The Melbourne Cup is the biggest betting race of the year, and Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne has some strong opinions on where the value lies in Tuesday’s $10 million feature.
In this edition of Take Us On, Beirne puts his bookmaker’s hat on to assess the 3200m contest, identifying four runners he wants to keep onside and five he’s happy to oppose at their current prices.
He’s already backed one of his leading chances pre-post, believes two progressive stayers are capable of making their presence felt and is wary of several runners who look shorter than their form warrants.
And for those looking for something different, he’s also identified a $6 special involving Joseph O’Brien’s powerful international contingent.
Here’s how Beirne sees the Melbourne Cup.
Shaun’s top four
1. Point Of Law
Can’t miss the Geelong Cup win. On my ratings, that equalled the same career peak he set at his last run in the UK before coming across.
The 2kg penalty has dampened my confidence in the horse, but I have him clearly on top and wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong push late, assuming we’re on a good track.
One I’ll keep onside and have backed pre-post.
2. Juja Kibo
I like this horse. The wins in the Metropolitan and Moonee Valley Cup were back-to-back personal bests.
He presents fifth-up, which is generally a positive factor.
He’s a better horse now than when he failed in the Sydney Cup in the autumn, and he had excuses in that race.
He’s trimmed up to about the right odds now.
3. Mr Monaco
Fifth-up off a personal best. Like stablemate Juja Kibo, he failed in the Sydney Cup, and like Juja, he’s going much better now.
He’s won four of eight in Australia, discounting first-up runs, and three of six at 2400m and beyond. I can’t get longer than $21.
4. Trustyourinstinct
Of those having their first start in Australia, the market has correctly identified him as the best chance.
The Curragh Cup win was strong, and being beaten 4.5 lengths at level weights by Scandinavia in the Irish St Leger is good form.
Importantly, he had a run in September before coming across.
Happy to oppose
These are the runners Beirne believes are either too short in the market or face significant hurdles to winning the Cup.
Hopewell Rock
The Ebor Handicap win was good. The rider dropped the whip 200m from home, otherwise he might have won and rated a little higher.
He has the ratings to win, but resuming off 73 days is a big negative.
He was $13 today, attracted good money and is back into $12.
James J Braddock
Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds no longer get the weight advantage that Rekindling and Cross Counter enjoyed.
He maps poorly and his UK ratings aren’t strong enough.
Shockletz
I think she’ll be very popular, so I won’t have to push hard to lay her. She’s had a clever preparation since securing his ticket in The Archer.
Se needs to find another two lengths or more on her current personal best to justify the price.
She’ll be a loser in the book, it’s just a matter of what price I put him in at.
So You Are
Not one I’m heavily against, but he should be more like $21 to $26. He’ll be popular on the totes, and I should be able to lay him at shorter odds.
He’s been winning and gets a good map. It would be no shock to see him finish in the top six, but I’m against him for the win.
It would be a remarkable effort if he could win 14th-up from a genuine spell.
Middle Earth
He seems short now. I have him two to three lengths below his previous best in Australia, but the trainer has been very bullish.
Barrier one is perfect for him, and he’ll run the 3200m.
He’s a top-six chance for me, but I’m not sure he can find the new peak required to win the race.
Of the rest…
Beirne also gives notable mentions to Enfjaar, Sons And Lovers, Zahrann, Soul Of Spain and Goodie Two Shoes.
He’s happy to put a line through the remaining runners.
Bet Legends special
O’Brien’s Army: Any Joseph O’Brien-trained runner to win the Melbourne Cup @ $6
With Joseph O’Brien bringing a strong team to Flemington, Beirne has identified a special that gives punters multiple chances of finding the Cup winner through the Irish trainer’s runners.
