TAB Punters stick with the stars as Champions Day market takes shape

The Melbourne Cup Carnival ends at Flemington on Saturday, and punters are sticking with the established stars. That’s no surprise: every Group 1 of the Carnival so far has been won by the favourite.

Three $3 million Group 1s close out the week: Champions Sprint, Champions Mile and Champions Stakes. The late fixed-odds money has again gone to the top of the market. Tempted, Autumn Glow and Cox Plate winner Cosmic Crusader have all been heavily backed to keep the streak going. One thing could change all of that: rain is in the forecast.

Cosmic Crusader has firmed from $3.70 to $3.30 for the TAB Champions Stakes. Saturday will be his eighth run of the campaign, a long preparation by any standard, but punters aren’t worried. Andrea Leek’s gelding keeps finding something extra.

He isn’t the favourite, though. Chris Waller’s Aeliana has been backed from $3.10 into $2.50 and heads the market for the 2000m feature. If you’re backing the favourite to keep the Carnival trend alive, she’s the one.

The best of the support behind the top two has gone to Omni Man. Joseph O’Brien’s import has been cut from $18 to $12. That shouldn’t surprise anyone who saw his only Australian run, when he charged home into third in the Geelong Cup behind Point Of Law, who went on to win the Melbourne Cup.

Not every high-profile runner is attracting money. Birdman, Waller’s second string, has eased from $5 to $6, and Sir Delius has drifted from $6 to $7.50.

In the Champions Sprint, Tempted ($1.80) is the shortest-priced favourite of the day, and the money in that race is fighting over the minor placings. Caballus has come in from $15 to $10 for Ben Baker, and Joliestar has firmed from $6 to $4.80. Former star sprinter Giga Kick has drifted from $21 to $41.

The Champions Mile looks like Autumn Glow’s to lose. Waller’s mare is $1.20, one of the shortest prices of the Carnival, and punters are expecting another win for the favourite.

The Fisher Stakes is where the market has moved most. Hankee Alpha has been backed from $4.20 into $3 for Cindy Alderson. He’s backing up quickly after having no luck in the Rising Fast last Saturday, and punters think he’s owed one. The bigger story is Watchme Win, who has been backed from $23 to $11 for Andrew Gluyas, the kind of move that gets bookmakers’ attention. Cripps has gone the other way, drifting from $6.50 to $11.

The day opens with the Inglis Banner, and the 2yo race is a punting puzzle because the field is full of debutantes. The most interesting move is a long-priced one. Dark Sister, a filly trained by Emma-Lee and David Browne at Pakenham, has been backed from $81 into $26. At the top of the market, debut winner Soldi has firmed from $3.90 to $3.10 for the Hayes team and is a clear favourite.

O’Brien has another runner being backed in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Defiantly has been cut from $6.50 to $4.80, and Litzdeel ($8.50 to $6) has also been supported. Waller’s Pinhole remains favourite despite easing slightly to $3.10.

The Matriarch has one of the day’s more surprising moves. Vivy Air has been well backed from $4.80 to $3.60 and is now favourite, even though her last two starts produced a third and a fifth. In the last race, Electric Elvis ($15 to $10) is the main mover in the HKJC World Pool Grand Handicap, while Rohesia has gone the other way, drifting from $18 to $34.

Flemington is currently rated a Good 4. If the forecast rain arrives, the favourites’ winning streak could be tested, and expect plenty of these markets to be reshaped before the first race at 12:40pm.