Save the Derby, weaken the Cox Plate: racing’s $5 million own goal
The rumoured push to placate the Asian Pattern Committee and have the Victoria Derby run at 2000m for $5 million next year could further weaken the Cox Plate.
Why would three-year-olds take on the older horses in the Cox Plate if they can run for such a big prize against their own age?
The debate from Victoria about the Golden Eagle effect on the Cox Plate has been self-righteous and has not taken into account the commercial realities of the spring changes.
The spring has changed, in some ways not for the better, but the majority of changes have added to racing’s footprint at the most important time of the year.
But the Derby move would be an own goal for the Melbourne spring, where the Cox Plate becomes a race for five-year-olds and above.
It doesn’t account for three races at 2000m and above in the two weeks leading into the Derby.
The reason for the move is to keep the Derby as a Group 1, but surely those making the decision have to understand what it does to the overall Pattern or program.
It highlights the ratings-based nature of the Asian Pattern Committee’s approach to Group racing again. Australian racing is consistently underrated in the international numbers, which is starting to have a direct impact on the Pattern.
The same is happening in New Zealand, which could be left without international Group 1 racing if the numbers are allowed to be the only arbiter.
If you don’t get the ratings, you don’t keep the status.
The problem was highlighted by Cosmic Crusader’s Bob Peters saying after the Cox Plate that the win helps the Northerly Stakes in its battle to retain Group 1 status.
The Victoria Derby went to $3 million this year, but it doesn’t change the pool of horses challenging for the Classic.
The problem for the Derby is Flemington’s design, which stretches it to 2500m with a short run to the first turn, adding pressure on horses stepping up in trip for the first time.
The Cox Plate at Flemington did show you can get a start out to 2040m, so perhaps adding a chute for a 2100m start with a straight run would be a solution.
It would mirror what happened successfully in France when it dropped its Derby back in trip in 2025.
It has to be remembered that the Victoria Derby, in terms of its place in the season, is a month earlier than the English Derby, Kentucky Derby and French Derby and is run over a trip 100m longer.
Purton still hunting a good Cup ride
Zac Purton is still looking for a Melbourne Cup ride and will stay in Australia after riding Autumn Boy in Saturday’s Golden Eagle.
The champion jockey will serve a one-meeting suspension between the Golden Eagle and Cup Day, so he doesn’t need to return to Hong Kong.
“It was good to get the call to ride Autumn Boy, which is one of the leading chances in the race,” Purton said. “Sheza Alibi will be very hard to beat but he is the best colt in the race.
“I’m still trying to get a Cup ride. That is the race I have grown up dreaming about winning like any Australian jockey.
“I’m going to be down there, but they are hard to find.”
Bookies in strong position heading into Cup week
The knock-on effect of Ka Ying Rising’s defeat in The Everest has bookmakers in a strong position heading into the biggest betting week of the year.
Up to 75 percent of multis featured the Hong Kong star at some agencies, leaving them with some margin to play with for the remainder of the spring.
It doesn’t explain why future markets are so tight, betting huge percentages with virtually no variation or competition.
The search to relax Paradoxium
Bjorn Baker and Jason Collett believe the key to Coolmore Stud Stakes victory for Paradoxium is getting him to contain his instinct to run.
Paradoxium overdid it in the Roman Consul Stakes, where he faded for fourth, so he had a crossover noseband applied for his trial down the Flemington straight last Friday.
It was a test that failed.
“He just fought it all the way and you saw how far he won the trial by,” Collett said.
“I don’t think we will use them in the Coolmore because he can relax without it.
“He is naturally fast but if he can have a back to follow that can be more explosive.
“If he is relaxed and focused, he is as good as any of the three-year-olds around. I think he can do that if his attitude is right.”
Cosmic Crusader remains underrated by punters, and if the Cox Plate winner continues to Champions Day, it will mean Australia’s three best horses will be on show at Flemington. Tempted and Autumn Glow will be well into the red, but Cosmic Crusader will be the value of the three.
One from the stewards
For those who followed the money with Ciaron’s Star, the stewards’ report detailed how nothing went right.
“Collett reported that after being loaded the filly became fractious and attempted to sit down on several occasions. He added that Ciaron’s Star was then slow to begin (2L). Held up for clear running from the 400m until approaching the 200m, where it was directed back to the inside of Punxsutawney Phil to obtain clear running.”
Ciaron’s Star might be one to follow as she heads to Melbourne.
One for the bookies
Sir Delius at his best is in the top echelon of horses in the country, but he is proving a hard puzzle for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott to solve. The admission he would take improvement from the Cox Plate was amazing. It is time to put him on the watch list rather than the back list.
One for the futures
They have chosen to keep King Of Light at home in Western Australia, rather than bringing him over for the Golden Eagle. He should get into the Railway Stakes with the right weight, and a lack of quality raiders makes the $4.50 very attractive.
