straight, spiralling past a good field and winning with a rating of 105.6.
As was expected, the pace was searching. Land Legend and Light Infantry Man, who were slightly slow to begin, incrementally increased the pace until reaching the 800 metres.
To the six-furlong point, they had raced more than six lengths faster than par, and increased the speed once more between the 1200 and 800 metres. At the four-furlong point, Land Legend was twelve lengths inside standard.
At the 400 metres, horses positioned 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th filled the first five placings at the finish. It was certainly an advantage to be well behind the speed, and none were favoured more so than Cosmic Crusader. He dominated this field, overhauling them with brilliant sustained speed.
He raced to a new career peak, and was something like a typical Cox Plate winner. Perhaps he was best positioned relative to the race, and he did run his race most evenly, but even still, he was the right winner of this race, and a good one at that.
Birdman repeated his figure in the Underwood Stakes and put to bed any suggestion that he does not cope with a stamina-laden race. He was marginally held up, but did not do enough through the final split to suggest he should have won the race.
Aeliana was as good as she’s ever been over ten furlongs; her peak remains the Tancred Stakes, and it’s truly a shame that we will not see her in the Melbourne Cup. Chris Waller does so much right, but in my view, he’s certainly gotten this one wrong. She should be at the very least a Caulfield Cup winner by now, and perhaps she’d have won the Melbourne Cup next Tuesday. She’d certainly have been one of the runners I’d have on side.
Sir Delius was disappointing. Perhaps he’s not racing as well as he has in prior campaigns. There’s a notion that he raced too close to the pace, but that’s pathetic. They went too fast for you, did they? No, he thrived on pressure in the Queen Elizabeth and raced through the pain barrier there.
There was commentary from Adrian Bott after the race that he has improvement to come. That can’t be true, and the following line of questioning should have been, “Well, why was he not screwed down for a Cox Plate, mate?”
Not that anyone would know if it were, because the horses only paraded on one side of the mounting yard because there was a stage blocking the left-hand side. I’m sure it won’t happen again, but that is truly not good enough, and only racing could hinder itself so blatantly.
Warwoven was badly hampered and had his momentum halted at an important stage of the race. Because the pace was so fast, small interferences and stoppages of momentum become monumental. When a horse is stopped in their tracks such as that, and they’re already tiring by that point in the race, it’s hard to find again.
He’s to be forgiven, and the support for him was relentless. He started favourite on the exchange. He’s a special colt, and he might be better again in the autumn. He was beaten here, but he certainly lost no admirers.
Race 9: LD-S-8: -10.8L, LD-8-4: -0.4L, LD-4-F: +1.2L, WNR-4-F: +3.3L, @WTS: 94.6, @WFA: 93.4
Soverato was well backed and sent the punters home with a winner, staving off Shockletz to win the Tesio Stakes.
As always, the pace was paramount, and in this case, it was slow. There was a cluster of mares that vied for the early lead, but that did nothing for the speed. Sunset Park and Jenni’s Meadow were ten lengths behind par upon reaching the six-furlong marker.
The speed then increased marginally between the 1000 and 600 metres, and then became a three-furlong sprint upon entering the straight. Soverato was beautifully positioned by Damian Lane and raced to a new career peak. Presumably, the Matriarch is the next option for her, and she’ll be something like favourite for that race.
Too Darn Discreet was unfavoured by the speed, and if the Matriarch develops into an aerobic test, I’d still favour her to win the race. She was heavily supported on race day and expected to run to near her peak. That is what I will be forecasting her to on Stakes Day.
Shockletz is building nicely toward her Melbourne Cup tilt. I doubt whether she can win, but she’ll almost certainly run well.
Sun Gift and Private Legacy are others that will be highly competitive in the Matriarch Stakes, provided they run.
