Coming off a cracking week that produced several winners, the Punting Form team is back with a bumper Derby Day Data Drop, uncovering track trends, market edges and betting opportunities across five major meetings.
The first day of the Flemington Carnival. Four Group 1s, and then the $10M Sheza Alibi Golden Eagle.
I’ve given up predicting the weather. There was 20mm forecast for Flemington early in the week. Now it’s 6 to 9mm, and the track is a Good 4. That matters more than usual tomorrow, because a few of the favourites need rain and a few really don’t.
Randwick is a Good 4 with the rail true, and only a sprinkle forecast. Morphettville Good, Doomben Heavy and Ascot Soft, with the rail out 9m. The track conditions report on Punting Form has every joint in the country, including the metros:
Flemington track trends
With the rail true at Flemington, the best run styles are Midfield + a Middle/Wide barrier.
Push forward from an inside gate (0.82) or a wide gate (0.84) and you’re up against it. The lane data says the same thing. Lanes 3 to 7 off the fence beat the market (1.08 and 1.12). Lane 1 is a disaster at 0.74, and an interesting live betting strategy for those that are bold Betfairers.
On the jockeys, Mark Zahra is 1.27 over his last 100 rides and he’s on The Next Episode. And as I said last week, Ben Melham and Mick Dee beat the market well on big samples. And JMac? 0.89 over his last 100, but that won’t stop me or most punters tomorrow.
Randwick track trends
Randwick has an even cleaner formula. Inside + Forward barrier is an 18% edge. Lanes 5-7 when the rail is true, is a 20% edge.
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Pinup Sheila ($4.90)
Small bet to warm up. She’s third up, gets James McDonald and a big flat track. Maps well, PF AI super supportive. Presents better in the data than the fav.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – St Gotthard ($4.40)
The Coolmore. What a race.
The Next Episode ($3.80) is the right favourite if it rains. Every win he’s had has been on a soft or heavy track. But on a Good 4, you can see the closing sectionals from St Gotthard ($4.40).
Blinkers on first time, Waller and JMac, and the Golden Rose is the strongest form line.
Under Focus is also overs at $16. Saver.
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m – Stormy Marco ($4.80)
Backing Stormy Marco.
I’ve never had so many JMac bets in one email. The value of Derby Day.
Stormy Marco is bred for the distance, handles the wet if it comes, and JMac can drop him out from barrier 15 and run home down the middle (hopefully lane 6/7).
Can understand the love for Cormier (PF AI’s top pick, and fastest last start) but I’m with Stormy Marco.
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Concord Connie ($5.50)
Feel a little sick taking Concord Connie at $5.50 after they bet 9s. So I’ll wait for it to hopefully drift out tomorrow.
Lady Shenandoah ($2.60) is the best mare in the race and should attract plenty of money.
The case for Connie is that the 1600m at Flemington will suit. Look at her prep before. Three runs, three wins, and the third up at Flemington on a Good 4 was the best of them.
Got work to do from the back but Craig Williams will have her in the finish.
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Flying For Fun ($2.50)
More JMac. Gee whiz.
But I’m not on yet. This is weather dependent. Like me, she’s only up and about when the sun is shining. Good 4, bet up. Soft 6, pass.
Strongest closing speed in the field, best jockey in the world, maps out of traffic.
Randwick Race 7 – 1300m – Ninja ($5)
Pericles ($16) might be overs but I’m backing Ninja ($5) in the G2 Russell Balding.
Ran well in the Everest after being ridden too close to a hot speed. Tommy Berry’s beating the market by 21% on his last 100, Michael Freedman’s always in front of the market and there has been a little speccing for it in the early market.
Headwall and Jimmysstar look short.
Randwick Race 8 – 1500m – Sheza Alibi ($1.80)
Backing the favourite but not going crazy. Nolen’s A2E is 0.56 on his last 100 (rarely see a jockey going that bad) and there’s plenty of traffic.
But elite animal, PF Score 99 and up to the $10M pressure.
Randwick Race 9 – 2000m – Militarize ($12)
The market has collapsed on Barrengarry and Starzintheireyes.
Considered Tavi Time at 17s but only bet is Militarize, who has the stronger recent form. 17s into 12s, loves the 2000m and is piloted by Purton.
Doomben Race 6 – 1200m – Champagne Lane ($4)
Champagne Lane has been smashed, and I’m following the steam. The Heavy 10 at Doomben is absolutely perfect and she has the closing speed to get the chocolates.
Morphettville Race 1 – 1050m – It’sanotherbattle ($1.70)
Trying to steal something on It’sanotherbattle.
Perfect PF Score, maps well and fastest last start by 6 lengths! If you don’t mind.
Ascot Race 6 – 1100m – Afireofgidgeecoals ($2.40)
This race sets up perfectly for Afireofgidgeecoals.
Morton + Fiore is a winning combo, fastest benchmarks in the field and map looks perfect.
A few more roughies
- Flemington R6: Mbube ($26)
- Flemington R9: Eagle Express ($31)
- Randwick R6: Enamorada ($10)
- Doomben R9: Flying Destiny ($17)
